22
Aug

Charting Apple AAPL Through the 100 Dollar High

Last week I posted about “Open Air” and magnet levels in Apple – let’s update the chart now to focus our attention on the $ 100 per share level (now achieved) which has served as a floor of support.

Here’s the Daily Chart with the progression to the new highs:

First, start with a little background on the “Apple Through Value Areas/Magnet Levels” post from last week.

It targeted a distant “Magnet Area” into $ 100 as long as price remained trading above the $ 95.00 Magnet Level.

Indeed, this outcome occurred a bit faster than expected (price simply moved through an “Open Air Pocket”) and not only have shares achieved the $ 100 simple target level, but they just exceeded them strongly today.

Despite two doji reversal candles into the upper Bollinger Band this week, buyers triggered a short-squeeze and continued the multi-day rally up from $ 94.00 through $ 100.

While there were progressive negative momentum and volume divergences, buyers stepped up with higher activity during the recent August rally (green highlight).

We can see a closer perspective on the intraday chart:

Shares ended a short-term downtrend into the $ 94.00 level and thus began a powerful, “creeper” trend impulse that forced bears (short-sellers) to cover at the same time bulls (buyers) bought into the uptrend or added to current positions.

Creeper trends tend to be confusing because they don’t allow for clean entries (such as pullbacks or ‘flags’).

At this point, our simple focal point will be the $ 100 per share “floor of support” that – if broken – opens a sell-off phase toward lower levels such as the $ 98.00 gap and $ 97.00 level (or lower should the broader market reverse).

But until a reversal under $ 100 occurs in real-time, shares may be poised to continue “creeping” higher as bears buy-back to cover and bulls rush in aggressively to join this strong stock in a potential breakout impulse.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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20
Aug

Hidden Trading Opportunities from August 20 Consecutive Close Scan

Sometimes the simplest scans can provide stock candidates to trade that we otherwise may never have spotted.

Here’s the results of today’s “Most Closes in the Same Direction (up)” scan from TradeStation:

Lesser-known stock Illinous Tool Works (ITW) has closed 11 days higher – that’s worth a closer look:

We can see shares trading back up into the resistance target of the prior high from June ($ 90 level).

Notice the secret straight-up rally from the $ 81.00 level into the current target.

Very aggressive traders may view this as a “short an over-extended stock into resistance” opportunity and that would be the logical thing to do.

However, a breakout beyond the $ 90.00 level triggers a bullish breakout potential opportunity which could extend this 11 day streak.

Of course, a reversal (or retracement) down against the prior high is far more likely than an extension of the 11-day streak but plan and trade accordingly.

Popular stock Amazon.com (AMZN) also tops the list of consecutive up-closes today:

While you’re likely more familiar with Amazon (AMZN) than Illinois Tool Works (ITW), you may have missed the fact that Amazon shares have traded nine days in a row straight up off the $ 310 support pivot (from a gap) into the current resistance cluster near $ 340.

This similarly opens a “Will it Breakout” or “Will it Retrace” unbiased game-planning scenario for your next trade.

A logical movement down becomes an aggressive short-sale opportunity (stop above $ 340) while an alternate breakout set-up (short-squeeze) may trigger above the $ 340 level.

These are just two candidates that offer further study and trade planning from our simple stock scan today.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

19
Aug

August 18 Breadth and Stock Scan Market Update

Our mid-day update takes place on yet another bullish trend day higher as price breaks through resistance toward the prior highs, as I’ve been highlighting recently.

For our S&P 500 update, see this morning’s post “On and Up to New Highs for the S&P 500” along with the recent “Breakout from a Repeat Pattern” post.

In sum, the market is doing exactly what it should be doing in order to complete a “Repeat Pattern.”

To further put the odds in the Bullish Camp, let’s take a look at today’s strong Sector Breadth Chart:

Unlike Friday’s chart, we see strong Sector Bullishness across the board – underscored by the dismal performance of Utilities today (only 1 of 27 S&P 500 Utility stocks are positive right now).

Our other relative strength laggard is Energy while all other sectors – Bullish along with the defensive Staples – enjoy strong sector performance.

If you’re looking to play trend continuation trades, focus on the following names which could trend higher into the close:

Dollar General (DG), Family Dollar (FDO – both in merger news), Yum Brands (YUM), and Mosaic Co (MOS).

If you can’t resist fighting the tide of money into the market, focus on these potential bearish sale candidates:

Conoco Phillips (COP), Monster Beverage (MNST – retracing after a strong Friday), Loews (L), and Microchip (MCHP).

