My only two disputes:

1) This thing is going to plummet far past 10K once the government no
longer controls it -- nothing in the market is worth 10 cents on the
dollar now, since it's all just bubble-paper.

2) I saw the reports on the IMF chief stating a major US bank will
fail in the next few months -- my only dispute is: "Just one, or ALL
OF THEM??"

Mike

  I get the feeling you are standing n the shadows, rubbing your hands
together and
grinning as if the above scenario  can't happen fast enough for you.

 Why,  I ask,  would such a disaster please you?

My only two disputes:

1) This thing is going to plummet far past 10K once the government no
longer controls it -- nothing in the market is worth 10 cents on the
dollar now, since it's all just bubble-paper.

2) I saw the reports on the IMF chief stating a major US bank will
fail in the next few months -- my only dispute is:  "Just one, or ALL
OF THEM??"

Mike

 i used to think that the 3000-5000 range is its true value.

considering most companies really are nothing except paper. they have
so little real operations left of their own. but today looks even
worse than the 1920's. the huge debt loads on everyone's backs is
truly scary.

 what we are witnessing right now is a slow motion default by america,
to the rest of the world, and that default is spreading to defaults in
other countries. as we try to keep the world under milton freidmans
evil world view, we run the risk of others just walking away from us
as we try to clamp down on the worlds liberty.

 we are teetering on fascism, and that will only make things worse in
the long run. one has to wonder how long the idiots in europe will
keep backing our plays once it becomes obvious we are completely
bankrupt?

 i have always thought a free market economy could zero itself in
value, and as the free marketters become ever more viscious in their
tactics to retain control, they sure could achieve it.

 lust look at the federal reserve. bernanke the libertarian is going
to print money come hell or high water to prove that miltons
revisionist assumptions on the causes and cures of the great
depression were right. he is failing miserably, yet, he keeps throwing
good money at bad people, and its still getting worse.

 the conservatives brought this upon themselves. we are not gloating,
we understand what they did to us. but the gullible middle class
conservatives are standing their getting raped, and confused as hell.
you gotta feel sorry for them in a way. to bad they will almost surely
get wiped out, almost every last one of them, and they are to
indoctrinated to understand who is at fault. they will stand under
bridges cursing the wrong people, listening to rush as they try to
stay warm, and eating what ever they can scrounge.

My only two disputes:

1) This thing is going to plummet far past 10K once the government no
longer controls it -- nothing in the market is worth 10 cents on the
dollar now, since it's all just bubble-paper.

2) I saw the reports on the IMF chief stating a major US bank will
fail in the next few months -- my only dispute is:  "Just one, or ALL
OF THEM??"

Mike

is that likely? no. govt will print the money... try to stall...
it doesnt work though, particuarly in the US with its manufacturing
and those jobs moving offshore... we have no way to fund govt.

and no... our GDP is not up.... its crashed badly... govt spins that
too... adding in dogcatch wages, and govt purchases as GDP, when in
fact they are 100% net costs...not production.

On Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:58:04 -0700 (PDT), phil scott

p...@philscott.net> wrote:
is that likely?  no.   govt will print the money... try to stall...
it doesnt work though, particuarly in the US with its manufacturing
and those jobs moving offshore... we have no way to fund govt.

and no... our GDP is not up.... its crashed badly... govt spins that
too... adding in dogcatch wages, and govt purchases as GDP, when in
fact they are 100% net costs...not production.

We've already seen how easy it is for the US Gov to shore up what
folks call a "market"...On a whim, they can move it up 1K
points...There's so much artificial liquidity in the system now that
there's no turning back...As such, the most fraudulent investment
mechanism in the free world will continue to be manipulated, and the
real investor, hard working American's trickling money into 401K
plans, will likely see another 7 years of ZERO RETURNS from this
criminal fraud....

On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:06:47 -0700, phil scott wrote:
a rosier view might be stocks rising at 15% and inflation at 15% for a
net wasted investment,
subtracting brokerage fees etc. and lost opportunity costs of having the
money tied up the investor still looses.

the expense ratio on vanguard's sp500 fund (vfinx) is .15%, and given
your breakeven scenario described above there is no opportunity cost
unless you have an alternative investment that can generate a return
higher than 15% (and i'd hate to see the risk profile on that
investment), anything less would be an inferior investment to the stock
market.  the bottom line is that you will get hammered more by inflation
from lower yielding investments than you will by staying in the stock
market which always compensates for inflation (by going higher) in the
long term.

a rosier view might be stocks rising at 15% and inflation at 15% for a
net wasted investment,
subtracting brokerage fees etc. and lost opportunity costs of having the
money tied up the investor still looses.

