3
Mar

Bull Trap and Target Level Update for Copper JJC

What looked like a possible bullish breakout devolved today into a trap as Copper buyers failed to hold the breakout level.

Let’s update our chart of Copper – and ETF JJC – and plan where were go from here:

Similar to Crude Oil, Copper fell through the end of 2014 and at the beginning of 2015, though a positive divergence developed at the lows.

A spike reversal took price all the way  again like oil – to the falling 50 day EMA (blue).

Copper prices – seen here with the @HG futures contract – initially broke the level into $ 2.640 but soon fell back under the pivot point to trigger a possible Bull Trap.

Note the $ 2.6000 level as the short-term bull/bear pivot level.

A break above $ 2.7000 suggests price can quickly trade toward $ 2.8000 (bullish scenario) while a break under $ 2.6000 suggests the selling pressure will return, taking price toward $ 2.4500 and perhaps lower.

The situation is the same in the related ETF symbol JJC:

The logic is the same, only the pivot and target levels are different.

Focus on $ 32.00 as the upper pivot (along with $ 32.50) and then the $ 31.50 level as the lower pivot.

A trigger break lower – especially one that breaks under $ 31.00 – suggests a sell signal down toward $ 30 and $ 29.

Otherwise, a resumption of the breakout into the green zone triggers above $ 32.50.

Keep watching these levels from within the neutral point where we are now.

Join my colleague John Carter for another exciting webinar Tuesday! Click the image below for more information:

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

2
Mar

Three Strong Country ETFs Joining the US at New Highs

As we chart the US S&P 500 (and related ETFs) flirting with more all-time highs, let’s compare the US strength with three countries whose related ETFs are also at similar new highs.

We’ll start our adventure around the world with India (INDY):

This post is designed simply to highlight these country ETFs and their bullish trend structure and new highs.

India has strengthened noticeably through 2014 and the relative strength continues with bullish action in 2015.

The INDY ETF price level to watch is the $ 33.00 per share zone and the potential for more upside action.

We’ll travel a bit further east now to China, viewing iShares ETF FXI:

Unlike India, China traded in a wide range from 2012 to 2014 and we’re now seeing the ETF price break through the current resistance shy of $ 44.00 per share.

Focus your attention on the $ 44.00 per share simple level for possible continuation of the bullish trend.

With the exception of late 2014, the fund has enjoyed a continual upswing from $ 33.00 to $ 44.00.

We’ll conclude our journey around the world with Japan, using iShares ETF EWJ:

Unlike the other two countries – and the United States – Japan saw major strength at the beginning of 2013 but a stall or two-year sideways range develop between the $ 11.00 and $ 12.00 per share ETF level (a small range like that makes traders turn their attention elsewhere).

Nonetheless, shares bounced powerfully off the $ 11.00 level twice in 2014 and now we’re seeing similar bullish ’straight up’ price action that just saw a slight new high achieved.

While the ETF is indeed at the new high level, it’s probably best to turn attention elsewhere given the price and range of the fund.

For contrarians, Japan’s ETF could be an aggressive short-sale candidate in the event the range continues and price reverses down against the old resistance level.

Even if you don’t trade overseas ETFs, it can be helpful to chart country ETFs to highlight strength and weakness and identify where the broader money may be flowing.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

28
Feb

Yes Stocks can Still Fall Market Update and Trending Stock Scan Feb 27

Strangely, stock prices can actually fall and today’s session so far is a very similar if not almost identical repeat of yesterday’s morning session.

We’ll be following and trading price action with respect to whether today fully repeats yesterday or else creates a new intraday structure at key levels.

Here’s the Structure and Planning Levels on the S&P 500 intraday:

Today’s session opened with a quick sell swing that – like many other days before it – saw a bullish intervention short-squeeze the market higher.

It would appear that the natural course of the market (short-term) is toward the downside, retracing the strong bullish movement.

So far, the intraday chart above shows a jumbled mess of price overlap between the 2,100 (pivot) and 2,120 level

Look for additional downside price action – and bearish trades to trigger – on a movement down away from 2,110.

Otherwise, this market is amazingly short-squeeze intervention bullish above 2,114.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Sector Breadth – like price – is mixed across the board.

All sectors trade near the 50% or halfway Breadth level, though Staples is the slight winner today.

