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ps56k

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 6:53 pm

Guest

Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus - HRVIX
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox

It is actually showing positve gains,
while the rest of the Small Cap group is negative.

I'm currently holding TRowe PRNHX - and was just comparing -
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=prnhx&nav=searchbox

--
----------------------------------
"If everything seems to be going well,
you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright

David

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 6:53 pm

Guest

On Aug 6, 3:53 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:

Quote:

from 28 to 23.2, in one day at the end of last december! Have you
looked at the one-year chart? Then it dropped down to 20.3 over the
next couple of weeks. That's down 27.5% in about two weeks! What was
that due to? Since then it has climbed back to just below 25, but the
200-Day SMA has been going down since last November. Looks like one to
avoid unless you like a gamble, have nerves of steel and are feeling
lucky.

Quote:

I'm currently holding TRowe PRNHX - and was just comparing -http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=prnhx&nav=searchbox

-
PRNHX? Where do you find these funds! It peaked at 37.5 last October

and it has been downhill all the way ever since. It is now at 28, down
25% from the peak, and below a declining MA200, so one would hope you
had sold out long ago. You should have sold in November at 34.7 when
it dropped below the MA200. When it starts to go down it is time to
bail out!

Quote:

----------------------------------
"If everything seems to be going well,
you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright

David

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:27 pm

Guest

On Aug 6, 5:38 pm, BreadWithS...@fractious.net wrote:

Quote:

David <da...@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> writes:
On Aug 6, 3:53 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:
Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus -
HRVIX
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox
HRVIX is only showing positive gains YTD because it dropped by 17%,
from 28 to 23.2, in one day at the end of last december! Have you

That one day was a *distribution* of $4.073/sh. It was *not*
a drop in value of the magnitude you are claiming (on that day).
It has unfortunate tax-efficiency implications (in a taxable
account) but has no direct impact on returns.

See, for example,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HRVIX&a=5&b=20&c=1996&d=7&e=6&f=2008&...

In '07 and '08 - both - HRVIX has trounced its M* fund category
(small cap value)

--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting

Wow! I would never have guessed a 14.5% distribution for a fund. It
was presumably a one-off as their other dividends are like $0.032/sh
or 0.1% and almost imperceptible on the chart. It does tend to throw
TA into chaos unless Finance-Yahoo can show a chart with dividends re-
invested, which I don't know how to produce.

If you add the $4 back on then the present price is about 28.9 which
is still below the peak of 29.9 last September but not by much. But,
in between it would have dropped to 24.3 in January before going up
again so the investor would have seen a 19% fall from the peak then. I
don't know what the tax rates are in the USA but presumably something
like 30% capital gains tax would have been payable in a taxable
account. This would knock $1.2 off the NAVs above.

This would leave an effective NAV for HRVIX of about 27.7 now compared
to 28 a year ago so it is almost unchanged. I prefer to compare with
the S&P500 and this is down 10.3% compared to a year ago so it looks
as though HRVIX did better than that. Not bad but HRVIX has not made
the investor any money.

Flasherly

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:40 pm

Guest

On Aug 6, 10:53 am, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:

Quote:

Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus - HRVIXhttp://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox

It is actually showing positve gains,
while the rest of the Small Cap group is negative.

I'm currently holding TRowe PRNHX - and was just comparing -http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=prnhx&nav=searchbox

--
----------------------------------
"If everything seems to be going well,
you have obviously overlooked something." - Steven Wright

Down a potential 30% across the broader boards -- SCs certainly
haven't been spared. Possibly a great way to get some payback when
all is well and going great guns.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=2y&s=VBR&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hrvix%2Cprnhx%2Cdrf+vti

Guest

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:46 pm

David <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> writes:

Quote:

On Aug 6, 3:53 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:
Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus -
HRVIX
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox

HRVIX is only showing positive gains YTD because it dropped by 17%,
from 28 to 23.2, in one day at the end of last december! Have you

That one day was a *distribution* of $4.073/sh. It was *not*
a drop in value of the magnitude you are claiming (on that day).
It has unfortunate tax-efficiency implications (in a taxable
account) but has no direct impact on returns.