On Aug 22, 7:32 am, Mike <M...@localdoman.localhost> wrote:
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:06:47 -0700, phil scott wrote:
a rosier view might be stocks rising at 15% and inflation at 15% for
a net wasted investment,
subtracting brokerage fees etc. and lost opportunity costs of having
the money tied up the investor still looses.

the expense ratio on vanguard's sp500 fund (vfinx) is .15%, and given
your breakeven scenario described above there is no opportunity cost
unless you have an alternative investment that can generate a return
higher than 15% (and i'd hate to see the risk profile on that
investment), anything less would be an inferior investment to the stock
market.  the bottom line is that you will get hammered more by
inflation from lower yielding investments than you will by staying in
the stock market which always compensates for inflation (by going
higher) in the long term.

correct in theory ... and.. on paper, but not always in reality. For
example in 1929, many stocks simply
vanished from the face of the earth... a 100% loss. The 'average'
did those investors no good.

Even diversified investment can have similar issues, evidenced by what
happened in Japan, Argentina and Russia... what comes back is not always
what bit the dust.. but another, entitity, laundered from the losses and
not carrying any prior baggage or investors.

but yes, some real smart guys and a few lucky ones can buy right at the
bottom and come out the top in good shape... most dont... in comodities
and futures markets its about 1% comes out on top. 99% loose thier
ass. what comes out the top usually are people with insider pull and
information... not players.... but those who run the companies and short
sell or buy long because by proxie (hidden)...because only they know
what they themselves will do or say next.

We've already seen how easy it is for the US Gov to shore up what
folks call a "market"...On a whim, they can move it up 1K
points...There's so much artificial liquidity in the system now that
there's no turning back...As such, the most fraudulent investment
mechanism in the free world will continue to be manipulated, and the
real investor, hard working American's trickling money into 401K
plans, will likely see another 7 years of ZERO RETURNS from this
criminal fraud....

On Fri, 22 Aug 2008 08:10:10 -0700, phil scott wrote:
On Aug 22, 7:32 am, Mike <M...@localdoman.localhost> wrote:
On Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:06:47 -0700, phil scott wrote:
a rosier view might be stocks rising at 15% and inflation at 15% for
a net wasted investment,
subtracting brokerage fees etc. and lost opportunity costs of having
the money tied up the investor still looses.

the expense ratio on vanguard's sp500 fund (vfinx) is .15%, and given
your breakeven scenario described above there is no opportunity cost
unless you have an alternative investment that can generate a return
higher than 15% (and i'd hate to see the risk profile on that
investment), anything less would be an inferior investment to the stock
market.  the bottom line is that you will get hammered more by
inflation from lower yielding investments than you will by staying in
the stock market which always compensates for inflation (by going
higher) in the long term.

correct in theory ... and.. on paper, but not always in reality.   For
example in 1929, many stocks simply
vanished from the face of the earth... a 100% loss.     The 'average'
did those investors no good.

Even diversified investment can have similar issues, evidenced by what
happened in Japan, Argentina and Russia... what comes back is not always
what bit the dust.. but another, entitity, laundered from the losses and
not carrying any prior baggage or investors.

but yes, some real smart guys and a few lucky ones can buy right at the
bottom and come out the top in good shape... most dont... in comodities
and futures markets its about 1% comes out on top.   99% loose thier
ass.   what comes out the top usually are people with insider pull and
information... not players.... but those who run the companies and short
sell or buy long because by proxie (hidden)...because only they know
what they themselves will do or say next.

yes i agree with that, unfortunately it's reality. that's why i only
recommend investing in the stock market via the sp500.  the strategy is:
if you can't beat 'em join 'em.  may not know the specifics of where &
when the rich guys are going to make money but rest assured they *will*
make money and that will be reflected in the performance of the sp500
over the long term.  

my investment strategy is actually a bit more involved in that i track
where the market is in relation to the long-term (80 year) trendline and
use the difference to adjust (inversely) the proportion of stock holdings
(vs. money market).- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

On Aug 21, 4:09 am, aeron...@flight.net wrote:

We've already seen how easy it is for the US Gov to shore up what
folks call a "market"...On a whim, they can move it up 1K
points...There's so much artificial liquidity in the system now that
there's no turning back...As such, the most fraudulent investment
mechanism in the free world will continue to be manipulated, and the
real investor, hard working American's trickling money into 401K
plans, will likely see another 7 years of ZERO RETURNS from this
criminal fraud....

They won't be able to keep it up another 7 years.  Once the major
banks start failing, they might not be able to keep it up another 7
hours.

That's why I'm not sure I can give the financial system of this
country 7 weeks.  I mean, they can only print so much before the
entire system goes blooey.  They've already passed the trillion-dollar
mark.

On top of that, one of four things is going to happen in the next 10
weeks:

Major bank failure and run on the banks
Assassination of a top-level US official (either Bush, Cheney, Obama,
or McCain -- my bet's Obama is a dead man walking)
War with Iran or Russia (or both)
or another state-sponsored terra attack.

The countdown to TEOTWAWKI starts Monday, right after the Olympic
fraud ends.

Mike