Caution is the goal when a bull/bear signal (sector strength) isn’t abundantly clear.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Monster Beverage (MNST), Ross Stores (ROST), DigitalGlobe (DGI), and Coca-Cola (KO)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Ingram (IM), CST Brands, Kroger (KR), and GoPro (GPRO)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

26
Feb

Feb 26 Market Can Actually Fall Update and Stock Scan

Can you believe the market can actually fall?  I didn’t either!

Nevertheless, today’s session is showing price weakness but buyers – so far – have again held up the market from falling sharply.

We’ll be watching for the remainder of today’s session if they’ll be successful, and thus adapting our trades.

Here’s the Structure and Planning Levels on the S&P 500 intraday:

Today’s session opened with a quick sell swing that – like many other days before it – saw a bullish intervention short-squeeze the market higher.

It would appear that the natural course of the market (short-term) is toward the downside, retracing the strong bullish movement.

Look for additional downside price action – and bearish trades to trigger – on a movement down under 2,105.

Otherwise, this market is amazingly short-squeeze intervention bullish above 2,115 (be prepared for unexpected outcomes).

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Sector Breadth – like price – is mixed and a bit contradictory this afternoon.

The strongest sectors are under the 50% Breadth Line – which is bearish – yet the weakest sectors are Energy and Utilities.

The cluster of relative strength appears both in the offensive Technology/Materials group along with the defensive Staples/Health Care sectors.

Caution is the goal when a bull/bear signal (sector strength) isn’t abundantly clear.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Avago (AVGO), Carter’s (CRI), Western Refining (WNR), and Akorn (AKRX)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Taser (TASR), PVH, Nationstar (NSM), and Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

25
Feb

FT: Cleartrade sees brighter future

Cleartrade Exchange’s 2013 was disappointing, its deal with INTL FCStone collapsing, but chief executive Richard Baker is happier now after Deutsche Börse’s European Energy Exchange took a 52 per cent stake in Cleartrade, as he tells Philip Stafford.

FT Trading Room

25
Feb

John Carter Webinar Tonight! How to Generate Consistent Trading Results

Feb 24, 2015: 1:44 PM CST

I wanted to invite you to a free educational webinar from long-time trader (and clear educator) John Carter.

Tonight at 8:00pm EST, John will discuss insights on how to “generate consistent trading results” in the new markets of today’s environment.

I’m a long-time colleague and affiliate of John’s work and support his efforts to educate the trading community.

He also released a brief, straight-to-the point video which you can view ahead of tonight’s webinar.

Entitled “Why I Trade Options for Consistent Account Growth,” John breaks down the following chart in far simpler terms:

If you’ve attended any of John’s prior webinars, you know he presents with a practical, common-sense approach.

In addition, he has a way of explaining trading strategies and tactics in a simple, folksy style with examples and personal experiences.

John’s work can serve as an introduction to new traders, or a source of new ideas for experienced traders.

I hope to see you there!

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

23
Feb

Buying Apple AAPL on Breakouts to New Highs

Apple (AAPL) shares broke strongly to new all-time highs today, leaving some traders thrilled and others frustrated for missing out.

While most traders avoid buying breakouts, others see them as great opportunities to join a strong trend.

Let’s take a quick look at the current breakout as well as how shares have performed at prior breakouts.

The Daily Chart above shows two prior breakouts – October 2014 and now February 2015 – and the resulting straight-up movement that accompanied the breakout.

Keep in mind that price trends continue first from buyers buying (bulls) but also from sellers (bears) buying, but for a very different reason.

Buyers enter trades to profit from expected upside movement, but short-sellers must buy-back positions at a loss when their stop-losses are triggered.

Because many traders logically place stops above resistance levels, stop-losses… which are really just “buy” orders… can be triggered rapidly when price breaks resistance and triggers the stops.

This is the type of logic that fuels powerful trends and short-term breakout trading opportunities.

Price recently triggered the latest short-term resistance breakout above $ 130 per share.

We’ll pull the perspective back for a clearer look at price and prior breakout events:

Apple (AAPL) is an example of our concept of “Strong Stocks Getting Stronger.”

Not only has the trend been bullish (except for late 2012) but price has continued with a series of higher highs and lows.

The safest way to enter positions into a strongly trending stock is to buy shares on pullbacks or retracements.

