1
Apr

Big Bullish Breakout Market Update and Trending Stock Scan

If Friday’s triangle range day session (see update) was boring, today’s expected breakout is thrilling and has rewarded those who were patient, awaiting the virtually guaranteed breakout.

Let’s update our chart, highlight the impressive breakout and Trend Day, and chart the strongest stocks:

Friday’s range day session was just a spring coiling and building energy to release for today’s powerful impulse that reverses the short-term trend back to the bulls/buyers.

We’re back in the bull-market price behavior with playing against the 2,090 index level here.

Unless we see an immediate reversal lower against 2,090, then the market remains bullishly biased above 2,090.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Bull, bull, bull!  Did you expect anything different from Breadth?

There’s little differentiation in the main sectors – though Energy is the weakest – and the message from Breadth simply confirms the reactive, impulsive money flow back into the US Stock Market.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Fortune Brands (FBHS), Dynergy (DYN), Avery Dennison (AVY), and Travelers (TRV).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

ZIP ZERO NADA – do not fight a powerful trend day!

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

29
Mar

Wake Me Up When The Range Day Ends Market Update and Stock Scan March 27

Wait – was the market open today?  So far nothing’s happened.

I’m kidding but that’s not far from the truth as today has devolved into a low volatility tight range day.

Let’s dive inside the sector and stock action and get away from this boring price action in the S&P 500 index.

There’s not much to say about the sideways action which has taken the form of a triangle.

Don’t guess in which direction price will break; instead note the level and join the buyers/bulls on an upside break above 2,060 or the bears on a breakdown under 2,057.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

There are pockets of strength… but unfortunately they send a general bearish message.

Relative Sector Strength today comes from Staples, Health Care, and Utilities (defensive names).

Weakness occurs in Financials and Energy.

It’s a sign of defensiveness – at least in terms of money flow – when money focuses on the ‘bearish’ sectors.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Olin (OLN), Carnival (CCL), Biomarin (BMRN), and Royal Caribbean (RCL).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Starwood (STWD), Toronto-Dominion (TD), Valero Energy (VLO), and Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

27
Mar

VSpike Reversal Intraday Market Update and Focused Stock Scan

The selling pressure continued today yet a strong V-Spike Reversal off the 2,050 level may signal a short-term price bottom.

Let’s update our S&P 500 chart and highlight the strongest – and weakest – stocks on the session:

A slight positive divergence occurred on a V-Spike Price Reversal this morning off the 2,050 level, resulting in an “ABC” retracement toward 2,060.

We’re monitoring the 2,063 and 2,057 levels as a neutral pivot with a bearish “pro-trend” bias under 2,055 and a reversal bullish bias on a breakout above the 2,063 level (and 2,065).

Note the upside targets along with the downside retest – and likely break under 2,050 – should the intraday downtrend continue.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

At the moment, the market is neutral/bearish and the Sector Grid is neutral/bearish in its signal.

All sectors – with the exception of Discretionary and Industrials – trade near the 40% Breadth Level which is just beneath the 50% “halfway” mark.

Today’s session is a bearish one – so far – and there’s no magic signal otherwise from our Breadth Grid.

Perhaps there is one bullish sign of life – the strongest sector today (not by much) is Financials.

Here’s a new addition to the daily market update – the Big Point Winners and Losers Grid:

Keep in mind that this simple scan has a bias to high-priced stock names.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Novo-Nordisk (NVO), Starwood Hotels (hot0, Red haT (RHT), and Signet Jewelers (SIG)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

SanDisk (SNDK), Melco (MPEL), Werner (WERN), and American Express (AXP)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

25
Mar

Selloff Market Update and Trending Stock Scan March 25

We have a second sell-session in a row as the S&P 500 moves down from the 2,100 key level.

Let’s update our S&P 500 chart and highlight the strongest – and weakest – stocks on the session:

As the S&P 500 failed to hold the 2,100 level, an slow-moving avalanche of selling pressure (liquidation) crept the market lower.  Today’s session sees the avalanche moving quicker mid-day into the current 2,070 pivot level.

We’re using 2,070 – the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (not drawn) – as our intraday potential reversal pivot.

The market would be intraday bullish above the 2,075 level and continuation/breakdown bearish under 2,070.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

There’s nothing at all surprising about weak sector breadth in the context of a sell session.

However, we do see a huge surprise on the chart coming from the strong – almost 100% positive – Energy (XLE) sector which is today’s shining bullish star.

If you’re looking to play bullishly into the close on a reversal, focus on Energy.

Otherwise, pick a sector and trade from the short-side, particularly Technology and Financials.

Here’s a new addition to the daily market update – the Big Point Winners and Losers Grid:

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Halliburton (HAL), Marathon Oil (MRO), Schlumberger (SLB), and Valero Energy (VLO)

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Apollo Education (APOL), Nationstar (NSM), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), and Texas Instruments (TXN)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

25
Mar

FT: Derivatives hit the FTSE

Recent days have seen unusually high volumes in FTSE 100 futures just before the close, exacerbating market falls. James Mackintosh, investment editor, explores the renewed popularity of complex volatility trading as a possible cause.