See, for example,
<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HRVIX&a=5&b=20&c=1996&d=7&e=6&f=2008&g=d&z=66&y=132>

In '07 and '08 - both - HRVIX has trounced its M* fund category
(small cap value)

--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting

Guest

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:07 pm

David <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> writes:

Quote:

On Aug 6, 5:38 pm, BreadWithS...@fractious.net wrote:

HRVIX

That one day was a *distribution* of $4.073/sh. It was *not*
a drop in value of the magnitude you are claiming (on that day).
It has unfortunate tax-efficiency implications (in a taxable
account) but has no direct impact on returns.

Wow! I would never have guessed a 14.5% distribution for a fund. It
was presumably a one-off as their other dividends are like $0.032/sh

All mutual funds have to distribute any net capital gains and
other income (usually dividends) at least once per year, to
satisfy the law (and to get folks to pay taxes). Some funds
are or were sitting on lots of long-term unrealized gains.
In this case, they probably were sitting one some huge such
gains and in a bit of active market repositioning (which is
how they've managed to hold up better than most over the
last 6 months), they had to sell off many positions and
thus realize (and therefore distribute) them. It's not
really possible to predict all that well when or how much
a distribution a fund will make, but an awful lot of them
do it in Dec.

Low turnover and/or index and/or tax-managed funds generally
throw off very little in the way of these distributions.
Actively managed, especially small-cap, funds with high
turnover throw of lots of them and in somewhat random
patterns.

Quote:

or 0.1% and almost imperceptible on the chart. It does tend to throw
TA into chaos unless Finance-Yahoo can show a chart with dividends re-
invested, which I don't know how to produce.

You have to generate daily (or other shorter-period) total
returns and chain them via multiplication to build up the
periods you're actually looking for. It's kind of a pain
in the butt and generally a lot easier just to pull
reported monthly or quarterly total returns pre-calculated
from sources which take care of those things for you.

Quote:

like 30% capital gains tax would have been payable in a taxable
account. This would knock $1.2 off the NAVs above.

You just can't calculate it like that. You end up with apples-to
oranges numbers. If the investor is in an IRA, the distribution
has no tax consequences whatsoever. Most long-term cap gains
are taxed currently at 15%, in taxable accounts. In the longer
run, if it's a taxable account and you get a distribution
like that and re-invest it, the reinvestment increases your
cost basis and so when you sell later on, you have lower taxes
at that time than if the gains were simply held internally
and not distributed. Is that a win or a loss? Usually one
wants to pay taxes later rather than sooner, but long-term
cap-gains distributions are only taxed once - and it's entirely
possible, even probable, that LTCG tax rates will go up.

Quote:

This would leave an effective NAV for HRVIX of about 27.7 now compared
to 28 a year ago so it is almost unchanged. I prefer to compare with
the S&P500 and this is down 10.3% compared to a year ago so it looks

Against the SP500, you're comparing, again, apples-to-oranges.
This is a small-cap value/blend fund, not a large-cap fund.

Quote:

as though HRVIX did better than that. Not bad but HRVIX has not made
the investor any money.

Not many equity funds have made anyone (except the managers)
any money in the last year.

--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting

Mark Freeland

Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:07 pm

Guest

<BreadWithSpam@fractious.net> wrote in message
news:yob4p5xzxeq.fsf@panix2.panix.com...

Quote:

David <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> writes:
Wow! I would never have guessed a 14.5% distribution for a fund. It
was presumably a one-off as their other dividends are like $0.032/sh

All mutual funds have to distribute any net capital gains and
other income (usually dividends) at least once per year, to
satisfy the law (and to get folks to pay taxes).

