3
Feb

Sell Swing Market Update and Stock Scan Feb 2

Stocks fell sharply from a key overhead resistance target – with divergences – to produce today’s Trend Day Down.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

For members last night and on the TradeStation Morning Market Briefing, I highlighted the 1,945 level as the key pivot point (target) for price to play toward (successfully) and now “away from” (successfully).

The result so far has been a T3 Trend Day to the downside as price impulsively moved lower toward our 1,900 target.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Our Breadth Chart shows strong “Risk-Off” or defensive Money Flow in today’s sell session.

Utilities – a defensive group – is the strongest sector while all other sectors are near zero breadth.

Here’s a top-level or full-perspective view of today’s S&P 500 stock performance (courtesy of FinViz.com).

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Michael Kors (KORS), Dow Chemical (DOW), Dupont (DD), and Mattel (MAT)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Harris Corp (HRS), Microsoft (MSFT), ADT Corp (ADT), and Goldman Sachs (GS)

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

26
Dec

The Santa Claus Rally Finally Appears!

It’s about time! The famous “Santa Claus Rally” occurred this holiday week.

Many traders were asking “when will the rally occur?” and we have our answer mid-week.

Let’s chart the Santa Claus Rally of 2015 and what factors set it up ahead of time.

Here’s the Daily S&P 500:

Here’s some background of what I wrote this week to Members (we’d love to have you as a member):

Monday:  “We’re going to play a long/bullish bounce aggressively “up away from” the 2,000 pivot. The target will be 2,045 or 2,050 on the bounce.”

Tuesday:  “We’re likely playing into the “Santa Claus” Rally, but beyond that, price was expected to trade higher “up away from” the 2,000 pivot support with positive divergences. That’s precisely what happened and we’re going to continue trading any long/bullish upside price action into Wednesday and beyond.”

We’re seeing the outcome so far of the successful planning/analysis for price moving “up away from” the 2,000 pivot during the shortened holiday week.

The factors that preceded the rally included…

  • A Key Support Pivot (2,000)
  • Positive Momentum and Internal (Breadth and TICK) Divergences (suggesting a reversal)
  • The “Santa Claus” or bullish historical tendency for the Christmas holiday trading week
  • The Larger Uptrend in the Market

Ultimately that’s precisely what occurred.

Here’s what we have of the rally so far as seen on the 30-min Intraday @ES Futures Chart:

We can see the Positive Momentum and Breadth Divergences occurring into the 2,000 Key Pivot Support.

That’s enough to make us bullish and expect a rally swing “up away from” this pivot.

However, the “Santa Claus” bullish historical tendency further put the odds in our favor.

It’s not always clear what price “should” do AND we get the expected follow-through.

When that happens, be sure to take advantage of it with aggressive trading strategies, particularly intraday.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

24
Dec

Stellar Bullish Trend Day Update and Surging Stock Scan Dec 23

Santa Claus continues to deliver the bullish goods to the market today!

First, take a look at this morning’s update “The Santa Claus Rally has Arrived!” for more details.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

In-depth analysis is always provided to members of the Premium Daily Reports – I hope you’ll join and benefit.

As I highlighted with quotes from last night’s report, we were expecting a continuation of the rally – and that’s exactly what we got.

“We’re going to play a long/bullish bounce aggressively “up away from” the 2,000 pivot. The target will be 2,045 or 2,050 on the bounce.”

We’ve exceeded our initial (first) target and now trade through the 2,060 pivot – above resistance.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

All sectors are understandably strongly bullish during the big Trend Day.

Energy (oil) and Utilities reveal 100% of stocks positive during today’s surging session.

Our goal is always to identify and go WITH the money flow – never against it.

Here’s a top-level or full-perspective view of today’s S&P 500 stock performance (courtesy of FinViz.com).