FT Trading Room

24
Mar

EURUSD Poised to Fall

EURUSD looks like its round of 2nd wave rallies is coming to an end. On the 30min chart it printed new high followed be a new low. This might be a subtle clue that resistance at this level will hold.

If the count is correct, it’s dollar bullish so look for the dollar to recover and move higher across the board soon.


Principle Analysis: An Elliott Wave Blog

24
Mar

Join Me Live for Monday Morning Market Panel Update

Mar 22, 2015: 8:31 PM CST

Join me live Monday Morning for real-time market commentary and strategy planning for the week ahead!

I’ll be returning as a guest on Timing Research.com’s live broadcast this Monday, March 23rd at 1:00pm EST / 10:00am PST.

It’s a great opportunity to start the week fresh with targeted analysis and opportunity planning for the week ahead as discussed by four trading experts.

This week I’ll be joined by my good friend Dave Landry who will be hosting, along with Neil Batho and Eddie Z.

I greatly enjoyed being a guest and sharing ideas – and learning from others in the discussion – and hope you can join us live again for this week’s show.

It’s free to attend – be sure to sign-up now to get your direct link to the presentation and join us all live!

Corey


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

22
Mar

Post Fed Money Flow and Dollar Flash Crash Update

Markets today retraced part of the sudden movement following yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement.

Let’s take a quick fly-by glance at the cross-market money flow reaction, today’s retracement, and something you missed if you weren’t watching the Dollar Index last night.

With the Fed dropping the word “patient” from its forecast, the Fed counteracted that hawkish comment with a reminder that recent economic conditions have deteriorated and thus a rake hike is not imminent.

Buyers flooded back into stocks, bursting them higher at the same time the Dollar stalled then collapsed.

On the heels of the collapsing Dollar, Gold and Oil caught a big and rallied sharply off support lows.

Here’s a closer view of the 1-min S&P 500 mega-reaction:

There really wasn’t a counter-reaction once the news was released, and the bullish pressure continued through Chair Yellen’s press conference that followed.

Price has pulled back (retraced) today after the snap-reaction and we’ll be monitoring higher frame levels.

There’s something fascinating you missed if you didn’t watch the Dollar after yesterday’s close:

Look closely at the timestamp which is from the Pacific Time (PST).

The stock market closed at 1:00pm PST and the Federal Reserve policy announcement was at 11:00am PST.

The Dollar – as would be expected – initially fell but stabilized into the 98.00 level (@DX Futures Contract).

What happened next was instant – a mini-Flash Crash Collapse shocked the market and broke the price from 98.00 to 95 in about five minutes.

Just like the prior Flash Crash, this was a one-off, temporary move where price rebalanced and recovered, but it still reminds us of the risk inherent in these markets.

Continue monitoring these impulse moves and reactions (retracements) in the post-Fed activity.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

21
Mar

Aussie Looking Weak Across the Board

YAussie pairs look weak across the board, along with the euro and pound which I posted yesterday. If my AUDJPY count is right, this puppy is setting up for some big selling ahead.

The daily chart shows that it’s been trading in a range for long time so a break of that range to the downside would be ideal for this count. But risk is so tight here at the wave 2 extreme that shorting now is also a viable strategy.

AUDJPY 6 HOUR



Principle Analysis: An Elliott Wave Blog

21
Mar

March 19 Retracement Market Update and Big Stock Scan

After the Federal Reserve dropped the “patient” language but reminded us that recent economic conditions have deteriorated, making a June hike less likely, stocks rallied sharply and short-sellers rushed to buy-back losing positions which helped propel price higher in a large short-squeeze.

Today’s session has seen a logical retracement of yesterday’s big move, so let’s chart our key levels.

Price completed a slingshot rally from 2,060 to 2,105 instantly and today’s session saw a 50% retrace of yesterday’s big rally.

At the moment, price is rallying up off the halfway retracement (roughly 2,085) and breaking above a flag or triangle/wedge price pattern.

This puts the index back in the bullish “Open Air” territory as long as price remains above the 2,090 pivot.

Otherwise, note the red ’sell’ zone under 2,090.

Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

Today’s session clearly reveals mixed Breadth with the strongest sectors Technology and Health Care outshining all other sectors.

The weakest sectors are Materials, Energy, and Utilities where Breadth (positive stocks) nears zero.

The message today is generally bearish but we could see that shift more bullish should stocks rally and remain above 2,090 as mentioned above.

Otherwise, under 2,090 suggests that Breadth was correct – bearish positions were favored today.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks from our scan:

Kite Pharma (KITE), Isis Pharma (ISIS), Vipshop (VIPS), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

YELP, Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT), and ETrade (ETFC)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

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