The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300. It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here. My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade. Here are the final results:
1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips
The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I’m leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.
POSTED JULY 11, 2016
The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I’ll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:
Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690
POSTED JULY 7, 2016
This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982). Here is the original trade setup here.
POSTED July 6, 2016
The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week. I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair. Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding. You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner. This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion. I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.
According to FXCM’s sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general. So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD. Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed. I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD. Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD. As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher. So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD. So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now. I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade. I don’t want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor. Here’s the setup:
Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.