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Celgene (CELG), Canadian Natural (CNQ), and Westlake Chem (WLK)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Nike (NKE), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Extrage Space (EXR), and CME Group

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

23
Dec

Netflix NFLX Struggles to Hold Key Support

Will Netflix (NFLX) hold critical support and bounce higher to continue the uptrend?

Or perhaps will sellers win the battle, collapsing price to a new lower support target?

Let’s plot the price course and note the trades to take from here in NFLX:

First, price remains (so far) in an uptrend and challenges a key support “Make or Break” pivot.

The $ 115.00 per share level is the confluence of the lower Bollinger Band, 50 day EMA, and 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

Either this level holds, resulting in a bullish rally “up away from” $ 115, or it doesn’t, collapsing price toward $ 100.

Your trade – if you’re willing to play the next immediate swing – would be the departure away from $ 115 here.

Note the lower rising support trendline and 200 day SMA near $ 100 – the downside target.

Otherwise a bullish bounce play targets $ 120 then the prior high (uptrend continuation) into $ 130 per share.

Here’s a clearer perspective of the weekly chart and what may yet be in store:

A quick glance at the Weekly Chart reminds us that price is in an ongoing uptrend.

However, we’re currently in a “counter-trend retracement” swing down away from the upper Bollinger Band.

Price is likely – according to the Weekly Chart – to trade down toward the rising 20 week EMA into $ 110.00.

If so, it suggests the Daily Chart Support Pivot ($ 115) will fail, opening the door to a sell swing $ 5.00 lower.

Note how the rising 20 week EMA has been a key target during the uptrend.

Focus your attention – and build trading strategies – right now off the $ 115 pivot.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

16
Dec

Downtrending Apple AAPL Triggers another Sell Signal

What’s going on with Apple (AAPL)?

This week shares broke a key trendline support level, breaking out of a triangle pattern and giving us yet another sell-short (or sell) signal in an ongoing and confirmed new downtrend.

Let’s take a look at what’s going on and what the short-term future may be for this once high-flying name:

First, trends are defined by price, and downtrends are marked by lower lows and lower highs.

Apple is downtrending on the daily chart and just broke under a key trendline support level at $ 115.00.

Note the highlighted Triangle Price Pattern at this level along with the rising (lower) trendline.

Earlier, price shattered this key pivot point and volume surged as price broke lower.

This was a validation of the breakout, triggering a short-sell (or liquidate) signal that resulted in price falling to where we are now under $ 110.00 ($ 109 at the moment).

Here’s the weekly perspective for a broader view of what’s going on:

Apple (AAPL) peaked in a distribution pattern (divergences) above $ 130.00 per share.

From that multi-month peak, price collapsed mid-2015 toward $ 100.00 per share.

Price is possibly triggering another impulse sell signal or breakdown from key trendline support.

If so, look for price to travel lower toward $ 105, or even the $ 100 level again.

Apple in this pattern would not be a safe buy until (and unless) it gets back above the $ 110 and $ 115 levels.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

15
Dec

S&P in Wave C Down


Looks like wave C is finally getting underway and has plenty of room to the downside.  Many of my momentum indicators on the 4hr and Daily charts are firmly down.  However, on a short term basis, 30min charts, the market is oversold.  The structure of the decline suggests further levels will be achieved before any meaningful bounce occurs so my bias remains bearish.

I drew some fibonnacci retracement levels for the move up from ((x)) to B to get an idea of where the market may pause and bounce.  I’m looking for around the 78% level at 1914 to conclude wave ((iii)), but 3rd waves can extend well beyond what’s expected so by no means am I trying to get long there.  It’s just an area I’ll look to take some profits and perhaps lighten up some risk.

The trend remains firmly down as long 2090 is not broken, but preferably I’d like to see 2055 remain intact to keep the series of lower highs in place.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: Elliott Wave Principle and Automated Strategies (An Elliott Wave Blog)

15
Dec

Triangle Breakout with Targets for JetBlue Airways JBLU

Uptrending Stock JetBlue (JBLU) broke under a key support level today, triggering an opportunity for traders.

