25
Nov

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Market Analysis



The stock market has been quite a mess the past year or so with with choppy sideways-to-up price action that it has had me on the sidelines for the most part.  I have been trying to trade individual stocks through options trades, and focusing on forex as a result.  The one thing notable that has occurred recently is the price action surrounding the US presidential election.  On election day, the overnight session so a huge drop in the markets when Donald Trump appeared to be the victor.  But when the US traders woke up the next day, they quickly bought up the oversold market and carried it to new highs from the previous trading day.  This was also done on huge volume of course.  So, market players are telling us that although there was initial fear of a Trump victory based on potential instability in the US, once the panic subsided market players saw the Trump win good for the economy and stock market.  Whether that is true and will play out, we don’t know obviously.  But the market is pricing in positive economics and earnings for at least 6 months out.

So we have a huge reversal higher on a giant volume spike from back earlier this month.  The low is 2028.50 for that day.  To me, that is a key level for the bulls.  For the long term, as long as price remains above this level, the market is overall bullish 6 months out from the day you’re in.  There will be pullbacks along the way, but long term investors would be wise to go long the markets long as that level remains intact.

There are several signs of a short term pullback in stocks across the board, as well in Japanese yen pairs in forex, so I think if buyers are patient they can wait for that pullback to get long some stocks that may be to pricey right now.  I am personally getting short the USDJPY and GBPJPY in forex.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

24
Nov

The Emini Holiday Creep Continues Nov 23

Nov 23, 2016: 12:45 PM CST

Breakout? Pullback? Extended Uptrend getting more extended? Divergent Reversal? Let’s plan!

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

We have a new Fibonacci Grid for the moment that will remain active on an eventual retracement from the high.

We’ll keep extending it higher – from the earlier low – until we do get that deeper-than-one-hour pullback.

The Market generally has an upward creep – which we’re seeing – during the Thanksgiving Holiday.

We’ll continue to balance the logical odds for a pullback against this “Holiday Creep” and trade accordingly.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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22
Nov

US Steel X Surges through Breakout Highs Nov 22

Nov 22, 2016: 2:49 PM CST

Expectations for future “stimulus” and transportation/spending projects from the new Republican administration sent raw materials stocks – and futures contracts – surging after the US Election.

Here’s the quick update – after a stellar breakout – for US Steel (X) by request:

On the Daily Chart above we see a positive momentum divergence in October – ahead of the election – and a strong bullish surge of volume.

This was perhaps a precursor or early hint of possible bullish activity yet to come.

Nevertheless, shares broke resistance above $ 20 in the two days BEFORE the election results which again set a bullish potential in motion.

The big gap occurred post-election on November 9th and buyers dominated the market from there.

Here’s the picture as seen best on the Weekly Chart with additional bullish pressure:

Again, we see a lengthy positive momentum divergence and eventual TREND REVERSAL in early 2016.

From there, a strong momentum burst and huge – 150 million/week – volume surge set in motion the birth of a new uptrend for US Steel.

Mid-2016 saw an initial peak into $ 27.50 and a logical structural pullback toward the weekly averages.

Again, price set up a bullish likely outcome heading into the election and continued it with huge volume, price action, and momentum after the election.

Continue following price action for US Steel (X) and related commodity/industrial metal stocks as we travel into December 2016 and beyond.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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21
Nov

Emini Plays Again at the Highs Nov 18

Nov 18, 2016: 1:00 PM CST

Will it – or won’t it – break through to new highs?  Or will we see a logical pullback?

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

We have a new Fibonacci Grid for the moment that will remain active IF price does retrace from the high.

Note the build-up of negative momentum and internal divergences which suggest a pullback (retracement) is more likely than an outright breakout.

However, we’re traders and will thus structure our short-term plans to trade the immediate departure from 2,190.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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20
Nov

S&P Futures Wave Count

S&P Futures



The stock market and forex spot have been quite signal free ans opporunity free for about a month.  But with the US presidential election heating hp, and traders back their desks after summer break, I’m expecting things to pickup.