“Flag” or retracement trades offer clear spots of entry and good places to locate a stop-loss in the event price fails to bounce higher, and instead breaks a support level (to trigger the stop-loss).

However, Breakout Trades trigger not when price “pulls back” but when it breaks out, either to new all-time highs or above a hand-drawn sideways resistance trendline.

We can see seven events where Apple shares broke short-term horizontal trendlines as it continued its uptrend.

Stops are often placed under the breakout trendline and the goal is to hold the position as long as possible, exiting when price breaks under a rising trendline or a stop that has been trailed under a rising moving average.

The plan is to enter a powerful impulse and profit from the short-term supply/demand (seller/buyer) imbalance.

Always monitor price closely and don’t be afraid to enter strong trends on breakouts – and never short a strong stock that is breaking out (that’s a great way to lose money quickly).

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

22
Feb

John Carter on Simple Strategies for Consistent Account Growth

Feb 21, 2015: 2:30 AM CST

Have you seen John Carter’s newest educational video?

Entitled “Why I Trade Options for Consistent Account Growth,” John breaks down the following chart in far simpler terms:

Both images link to the “more information” and free video page, and here’s the larger image:

I admit – I was particularly interested in “not going bug-eyed” looking for stocks!

Leave it to John to add humor to an otherwise intimidating topic.

He’s specially discussing the concept of Time Decay and how this can benefit you no matter what your experience or familiarity to trading options.

Do watch the whole video to learn more from my long-time colleague and affiliate John Carter.

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

20
Feb

Feb 19 Weak High Market Update and Daily Stock Scan

Surprisingly, the weak new price highs continued with another stab at the upper level again today, though bears were there to halt the market into resistance again.

The negative divergences still flash a big caution sign as price initially moves down away from this target.

We’ll update our key levels, highlight the divergence, and of course note trending stocks today:

After the breakout above 2,060’s rectangle resistance target, a powerful short-squeeze logically took the market to new highs into 2,100.

Today’s session saw potentially one more last-gasp rally at the new highs ahead of a reversal, but until we see price under 2,090 we’ll simply have to be cautious bulls and morph into aggressive bulls on a clean breakout higher above 2,105 or higher.

Right now, focus on the 2,095 to 2,105 simple range reference pivot points for planning trades.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Unlike yesterday’s Bearish Sector Breadth, today’s session flashes a big bullish signal.

The strongest performance appears in the Offensive/Bullish Sectors like Discretionary and Technology while the weakest sectors today are the defensive names of Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.

If anything, this should give us pause and prepare plans to play a possible bullish breakout higher if it occurs.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Priceline (PCLN), Expedia (EXPE), Trinity (TRN), TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Lasalle (LHO), Host Hotels (HST), Wal-Mart (WMT), and ProLogis (PLD)

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

18
Feb

Feb 18 Reversal Market Update and Trending Stock Scan

Over the last couple of sessions, as I highlighted to members last night, stocks continued their short-squeeze directed creep higher, fully achieving the simple 2,100 Round Number target.

The negative divergences flash a big caution sign as price initially moves down away from this target.

We’ll update our key levels, highlight the divergence, and of course note trending stocks today:

Let’s start with an update from the prior update on the current range and breakout targeting for the S&P 500.

It took about a month to occur, but price FINALLY managed to break above the upper resistance line near 2,070.

This instantly triggered a short-squeeze (short-sellers taking their stop-losses) at the same time buyers (bulls) added to existing positions or put on new bullish breakout positions.

With 2,100 achieved, we’re seeing the logical and expected movement (retracement) down away from the target.

Notice the lengthy negative Breadth Divergences into this target.

However, our alternate thesis still calls for bullish breakout plays if buyers trigger ANOTHER short-squeeze.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Sector Breadth – like the negative divergence shown above – also suggests a bearish play down from 2,100.

That’s because our weakest sectors are the bullish/offensive names like Financials, Energy, etc.

The strongest sector is the defensive Utilities followed by Staples (and Industrials).

This isn’t a picture of gleaming bullish market strength – quite the opposite.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Cinemark (CNK), Terex (TEX), Brinker (EAT), and HomeAway (AWAY)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

First American Financial (FAF), AutoNation (AN), Ann Inc (ANN), and Exxon-Mobil (XOM)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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