What’s the trading opportunity and target with the breakdown?

Let’s check it out!

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) continued a very strong trend through 2015, retracing twice into June and August.

September to December saw a sideways trading range (consolidation) that took the form of a Triangle.

The upper resistance and lower support trendlines developed toward $ 26.00 and $ 24.50 per share.

Today, we see a gap-down and trend day breakout lower under the $ 24.50 level on a sudden test of the first support target near $ 24.00 per share.

The play here – for aggressive traders – is to trade through the bearish “breakout” pathway toward $ 22.50 (the rising 200 day SMA) or even $ 24.00 (the price low from August).

Any bearish trade would be overruled or invalid if price suddenly bounces up off $ 24.00 and re-enters the triangle ($ 24.75).

Here’s the Weekly Chart for more targets and perspective:

We see that the strong uptrend began with the 2013 breakout above the $ 8.00 per share level.

The rising 20 week EMA (green) served as a target for retracements to end and a good spot to enter swing trades into the rising support level that continued with the trend.

Now, we see our first potential threat – or breakdown – under this rising floor of support since late 2014.

An initial break of the rising 20 week EMA opens a sell (bearish) pathway toward the rising 50 EMA.

That target aligns with the lower weekly Bollinger Band near $ 21.50 per share (roughly $ 22.00).

Focus your attention – and trades – on the departure from $ 24.00 and act accordingly if you’re willing.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

10
Dec

Stellar Reversal Market Update and Stock Scan Dec 9

That was a BIG reversal!

Stocks initially traded higher this morning, only to reverse powerfully lower mid-day.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

In-depth analysis is always provided to members of the Premium Daily Reports – I hope you’ll join and benefit.

We’re still in the context of a Sideways Trading Range on the higher timeframe.

See this morning’s post about the S&P 500 Key Pivot Levels for more information.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

In the context of strong selling pressure, only the Basic Materials sector is positive (above 50%) today.

Next is Utilities and Energy while all other sectors are clearly underwater (under 50%).

It suggests bearish money flow and a defensive posture today.

Here’s a top-level or full-perspective view of today’s S&P 500 stock performance (courtesy of FinViz.com).

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Dupont (DD), Dow Chemical (DOW), WYNN Resorts, and Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Electronic Arts (EA), Lululemon (LULU), NetApp (NTAP), and Whirlpool (WHR)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

9
Dec

FT: Shortening Europe’s settlement times

Many over-the-counter equity trades in Europe are now being settled on the same day. Laura Craft, head of business development for securities at Traiana, tells Philip Stafford, FT Trading Room editor, how an extra 30 minutes makes all the difference.

FT Trading Room

8
Dec

Bull Trap Reversal Market Update and Stock Scan Dec 2

Stocks triggered a Bull Trap Reversal this morning as internals diverged lower from price.

The result was an intraday collapse away from the key 2,100 level.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

In-depth analysis is always provided to members of the Premium Daily Reports – I hope you’ll join and benefit.

Yesterday’s surprisingly strong rally gave way to an equally strong bearish reversal today.

Note the initial movement up above the 2,100 target and the negative divergences earlier this morning.

The result was a reversal and then collapse of the market – we’re currently seeing the 20 point collapse now.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

The snap-shot of Sector Strength shows massive weakness as the S&P 500 tests session lows.

The strongest sector – as if 25% of stocks positive is strong – is the defensive Staples group.

All others are showing weakness and near zero stocks positive in each sector, as we’ll soon see.

Here’s a top-level or full-perspective view of today’s S&P 500 stock performance (courtesy of FinViz.com).

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Yahoo! YHOO, Wayfair (W), and First Solar (FSLR)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Kansas City (KSU), Sony Corp (SNE), CH Robinson (CHRW), and Viacom (VIAB)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

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