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

17
Aug

Uncovering a Hidden Value Area for Apple AAPL Shares

What are our Color Value Area Charts revealing about a key magnet price area to watch in Apple (AAPL)?

Let’s take a look, starting with the Daily Chart:

The TradeStation Indicator is the Trigger Charts Radar Indicator, designed to show “Market Profile” concepts in a colorful, visual format.

For simplicity, focus your attention only on the yellow lines (and the tight red clusters near the yellow lines) which represent “Time at Price,” or significant levels where both price has traded at “high volume” nodes (levels).

Keeping it simple, we can look back to prior yellow lines and compare them to current yellow lines on the chart.

We see a “hidden” triple node (three yellow lines) near the $ 95.00 per share level which should be our current focal point.

Above that we see a node into $ 100 per share which appears to be a likely target towards which price is being pulled.

Yes, there’s more you can learn from the chart above, but let’s just focus on the Magnet Node into $ 95.00 and the upper line from October 2012 into $ 100 per share.

We can zoom-in for intraday or swing traders to discover more short-term nodes (yellow lines) for planning trades:

The 30-min chart – which is a more traditional “Market Profile” style representation – highlights three short-term value areas from July through August.

First, we have the lower cluster (as I showed on the Daily Chart) into the $ 95.00 to $ 95.00 per share level (key magnet).

Next, we have the current cluster where price is trading currently into $ 97.50 per share.

Finally, we have two smaller clusters above price near $ 98.75 per share.

In general, price tends to gravitate (trade) toward a target cluster through “Open Air” which are represented as Blue Zones, or levels that aren’t Value Areas.

Price can move quickly through Blue Zones toward Yellow (or tight red) zones.

Whatever strategies you’re using to trade Apple (AAPL) shares, keep these value area clusters in mind as targets and inflection levels (like magnets).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

16
Aug

Unique Educational Fundraiser All Day Webinar Event for Toni Hansen Saturday

Aug 15, 2014: 2:37 PM CST

I’m both pleased and humbled to announce an all-day event of 19 educational webinars from top speakers discussing their favorite trade set-ups as a unique fundraiser to assist one of our own colleagues who has been very influential in the trading community.

Please join us and learn favorite set-ups from top trading educators while at the same time assisting the family of Toni Hansen as she journeys on her road to recovery from a very serious medical condition.

Full details are available through the Information and Registration Page at Tasty Trade.com:

This is not an affiliate event and donations will go to Toni and her family.

I am truly honored to be included in the Speaker Line-up and strongly encourage you to attend all of the information-packed sessions that will take place all day this Saturday.

On a personal note, Toni was one of the first educators I met when I began attending the Traders Expos in 2005 and quickly became a colleague and close friend as I transitioned to a speaker at the Traders Expo.

I sought her advice for the first time I presented at the Expo in 2009 and she was very kind to share her wisdom.

I have always respected her simple style of explaining the complexities of trading strategies and have seen her reputation grow in the trading community.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to her and her family during her recovery period and we are eager to assist in any way possible to make the difficult journey to recovery a little bit easier.

My thanks also go out to Jeanette Sims and everyone who helped create this event and the fellow colleagues who will be speaking this Saturday.

Please join us for a full day of education and support for one of the most generous leaders in the field of trader education.

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

14
Aug

SP500 Decided to Break On Through to the Other Side

Aug 14, 2014: 11:22 AM CST

Not to be spooked by a little retracement in the market, the buyers (bulls) decided to break price higher to the “other side” of the 20/50 EMA resistance.

Let’s update our chart and note the “Open Air” as price completes another repeat pattern:

First, take a moment to study my prior update from August 11 entitled “Planning a S&P 500 Breakout from a Repeat Pattern.”

I highlighted two similar retracements under the rising 50 day EMA (February and April) and then showed what happened next when price traded up into the resistance – and then beyond it.

It’s very possible we’re seeing the same thing happen in August.

In other words, price is breaking through the 20/50 EMA reference level (1,945) and could complete a run toward the prior high just shy of 2,000.

If so, the movement would be fueled by bears (short-sellers) buying-back to cover stop-losses as buyers continue to flood money into the market (breakout buy orders above 1,950 and beyond).

We’ll monitor the “Open Air” closely and be on guard for any failure outcome (a reversal back under 1,945).

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

11
Aug

Sector Rotation Update and Charts for August 2014

What are Sector Rotation Charts hinting about the hidden strength (or weakness) of the broader market?