Technically, they don't need to in order to satisfy the law. They just
don't get to pass through taxes if they don't distribute substantially all
(which I believe is 98%) of their gains. In that case, the taxes still get
paid, by the fund itself (which would of course reduce the NAV), rather than
directly by the folks owning the funds.

Quote:

[...]
It's not
really possible to predict all that well when or how much
a distribution a fund will make, but an awful lot of them
do it in Dec.

or 0.1% and almost imperceptible on the chart. It does tend to throw
TA into chaos unless Finance-Yahoo can show a chart with dividends re-
invested, which I don't know how to produce.

Why do you need Yahoo to show a chart? - it provides all the adjusted prices
you need to plot it yourself in your favourite graphing application. Just
download the data table.

Quote:

Pull the daily figures from Yahoo. There are known bugs with its
calculations (e.g. it doesn't adjust on a daily basis for bond funds that
accrue daily dividends, which is how MMFs also work). But it's adequate for
seat-of-the-pants visual analysis (i.e. graphs).

As for Heartland - I always find it interesting that so many people will
condemn Janus for life for what had little if any dollar impact on their
investments, but will give Heartland a pass on what I consider much more
egregious. And if you don't think their funds can really drop 70% in a day,
check out their checkered past.

Mark Freeland
nNeEwTs@nyc.rr.com

David

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:41 am

Guest

On Aug 7, 5:14 am, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

Quote:

"ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote in message

news:kItmk.9308$vn7.3530@flpi147.ffdc.sbc.com...

[snip]

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c
It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the
EMA200 is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

If I were interested in applying TA to mutual funds, I would look for a fund
that uses TA. You can't analyze an NAV as if it were a price determined in
a free market. A mutual fund NAV reflects the effects of the management as
well as the price action of the basket of securities that make it up. At
the end of 200 days the fund's composition is probably different from the
first day. What is this EMA200 measuring?

-herb

ps56k

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:11 am

Guest

David wrote:

Quote:

On Aug 6, 3:53 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:
Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus -
HRVIXhttp://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox

It is actually showing positve gains,
while the rest of the Small Cap group is negative.

HRVIX is only showing positive gains YTD because it dropped by 17%,
from 28 to 23.2, in one day at the end of last december! Have you
looked at the one-year chart? Then it dropped down to 20.3 over the
next couple of weeks. That's down 27.5% in about two weeks! What was
that due to? Since then it has climbed back to just below 25, but the
200-Day SMA has been going down since last November. Looks like one to
avoid unless you like a gamble, have nerves of steel and are feeling
lucky.

I'm currently holding TRowe PRNHX - and was just comparing
-http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=prnhx&nav=searchbox

-
PRNHX? Where do you find these funds! It peaked at 37.5 last October

you mean like the rest of the entire market and financial world

Quote:

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=

It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the EMA200
is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

-herb

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:14 am

Guest

"ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam_me@interserv.com> wrote in message
news:kItmk.9308$vn7.3530@flpi147.ffdc.sbc.com...

[snip]

Quote:

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=

It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the
EMA200 is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

If I were interested in applying TA to mutual funds, I would look for a fund
that uses TA. You can't analyze an NAV as if it were a price determined in
a free market. A mutual fund NAV reflects the effects of the management as
well as the price action of the basket of securities that make it up. At
the end of 200 days the fund's composition is probably different from the
first day. What is this EMA200 measuring?

-herb

David

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:20 am

Guest

On Aug 7, 10:01 am, "Ed" <fri...@frishinthe.net> wrote:

Quote:

"David" <da...@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
You are still thinking fundamentally, Herb. It doesn't matter why the
NAV is going up or down. If it's going down, it's going down and it
will hit you in the wallet whether you understand it or not, whether
it is due to world events, fund management incompetence, a bubble
bursting or whatever. The effect is the same and as the Johnny Cash
song said you have to know when to fold 'em, know when to run!