The S&P appears to be in the early stages of a manor bull run, although only 3 waves up have printed so far, so the bull run is far from confirmed.  In the short term, look for (c) of ((2)) to pull price down to around the 2100 level. Price action around that level should give us a clue of what is next.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

20
Nov

Elliott Wave Option Signals – Short SYMC & Long SRCL

Short SYMC option spread



Symantec (SYMC) has been on a tear for a long time, but after Minor wave 3, we see some choppy and weak rising off the wave ((a)) low.  This is a topping structure and indicative of a ((b)) wave.  Once complete, a sharp wave ((c)) down should take place, pulling prices to the $ 22.60 – $ 24.00 range to complete Minor wave 4.  So I’m hitting it short with a put spread that will cover earnings postings early November:

Buy SYMC Nov 18  23/26 put spread at $ 1.19
__________________

Long SRCL


On flipside, Stericycle Inc (SRCL) appears to have completed an Intermediate A-B-C correction to the downside.  After a sharp gap lower, the stock has trickled down to new lows but not in a convincing fashion.  Downside momentum appears to have become exhausted and a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming.  A long signal triggered on my custom indicators so I’m hitting it long here with a call spread to target a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels of wave (C) and the entire A-B-C move at the $ 95 area.  Here is the trade:

Buy SRCL Nov 18  75/90 call spread at $ 6.24

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

23
Sep

Trading Through our Fibs Sept 23 Emini Grid Update

Sep 23, 2016: 1:55 PM CST

If you’re not using our Fibonacci Grids each morning, you’re missing out.

Be sure to bookmark our homepage and check back each morning for free updates to our grid and quick-planning for you day.

Today we’re seeing a fall down away from our 2,170 level toward the intraday pivot at 2,156 where a reversal is brewing.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

Here’s a reference guide of how to use and trade from these morning updates.

With the Fed NOT raising rates as expected, the market shot like a rocket straight up into our ‘Final Fib’ level.

From there, price traded around 2,169 and now broke lower, falling all the way to our 2,156 Fib Pivot.

We will focus our attention there for a possible end-of-day rally and plan for Monday.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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22
Sep

Trading Intraday Trend Reversals Webinar TODAY!

Sep 22, 2016: 1:41 AM CST

I’m excited to present today’s featured educational webinar:

Trading Intraday Trend Reversals:  Specific Tips & Tactics for You” at 4:30 EST / 3:30 CST.

In just over an hour, we’ll cover how to recognize an Intraday Trend Reversal in stocks, ETFs, and especially index futures before other traders catch on – giving YOU the advantage in your trades.

We’ll talk indicators, moving averages, volume, momentum, internals and other factors you can use for clues.

Attendees of this event with learn:

  • Corey’s “Kick-Off” concept
  • Specific indicators you can use
  • Which moving average combinations to use for better accuracy
  • Specific trade set-ups that can get you on the right side of a rapid market movement

Don’t get caught on the wrong side of a trend day! I’ll gladly answer your trend questions live using multiple real-world examples.

Join us!  It’s free, there’s no sales – just actionable education you can start using now.

Thanks to Trader Kingdom and Ninja Trader for making this possible to the trading community!

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

20
Sep

SP500 SPX Scraping the Underside of the 50 Day EMA

Sep 20, 2016: 10:23 AM CST

We follow the market on an intraday basis but it’s helpful to pull the perspective up to the Daily Chart for clues.

Right now we’re seeing a clear higher timeframe range develop as the market “scrapes” the underside of a key EMA.

In simplest terms, sellers are stepping in at the underside of the 50 day EMA near 2,150.

Focus on this level as a key pivot – bullish for a breakout above, bearish beneath.

However, buyers are stepping in to support the market at the 2,120 price pivot.

Continue following along with our morning market updates of the intraday Fibonacci Levels within this context.

We’ll have the Fed Decision (hike?  not hike?) Wednesday and any surprise could be the catalyst to break us out of these focal points.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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18
Sep

A Range at the Lows Emini Fibonacci Grid Update Sept 16

Sep 16, 2016: 10:42 AM CST

We’re seeing a range develop between our Fibonacci Levels at the recent lows.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

Here’s a reference guide of how to use and trade from these morning updates.

Be sure to reference the previous update for additional information for the larger Fibonacci Grid targets.

The 2,105/2,110 level is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the larger rally and so far, it’s holding as support.

A strong rally took us above the 2,139 pivot but price reversed between the 38.2% and 50% levels yesterday.

We were ready for a bearish swing “away from” the 2,139 level toward 2,128 and we’re back toward that pivot now.

Focus on – and trade – the departure away from 2,129 for the remainder of today’s session.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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