17
Dec

A Quick Grid of Overseas ETFs and Trends

With trends shifting and reversing across global markets, let’s step back and take a quick look at a simple chart grid of country ETFs and note signs of relative strength or weakness.

Here’s the chart grid:

The grid above only highlights the MSCI iShares Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) so be sure to go beyond this grid for a more complex picture of international markets.

Here’s a grid to identify the symbols and countries represented above (you can use this grid as a reference):

Just by studying the quick chart grid above, let’s highlight the strongest and weakest country ETFs.

I highlighted the ‘relative weakness’ in red to represent trends where price is at or very new new 2014 lows.

Also, note that virtually all country ETF funds listed above peaked in mid-2014 and have been trending lower.

Specifically, weakness is occurring in Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore and Spain.

It’s probably not appropriate to call it “relative strength” but Belgium, Japan, the Netherlands, and Sweden are showing prices rallying up (or higher) than their 2014 October lows.

Compare this grid to other related country ETFs along with the US S&P 500 and index ETFs.

Focus on strength and trade with the relative strength leadership instead of trying to call an elusive bottom (reversal) in weak names – the same logic applies to stocks and country ETFs.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

16
Dec

Dec 15 VSpike Reversal Intraday Update and Stock Scan

After what looked like a positive opening, stocks continued their sell-swing lower, breaking the 2,000 support level.

A bullish divergence and V-Spike Reversal took price back to – then under – 2,000 which will be our focal point for the day.

Let’s update our levels and highlight the strongest trending stocks to trade for the moment:

For now, the 2,000 index level will be key for planning real-time trades and strategies today and perhaps beyond.

The market is downtrending on the lower frames and completing a retracement on the higher frames.

Despite the initial bearish activity, Sector Breadth is flashing a slight bullish signal:

Only two sectors have positive breadth readings now – Discretionary and Energy – but the relative strength today is concentrated in the offensive (bullish) sectors.

Relative weakness – except for Fiancials – appears in the defensive (bearish) sectors of Health Care and Utilities.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Burlington (BURL), Riverbed Tech (RVBD), and Advisory Board (ABCO).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

QIWI, Rayonier (RYN), Liberty Media (LMCA), and Novartis (NVS).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

14
Dec

Dec 10 Breakdown and Breakout Intraday Update with Stock Scan

After a stellar intraday reversal yesterday, sellers continued their pressure today with a breakdown Trend Day.

Let’s update our levels and highlight the strongest trending stocks to trade for the moment:

Our key focal point yesterday was the 2,035 level from which the V-Spike Reversal developed

Price traded toward the 2,060 level and now has fallen sharply lower on dual divergences back to the 2,035 target level.

Simple as it is, we’ll continue to reference 2,035 as the intraday pivot where aggressive short-sell trades develop under and cautious/neutral bullish plays develop above it.

Sector Breadth can be deemed cautious or bearish at the moment:

All sectors are experienced broad-based selling today and the only “strong” sector is the Staples sector with 20% of stocks positive.

In reality, all sectors are under distribution and no sector at the moment should be considered “strong.”

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Bemis (BMS), Astrazeneca (AZN), Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), and Ventas (VTR).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Yum Brands (YUM), Wynn Resorts, Jacobs Engineering (JEC), and Atlas Energy (ATLS).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

12
Dec

Dec 11 Power Rally Intraday Update and Stock Scan

Right on cue, and directly from the key confluence level I highlighted yesterday, the bulls intervened to thrust this market higher again with a sharp retracement swing higher.

Should we have expected anything different?

Let’s update our levels and highlight the strongest trending stocks to trade for the moment:

Buyers rushed to prevent the ongoing sell-off from a double-bottom play off 2,025.

This led to a powerful short-squeeze and bull-dominated impulse to the current 2,055 pivot level from which we’ll frame today’s session.

A clean trigger break above 2,055 – which seems less likely due to the divergences and falling TICK channel – would simply trigger another short-squeeze bullish play toward 2,060 and higher.

More likely, the market consolidates within the 2,050 and 2,055 range.  However, be prepared to short a trigger-break under 2,049.