Let’s take a look at our new Sector Rotation Model charts:

A quick view of a one-year chart glance at the nine major AMEX Sector SPDRs shows strong uptrends in all sectors.

This is an ongoing bullish sign that has developed within the context of a similar non-stop rise in the broader indexes such as the S&P 500 from mid-2013 to present.

Despite the strength, we see sharp recent pullbacks (sell-offs) also in all sectors again within the context of a broader market sharp pullback.

Interestingly, the sector that pulled back the most was the Utilities (XLU) sector.

Sharp pullbacks also occurred in the Defensive Staples along with the Offensive Industrials, Financials, and Energy sectors.

Health Care, Materials, and Technology showed relative strength by staying closer to the uptrending highs.

We can get more specific by viewing the  Year-to-Date (YTD) performance of these sectors:

We typically divide the Sector Rotation Grid into Offensive (bullish/healthy) sectors such as Financials/Technology and the Defensive Sectors such as Staples/Utilities.

Year-to-Date, our highest three performing sectors cut the traditional gridlines as Defensive Health Care rose over 10%; Energy rose 9%; and Technology rallied almost 9%.

The other two top names include Defensive Utilities (not necessarily a bullish sign) and offensive Materials.

Our worst performing sectors so far in 2014 include Offensive Cyclicles (Consumer Discretionary) and Industrials (both down about 1% on the year).

Balance your comparisons with the S&P 500 index which is up about 4% year to date.

The message would be clearer if sector strength was widely concentrated within the green ‘offensive’ sectors or the red ‘defensive’ sectors, but you can see the mixed picture in the graph above.

This is a mixed picture and calls for additional analysis into specific sectors – along with leading companies in these sectors.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

3
Aug

Simpler Stocks Webinar on Trading ETFS for Profit and Protection

Aug 1, 2014: 7:29 PM CST

John Carter is launching a new, specific venture for you entitled “Simpler Stocks” as a sister site to his option-specific “Simpler Stocks” site and he’s conducting a new webinar entitled “Trading ETFs for Protection, Profit, and Peace of Mind” – or simply titled “The Three P’s” Presentation!

The “Protection, Profit, and Peace of Mind” webinar will be live August 19th at 8:00pm EST:

The image above will link you directly to the registration page where you’ll just need to provide your first name and email to register for the new training.

You’ll need to register for this webinar even if you’ve attended similar webinars with John Carter in the past or through Simpler Options educational content.

When I first started trading, I traded individual stocks and then transitioned into sector then broader market ETFs.

I’m excited to see what John will be offering the trading community as he simplifies his strategies for using ETFs for income and profit goals.

I’m a long-time student and now colleague (and affiliate) of John Carter’s work and am thrilled to support him in this new endeavor.

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

30
Jul

FT: Euronext carves its own path

Euronext is independent again. In June, the move was confirmed when it listed on the main French, Dutch and Belgium markets. FT’s Peggy Hollinger asks chief executive Dominique Cerutti about his ambitious plans for the stock exchange.

FT Trading Room

25
Jul

SP500 Gasping at New Highs with Cautious Divergences

We’re seeing a familiar Hollywood script play out with price chugging to new highs as internals, volume, and momentum run the other way.

While this isn’t a panic signal, let’s at least highlight the extended divergences and “fumes” that continue to accompany a market creeping its way higher.

We’re seeing the S&P 500 Index stair-step its way through all-time highs (top chart) as Breadth ($ ADD) and TICK – key Market Internals that reveal what’s going on behind the price – stairstep their way down.

It’s a classic “non-confirmation” or negative divergence between price and Market Internals (and the same is true with volume and momentum oscillators).

Once again, no this does not scream “run and hide and sell everything short” but it should give bulls/buyers a pause before leveraging their account long as they buy the news that stocks are at all-time highs.

We can zoom the perspective closer by seeing the 5-min intraday chart:

From July 22nd to present, price has crept its way from 1,975 to the current 1,900 and the index may throw one “last gasp” straight up into 2,000 to defy these divergences and continue the trend of money flow into the stock market.

Remember, price that breaks higher when logic and charts suggest otherwise is often fueled by short-sellers (bears) buying-back to cover losing positions when the market does the opposite of what they think it will.

Aggressive traders can position into unexpected breakouts and profit from the losses of those on the wrong side of price action (the same is true in reverse for a market that trades lower despite positive divergences).

For now, do note the divergences, do add some caution into your bullish trading, and don’t be surprised to see a pullback lower back toward 1,975 or lower should price break under the rising trendline near 1,987 currently.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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