David

David, that was Kenny Rogers.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo

Ed, Yes, of course. I should have looked it up. I am not really into
country music. It's a good song though and good advice.

David

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 1:01 pm

Guest

"David" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
You are still thinking fundamentally, Herb. It doesn't matter why the
NAV is going up or down. If it's going down, it's going down and it
will hit you in the wallet whether you understand it or not, whether
it is due to world events, fund management incompetence, a bubble
bursting or whatever. The effect is the same and as the Johnny Cash
song said you have to know when to fold 'em, know when to run!

David

David, that was Kenny Rogers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo

David

Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:23 pm

Guest

On Aug 7, 9:49 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

Quote:

"David" <da...@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message

news:e0b0a255-344b-461b-8a43-85944afe042e@79g2000hsk.googlegroups.com...
On Aug 7, 5:14 am, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

"ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote in message

news:kItmk.9308$vn7.3530@flpi147.ffdc.sbc.com...

[snip]

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c
It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the
EMA200 is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

If I were interested in applying TA to mutual funds, I would look for a
fund
that uses TA. You can't analyze an NAV as if it were a price determined in
a free market. A mutual fund NAV reflects the effects of the management as
well as the price action of the basket of securities that make it up. At
the end of 200 days the fund's composition is probably different from the
first day. What is this EMA200 measuring?

-herb

You are still thinking fundamentally, Herb. It doesn't matter why the
NAV is going up or down. If it's going down, it's going down and it
will hit you in the wallet whether you understand it or not, whether
it is due to world events, fund management incompetence, a bubble
bursting or whatever. The effect is the same and as the Johnny Cash
song said you have to know when to fold 'em, know when to run!

David

David:

When you say "it's going down" you are implying that it is trending. Some
things do indeed exhibit this trending: trendy stocks and possibly, the
market as a whole but you can't just say that about all mutual funds. Many
just fluctuate about the trendline.

Didn't you recently admit that you don't know how to graph NAVs net of
dividneds? Do you really sell every time significant capital gains are
distributed? "If it's going down..."

As you know, I am a long-term investor who little cares about short term
fluctuations but if you were someone who wanted to try TA I would think you
would do better with an individual stock that has shown a tendency in the
past to trend as it's reputation among investors rises and falls or, at
least, an index fund that tracks a whole market or sector that has shown
'trendyness' in the past.

To just tell people to sell or buy when an NAV has gone under or over a MA
is irresponsible. You can look into the past and find lots of expamples
that would support just about any case. Whether or not to buy or sell
depends on many more things than any TA indicators, especially if they are
being misapplied or calculated incorrectly.

-herb

PS: Wasn't it Kenny Rogers and it's 'know when to hold'em, know when to
fold'em...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:28 am

Guest

"-herb" <xxx@yyy.com> wrote

Quote:

I would think you would do better with an individual stock that has shown
a tendency in the past to trend as it's reputation among investors rises
and falls or, at least, an index fund that tracks a whole market or sector
that has shown 'trendyness' in the past.

I think you would do better if you avoided talking about things you don't
understand.

-herb

Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:28 am

Guest

"David" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
news:e0b0a255-344b-461b-8a43-85944afe042e@79g2000hsk.googlegroups.com...
On Aug 7, 5:14 am, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

Quote:

"ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote in message

news:kItmk.9308$vn7.3530@flpi147.ffdc.sbc.com...

[snip]

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=

It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the
EMA200 is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

If I were interested in applying TA to mutual funds, I would look for a
fund
that uses TA. You can't analyze an NAV as if it were a price determined in
a free market. A mutual fund NAV reflects the effects of the management as
well as the price action of the basket of securities that make it up. At
the end of 200 days the fund's composition is probably different from the
first day. What is this EMA200 measuring?