Unlike yesterday, Sector Breadth is purely bullish now:

Like yesterday’s update where every single sector was bearish, today’s update reveals every single sector to be BULLISH.

There’s not much information that can be gleaned from that in terms of targeting strong or weak sectors today.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Walgreen (WAG), EBAY, Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Shire (SHPG).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Olin Corp (OLN), MasTec (MTZ), Huntsman (HUN), and Garmin (GRMN).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

11
Dec

Look Out Below if this Simple Support Level fails for the SP500

The S&P 500 has retraced quickly to a known support target and we’ll focus on this current confluence level with great interest.

Let’s highlight this level and plan a pathway if buyers fail to intervene here as they’ve done in the past (on the weekly chart).

A simple plan would have us focus on the 2,020 highlighted confluence of the September price high with the rising 50 day EMA.

You can actually see recently how price has broken under the 50 day EMA for a continued retracement (August and then October).

Simply stated, our focus should currently be on the 2,020 for a bounce-rally or support-break sell-off.

While 2,020 is important on the Daily Chart, a more important level emerges from the Weekly Chart:

The rising 20 week EMA aligns with the 2,000 “Round Number” level which – arguably – is more important than the current low near 2,020.

I drew green arrows to highlight prior touches or “tests” of the rising 20 week EMA where buyers intervened as they found a spot to buy into the rising support floor of the moving average.

The one exception (from 2013 to present) was the October sell-off that took price sharply lower toward the next logical target – the rising 50 week EMA then near 1,875 (the closing low).

Intervention occurred and price surged once again to new highs to continue the stimulus-fueled uptrend.

The question now is whether buyers will once again stop the sell-off in its tracks at or  near these logical support levels (2,020 initially then 2,000) or else whether they’ll let the market shake out once again to trade down to the lower support confluence near 1,940.

To be clear, the 1,940 downside target develops from the overlap of the rising 50 week EMA (1,922) and the rising 200 day SMA (1,945).

For now, concentrate your attention and real-time trades near 2,020 and 2,000.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

10
Dec

FT: Mifid explained

A review of Europe’s main markets legislation, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, comes into effect in a couple of years. The FT’s Philip Stafford explains how it has incorporated lessons from financial crisis and how it is likely to change trading.

FT Trading Room

9
Dec

Fibonacci Price Level Planning Grid for Tesla TSLA

Dec 9, 2014: 3:12 PM CST

What broader price levels are important for trading (or planning trades in) Tesla?

Let’s chart our broader Fibonacci Confluence Grid and find out where these levels overlap for targets and entries:

The chart above shows how I constructed the Fibonacci Confluence Grids.

For planning, be sure to view the tighter-zoomed chart below:

The main idea is that the Fibonacci is NOT magical; it’s not going to predict where price will turn at the exact level.

It’s a guide for planning, particularly when we see multiple levels overlap (intersect) at very similar levels.

At the moment, we’re seeing three short-term levels to watch:

  • The $ 234.00 per share smaller overlap
  • The wider $ 215.00 to $ 220.00 level (which can also be seen as the “Neckline” of a Head and Shoulders Pattern)
  • The wider $ 195.00 to $ 200.00 level which is a possible downside target if price fails to break above $ 220.00 here.

Again, these are guideposts to target and locate stop-losses (beyond these levels).

Incorporate these overlapping Fibonacci Levels into your current analysis and indicator signals.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

8
Dec

Watch these Key Levels for Trading the Breakdown in WYNN

If you’re trading WYNN stock or considering it – or just want to learn a neat real-time lesson as price breaks lower – then take a moment to view the current trend, charts, and levels.

We’ll start with the broader picture trend on the Monthly Frame:

Just based on monthly closing highs, the key simple level on the Monthly Chart is the current $ 160 per share shelf.

However, the rising 50 week EMA intersects $ 150 as a likely downside target should the price floor fail.

Notice the two prior sell-swings (2007’s reversal and 2011’s pullback) and compare the current retracement.

While the trend is up – and WYNN has more than increased 10 times from the $ 20.00 low – price does tend to swing from pro-trend to counter-trend phases (we’re seeing a counter-trend phase now on the higher frame).

