24
Jul

Elliott Wave Forex Signals – Closed Remaining GBPNZD Position at 165 pip Profit

GBPNZD chart



The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300.  It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here.  My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade.  Here are the final results:

1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit 
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips 

GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I’m leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I’ll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

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POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM’s sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don’t want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here’s the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

23
Jul

Down Drips Crude Oil to New Swing Lows July 22

Jul 22, 2016: 1:00 PM CST

In a somewhat surprising outcome, Crude Oil dips to a new swing low at the same time the US Stock Market rallies back toward all-time highs.

This disconnect is interesting as we turn our attention to the bend in the intermarket relationship.

Generally Crude Oil and Stocks exhibit a positive correlation (they both move in the same direction).

However a disconnect took hold from June into July as Crude Oil traded steadily lower while stocks advanced amazingly higher to all-time highs.

Despite positive momentum divergences on the hourly chart, Crude Oil continued its short-term downtrend toward – and now under – the $ 45.00 per barrel price target.

The commodity has declined from its recent peak above $ 52.00 per barrel to the current $ 44.00 level.

What looked like a possible bullish reversal up has now turned into a sharp sell-swing and breakdown lower.

Focus your attention on the $ 45.00 per barrel target and look to play the swing AWAY FROM this key pivot.

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23
Jul

Stock Market Analysis – More Sell Signals Confirmed

VIX Chart



The VIX has not also confirmed a sell signal on the 130min chart, signaling that the upcoming decline in the S&P will be much larger than 20 points. Now I am expecting a 35-40 point minimum decline from where the top is registered.  However, that is only a minimum decline level, it’s just a starting point.  It has only printed three waves in on this rally so a strong decline to confirm that it was only a three wave rally could be a sign that something much bigger is happening to the downside.

Nasdaq 100 Chart

The Nasdaq 100 is starting to get in on the fun too as it has now confirmed a bearish signal.  The S&P has yet to confirm a bearish signal on the index itself, however the VIX has confirmed bearish stock market moves on both the 30min and 130min charts.  So a stock market decline is near.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

22
Jul

Intermarket Divergence Signals Selloff Tuesday

S&P, TF and EMD Charts



Just a quick note to add to my bearish signals in place.  The market is taking longer than usual to decline after confirming a signal, but at today’s close there was a noticeable intermarket divergence between the S&P, Russel and S&P MidCap futures indexes as you can see from the charts above.  The S&P made a new high while the TF and EMD failed to even come close to doing so and have declined.  Breaking below the previous swing low if the Globex session would help confirm a top is in and that the market is poised for a selloff Tuesday.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

6
Jul

FT: City of London post-Brexit

The FT’s Philip Stafford and Mark Hemsley, chief executive of Bats Europe, discuss the future of the City of London’s trading operations after the vote to leave in the UK’s EU referendum

FT Trading Room

15
Mar

Elliott Wave Option/Stock Signal – UNG Long is Active

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Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

13
Mar

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Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

28
Feb

Bears Need a Top Soon, Good Place to Occur Now


The bullish triangle I called out in the last post on the 5min chart sure played out quite well, but much better, further and longer than expected.

Yesterday’s rally was quite fierce and it made almost a straight line up.  Bear market rallies tend to be quite sharp, but this one is also very deep and can cause some problems to the bearish count if it gets above 1996.25, which is the wave ((i)) low.  The market closed right at wave ((iii)) 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1951.

So, with the obvious follow-through to yesterday’s sharp rally today complete, and a nice retracement level hit just shy of the wave ((i)) invalidation level, the bears could see a good opportunity to hit the market hard again to the downside either Friday or Monday.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: Elliott Wave Principle and Automated Strategies (An Elliott Wave Blog)

25
Feb

S&P Possibly in Short Term Bullish Triangle


The ES appears to be forming a short term bullish triangle that should result in a narrowing range of price activity probably the rest of the day before shooting higher in a terminal thrust towards the 1945 level.  Thrusts are terminal moves, so once complete, it should immediately retrace to at least the 1939 area.  To support the triangle outlook, you can also see volume waning as the triangle progresses.  My best guess is that overnight, or early in the morning for the US session, a news event will trigger the triangle’s wave E and then a sharp move upward for the thrust will occur.  There is not much heavy news to cause this action, but that doesn’t mean it won’t occur, as many unforeseen events end up moving the markets sharply anyway.

For the longer term, I am still bearish as you can see from my previous post.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: Elliott Wave Principle and Automated Strategies (An Elliott Wave Blog)

24
Feb

FT: LSE-Deutsche Börse deal in 90 seconds

FT Trading Room editor Philip Stafford explains in 90 seconds the rationale behind German stock exchange Deutsche Börse’s proposal to take over its UK counterpart, the London Stock Exchange Group, after the failure of previous merger discussions.

FT Trading Room

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