27
Jul

FT: Brexit and Europe’s electronic trading

Amsterdam has a rich trading history — birthplace of the public company and home to the world’s first stock exchange. Yet its status as a leading electronic trading hub is under threat by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. The FT’s Philip Stafford reports.

FT Trading Room

27
Jul

Triangle Midday Market Update and Stock Scan July 26

Today’s market activity was a volatile, big swing event that resulted in an intraday triangle pattern.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

Price continues to trade within the wider range between the 2,160 and 2,175 level.

While it’s a lengthy consolidation rectangle, today saw a tighter triangle compression take hold near 2,165.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

ZERO stocks in the Utility sector were positive today and 10% of stocks in Staples were positive.

This suggests a bullish edge to Money Flow as seen at the sector performance level.

All Offensive Sectors were above 50% and trending higher as seen in the grid above.

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Wolverine (WWW), Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog (ADI), and Caterpillar (CAT)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Cadence (CDNS), McDonald’s (MCD), Reynold’s (RAI), and Coors Brewing (TAP).

See this morning’s update about McDonald’s (MCD) collapsing.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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26
Jul

Elliott Wave Forex Signals – Adjusting Stop and Target GBPNZD

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I’ll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED July 7, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM’s sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don’t want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here’s the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200


POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

25
Jul

Elliott Wave S&P Futures Signals

S&P Index Chart Signals

In my last post I projected a selloff the next day. The next day resulted in 8 S&P futures points being sold off. That is not nearly what I had expected.  However, the decline did not alleviate any of the bearish signals in place, on multiple time frames, and multiple different markets. And today the sell signals have spread to the S&P and Dow cash indexes on the 130 minute charts as you can see you above.


Elliott Wave S&P Futures Signals

My above wave count may be a bit aggressive. I think the market will go sideways and then rally somewhere surrounding the Fed announcement. That should mark the end of a five wave EWP rally.  

There are a lot of fibonacci levels on the above chart, but the important price levels are 2200 – 2207 which should cap the rally. Then I see the market declining to 2167 before potentially finding a bottom.



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Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

25
Jul

Same Pullback Same Emini Fibonacci Grid Plan July 25

Jul 25, 2016: 11:11 AM CST

We start the new week with clear echoes to last week.

Namely, we’re still trading within a clear range with clear resistance and support targets in play.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

Here’s a reference guide of how to use and trade from these morning updates.

We still can’t use our larger Fibonacci Retracement Grid levels WITHOUT an actual larger retracement.

Positiveand Negative Divergences developed both at the resistance (2,170) and support (2,155) @ES levels as price played “ping-pong” between these pivot points.

The higher Fibonacci Retracement appears at the 2,149 level.

Until we get a breakout, we’ll continue playing the range as highlighted.

Price continues to play between 2,170 and 2,155 and those are the key reference levels for intraday trading now.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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25
Jul

Elliott Wave Forex Signals – Closing Half.GBPNZD at 143 pip Profit


GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I’m leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

____________________________________________

POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I’ll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

_____________________________

POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM’s sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don’t want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here’s the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200


POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

Please support the blog and like this post :-) Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

24
Jul

Elliott Wave Forex Signals – Closed Remaining GBPNZD Position at 165 pip Profit

GBPNZD chart



The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300.  It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here.  My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade.  Here are the final results:

1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit 
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips 

GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I’m leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

____________________________________________

POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I’ll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

_____________________________

POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM’s sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don’t want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here’s the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

Please support the blog and like this post :-) Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

23
Jul

Down Drips Crude Oil to New Swing Lows July 22

Jul 22, 2016: 1:00 PM CST

In a somewhat surprising outcome, Crude Oil dips to a new swing low at the same time the US Stock Market rallies back toward all-time highs.

This disconnect is interesting as we turn our attention to the bend in the intermarket relationship.

Generally Crude Oil and Stocks exhibit a positive correlation (they both move in the same direction).

However a disconnect took hold from June into July as Crude Oil traded steadily lower while stocks advanced amazingly higher to all-time highs.

Despite positive momentum divergences on the hourly chart, Crude Oil continued its short-term downtrend toward – and now under – the $ 45.00 per barrel price target.

The commodity has declined from its recent peak above $ 52.00 per barrel to the current $ 44.00 level.

What looked like a possible bullish reversal up has now turned into a sharp sell-swing and breakdown lower.

Focus your attention on the $ 45.00 per barrel target and look to play the swing AWAY FROM this key pivot.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

23
Jul

Stock Market Analysis – More Sell Signals Confirmed

VIX Chart



The VIX has not also confirmed a sell signal on the 130min chart, signaling that the upcoming decline in the S&P will be much larger than 20 points. Now I am expecting a 35-40 point minimum decline from where the top is registered.  However, that is only a minimum decline level, it’s just a starting point.  It has only printed three waves in on this rally so a strong decline to confirm that it was only a three wave rally could be a sign that something much bigger is happening to the downside.

Nasdaq 100 Chart

The Nasdaq 100 is starting to get in on the fun too as it has now confirmed a bearish signal.  The S&P has yet to confirm a bearish signal on the index itself, however the VIX has confirmed bearish stock market moves on both the 30min and 130min charts.  So a stock market decline is near.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

22
Jul

Intermarket Divergence Signals Selloff Tuesday

S&P, TF and EMD Charts



Just a quick note to add to my bearish signals in place.  The market is taking longer than usual to decline after confirming a signal, but at today’s close there was a noticeable intermarket divergence between the S&P, Russel and S&P MidCap futures indexes as you can see from the charts above.  The S&P made a new high while the TF and EMD failed to even come close to doing so and have declined.  Breaking below the previous swing low if the Globex session would help confirm a top is in and that the market is poised for a selloff Tuesday.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Principle Analysis: an Elliott Wave Blog for Forex Signals, Futures Signals and Stock Signals

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