-herb

You are still thinking fundamentally, Herb. It doesn't matter why the
NAV is going up or down. If it's going down, it's going down and it
will hit you in the wallet whether you understand it or not, whether
it is due to world events, fund management incompetence, a bubble
bursting or whatever. The effect is the same and as the Johnny Cash
song said you have to know when to fold 'em, know when to run!

David

David:

When you say "it's going down" you are implying that it is trending. Some
things do indeed exhibit this trending: trendy stocks and possibly, the
market as a whole but you can't just say that about all mutual funds. Many
just fluctuate about the trendline.

Didn't you recently admit that you don't know how to graph NAVs net of
dividneds? Do you really sell every time significant capital gains are
distributed? "If it's going down..."

As you know, I am a long-term investor who little cares about short term
fluctuations but if you were someone who wanted to try TA I would think you
would do better with an individual stock that has shown a tendency in the
past to trend as it's reputation among investors rises and falls or, at
least, an index fund that tracks a whole market or sector that has shown
'trendyness' in the past.

To just tell people to sell or buy when an NAV has gone under or over a MA
is irresponsible. You can look into the past and find lots of expamples
that would support just about any case. Whether or not to buy or sell
depends on many more things than any TA indicators, especially if they are
being misapplied or calculated incorrectly.

-herb

PS: Wasn't it Kenny Rogers and it's 'know when to hold'em, know when to
fold'em...

-herb

Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:47 pm

Guest

"David" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
news:16d29c6c-4a9d-486d-9df1-cbe69150032f@b38g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
On Aug 7, 9:49 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

Quote:

"David" <da...@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message

news:e0b0a255-344b-461b-8a43-85944afe042e@79g2000hsk.googlegroups.com...
On Aug 7, 5:14 am, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:

"ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote in message

news:kItmk.9308$vn7.3530@flpi147.ffdc.sbc.com...

[snip]

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=

It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the
EMA200 is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

If I were interested in applying TA to mutual funds, I would look for a
fund
that uses TA. You can't analyze an NAV as if it were a price determined
in
a free market. A mutual fund NAV reflects the effects of the management
as
well as the price action of the basket of securities that make it up. At
the end of 200 days the fund's composition is probably different from
the
first day. What is this EMA200 measuring?

-herb

You are still thinking fundamentally, Herb. It doesn't matter why the
NAV is going up or down. If it's going down, it's going down and it
will hit you in the wallet whether you understand it or not, whether
it is due to world events, fund management incompetence, a bubble
bursting or whatever. The effect is the same and as the Johnny Cash
song said you have to know when to fold 'em, know when to run!

David

David:

When you say "it's going down" you are implying that it is trending. Some
things do indeed exhibit this trending: trendy stocks and possibly, the
market as a whole but you can't just say that about all mutual funds. Many
just fluctuate about the trendline.

Didn't you recently admit that you don't know how to graph NAVs net of
dividneds? Do you really sell every time significant capital gains are
distributed? "If it's going down..."

As you know, I am a long-term investor who little cares about short term
fluctuations but if you were someone who wanted to try TA I would think
you
would do better with an individual stock that has shown a tendency in the
past to trend as it's reputation among investors rises and falls or, at
least, an index fund that tracks a whole market or sector that has shown
'trendyness' in the past.

To just tell people to sell or buy when an NAV has gone under or over a MA
is irresponsible. You can look into the past and find lots of expamples
that would support just about any case. Whether or not to buy or sell
depends on many more things than any TA indicators, especially if they are
being misapplied or calculated incorrectly.

-herb

PS: Wasn't it Kenny Rogers and it's 'know when to hold'em, know when to
fold'em...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes, Kenny Rogers. "Know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know
when to walk away. Know when to run" .

or, in Market-speak. "Let your winners run, but cut your losses, cut
your losses, cut your losses". Kenny says it better!