Of course, that counter-trend on the monthly chart is a DOWNTREND on the Lower Frames:

WYNN is crafting a series of lower lows and lower highs and retracing past the 50% “half-way” Fibonacci Level.

The $ 170 level (highlighted) failed and price is now open to fall through the pocket toward the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci Level and 200 week SMA near $ 150.

Keep in mind that $ 150 is also the rising 50 month EMA – a multi-indicator simple confluence.

Finally, we have the clear downtrend/sell phase as seen on the Daily Chart.

Note the prior sideways highlight from May until the September breakdown under the $ 195.00/$ 200.00 per share level.

The September sell-off sent price toward the $ 175.00 support shelf when another smaller range developed between $ 175 to $ 190.

This week, price collapsed down under $ 175 and may be trading down first into the $ 160 level and then potentially the $ 150 higher frame support confluence.

For objective (non-biased) planning, keep in mind that a firm rally back above $ 175 could invalidate the downside targets and spring a BEAR trap.

If shorting this stock, be aware of the trap outcome (which targets $ 190 if firmly above $ 175).

Keep watching these levels and planning your real-time strategies accordingly.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

6
Dec

Dec 5 Stock Scan and New High Market Update

Can this market actually go down?

No.  It can’t.  Absolutely not.  A sell swing would be silly.

I’m being sarcastic of course, though it doesn’t feel far from the truth!

Buyers swooped in to thrust the market higher, building on yesterday’s two V-Spike intervention reversals.

Let’s update our levels and highlight the strongest trending stocks to trade for the moment:

Building on the strong Jobs Report, buyers put more money to work and sellers (bears) bought-back to cover more losing positions, resulting in another new all-time high for the Dow Jones and S&P 500.

So far, price is declining (at the moment) from the 2,080 level and we’ll focus our attention on 2,075 for now as the intraday pivot.

Sector Breadth can be deemed cautious or bearish at the moment:

Can you believe there’s not a single Utilities sector stock (in the S&P 500) positive on the session right now?

While we’re not seeing any 100% positive readings, sector strength today appears in the BULLISH or Offensive/Risk-On sectors.

We’re seeing a bit of strength in Health Care but clearly not in other Defensive/Risk-Off Names.

This confirms the bullish money flow at the moment.  Enjoy the bullish action while it lasts.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

East West Bancorp (EWBC), FMC, Northrop Grumman (NOC), and TD Ameritrade Holdings (AMTD).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Retail names Big Lots (BIG), Five Below (FIVE), and Petsmart (PETM) along with Vince Holdings (VNCE).

It may go against everything you believe in to stay with this bullish trend, but doing anything else has dashed may trading accounts.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

4
Dec

December 4 VSpike Reversal Intraday Update and Scan

Can this market actually go down?  It seems like the answer is no – at least not for long.

Buyers swooped in once again to thrust the market higher on the hint of a possible decline in the market, using the retracement as a knee-jerk reaction to buy.

Let’s update our levels and highlight the strongest trending stocks to trade for the moment:

The morning retracement was reversed violently – another “V-Spike” Pattern – off the 2,063 level and the index short-squeezed its way to another all-time high.

Our pivot point continues to be the 2,075 level where the market is “ignore it all” breakout bullish (short-squeeze) above 2,076 and otherwise cautious as price fills out the range between the 2,063 and 2,075 level.

Stay with price and avoid bias and expectations in this market environment.

Sector Breadth can be deemed cautious or bearish at the moment:

All sectors except Materials are trading beneath their 50% Breadth line, meaning more stocks are negative than positive for the session.

The pockets of strength include two of the three Defensive Sectors:  Health Care and Utilities.

Otherwise, the weakest pockets include the middle of the chart – Industrials, Energy and Staples.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Hawaiian Electric (HE), Salix (SLXP), Enbridge (ENB), and Avago Tech (AVGO).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Sanofi Aventis (SNY), Wynn Resorts (back again – WYNN), and Guess (GES).

It may go against everything you believe in to stay with this bullish trend, but doing anything else has dashed may trading accounts.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

© Copyright 2010-2014 Investing Advisers. All rights reserved.