We don't have fund distributions in the UK, just fairly small
dividends that you can take out or reinvest, so I don't know what size
the distributions are in the USA. Capital gains in the UK just
increase the fund price and the individual fund investor may have to
pay Capital Gains tax on his gains when he sells. I suspect few US
distributions are as much as the 14.5% under discussion. TA is
generally held to apply to US mutual funds by numerous US authors, who
I won't quote unless you insist. Anyway, my feeling is that most funds
track the market fairly closely whether they are trackers or not. With
a hundred or more investments in each they can't help but be
diversified enough to be closet trackers in most cases. As the S&P500
goes up and down then so do they. So also do UK, European and Far East
funds from my observation of them. They are all quite closely
correlated, not exactly but quite closely.

So yes, you can apply TA to funds as well as to stocks, commodities or
anything else that is freely traded. And, yes, they do spend a fair
bit of time in trading ranges rather than trending so you need a
trading system a bit more complex than just buy and sell when the
price crosses the MA or you can get whipsawed to death. I could
recommend some books to you but I know you won't read them, so I have
just given you a very simple rule that is a lot better than nothing,
aka B&H.

David

David:

It doesn't convince me that people who make their living selling books to
people like you who can be convinced that they have discerned some secret
that the rest of the market doesn't know and won't act upon. I can put you
in touch with authors who claim that you can lose 30 pounds in a week
without dieting.

The fact is that some professional money managers do very well using TA
while stories abound of others who led their investors into disaster.
Studies show that the average mutual fund investor hurts his/her performance
by any attempt to time the market.

We have informercials here selling software systems that they claim make
average traders into money makers by following simple buy and sell signals.
They are replete with testimonials from 'real' investors who quit their day
jobs to trade full time for big money. Snake oil, all of it.

Whether or not a fund tracks the S&P can be easily determined by examining
its R-squared and Beta. I have lots of funds (Select Gold, eg) that don't
even try.

I have a feeling that what we call mutual funds and what you call mutual
funds across the pond are different animals. I find it hard to believe that
in the UK, a place that makes Massachusetts look like a tax haven, your
funds can realize capital gains without paying any taxes. That would be
sweet. Here, they have to pass those gains through to avoid tax. Huge
distributions can be rare but they can come in bunches when the whole market
has been doing well. Recently, Fidelity Magellan which does tend to track
the S&P paid something like 30% in a change in strategy.

It sounds like you do agree that there is a danger of being whipsawed in and
out by short-term fluctuations. Many funds here have implemented policies
to make it expensive (or impossible) to trade in and out too often.

Mutual funds are for long-term investment. If your time horizons are less
than 7 years or so, you really should consider something less volatile.

-herb

Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:47 pm

Guest

"-herb" <xxx@yyy.com> wrote

More crap. Can't you go finda boyfriend or something?

Flasherly

Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:04 pm

Guest

On Aug 6, 11:11 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:

Quote:

David wrote:
On Aug 6, 3:53 pm, "ps56k" <pschuman_no_spam...@interserv.com> wrote:
Saw this on the PBS Nightly Biz Report - Heartland Value Plus -
HRVIXhttp://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=hrvix&nav=searchbox

It is actually showing positve gains,
while the rest of the Small Cap group is negative.

HRVIX is only showing positive gains YTD because it dropped by 17%,
from 28 to 23.2, in one day at the end of last december! Have you
looked at the one-year chart? Then it dropped down to 20.3 over the
next couple of weeks. That's down 27.5% in about two weeks! What was
that due to? Since then it has climbed back to just below 25, but the
200-Day SMA has been going down since last November. Looks like one to
avoid unless you like a gamble, have nerves of steel and are feeling
lucky.

I'm currently holding TRowe PRNHX - and was just comparing
-http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/?symbol=prnhx&nav=searchbox

-
PRNHX? Where do you find these funds! It peaked at 37.5 last October

you mean like the rest of the entire market and financial world

and it has been downhill all the way ever since. It is now at 28, down
25% from the peak, and below a declining MA200, so one would hope you
had sold out long ago. You should have sold in November at 34.7 when
it dropped below the MA200. When it starts to go down it is time to
bail out!

I guess you treat mutual funds like daily ETFs or stocks - I don't -http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PRNHX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200&a=&c=

It would be nice to have some mechanism to monitor and alert when the EMA200
is bridged -
wonder what and how you do it daily ?

Stop limit losses or buys are good for the longest I've heard, 6
months -- Ameritrade, whereas Scottrade puts a 3 month window on
them. IOW - daily you can conceivably go into a position with the
appropriate percentiles as a function of monitoring the position at
some set point (ticks) for an alert event or action buy/sell. In
practice, traders work commonly at 8-15%, sometimes 20% of losses
incurred for leveraged play -into- a buy event, and something higher
for holdings on profit sell-point event. For instance USO oil today
is around that, if working off 20% 2-week losses at below both it's
estimated/moving averages for either 50-, 100-, and possibly
approaching the 200-day period. Were a margin order note for a buy
active and held through the broker at 20% off for USO, at at point
instituted for 20% prior to two weeks as of today today, it's now
going to trigger itself for whatever amount that buy event was
initially set. So much jiggling, and no more effective than loose
talk until the $7 margin trade event actually occurs for a recorded
IRS tax event. Nevertheless that 20% example isn't written in stone
and it's the right of the trader to change it is often as he or her
sees fit. Until then, go either way with it for active holdings on a
sell high/low or for buying into exposure at some low;-- a key
percentile, if set too high -- won't mean squat's happening, as
effective as being in a conventional fund with 4 instances of in-out
yearly limits before the frequent trader is a discriminable applet;--
as opposed to too low percentiles, when it's all happens too fast for
anything other than similarly generating market noise by being in too
volatile positions on $7 "token" trades that aren't effectively set
either way for practical intent.

David

Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:16 pm

Guest

On Aug 8, 8:19 pm, "Ed" <fri...@frishinthe.net> wrote:

Quote:

"-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote

More crap. Can't you go finda boyfriend or something?

To add to Ed's comment, a nice quote I just read:

"If the 200 period (day) moving average is up, generally it shows that
institutions are buying the market. If the 200 period moving average
is down, usually it shows that the institutions are selling the
market. Given those facts, why argue with a gorilla? Only if you want
to lose!"

Steven L.

Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:49 am

Guest

-herb wrote:

Quote:

Didn't you recently admit that you don't know how to graph NAVs net of
dividneds? Do you really sell every time significant capital gains are
distributed? "If it's going down..."

This is one feature I have always liked about the newsletter Growth Fund
Guide. In their own charts and graphs of fund performance, they adjust
the NAVs downward by any dividends or capital gains distributions, on
the assumption that most investors reinvest these in shares of the fund.
Thus you can always see and analyze the true trend on the total value
of an investment--even if the fund did a share split.

Morningstar gives you charts of the growth of a $10,000 investment too
(taking into account NAV, capital gains and dividend distributions).
Unfortunately they don't expose the data, so you can't do your own
technical analysis on them.

Quote:

To just tell people to sell or buy when an NAV has gone under or over a MA
is irresponsible. You can look into the past and find lots of expamples
that would support just about any case.

Fabian's investment strategy comes close to this: He just sells when a
fund drops below its 39 week MA and buys when it rises above its 39 week
MA. And we had a chance to see how well that worked in the 2000-2002
bear market. Fabian got whipsawed badly by bear market rallies.

A quick check of the S&P 500 average over the last 5 years shows that
you would have gotten whipsawed repeatedly with a pure 200 day MA test.
Interestingly, a 400 day MA test would have caused far fewer whipsaws,
as far as I can tell. But you would have gotten in a bull market fairly
late and bailed out fairly late as well. (You would have missed the 18%
rise in 2003 that signaled the start of a new bull market. And you
would not have bailed out of the current bear market till the start of
2008, after the debacles in the financial sector were already taking
their toll.)

--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

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