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Finance & Stock Groups Forum Index » Financial Planning » uncertain about my Fidelity IRA and the economy
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| Larz |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:11 pm |
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Guest
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I have been somewhat nervous about the economy. I feel that if the
Iraq war does not end soon, or that the US attacks Iran, the economy
may get very bad.
I also have watched some conspiracy stuff on how the federal reserve
is actually controlled by the Rothschild family and how Milton
Friedman had said that the Federal Reserve caused the great depression
and could have prevented it. This seems somewhat chocking, but I have
seen a video of Friedman saying that, and although I may not agree
with all of his economic ideas, I think there may be something to that
assertion of his and others. Bernanke had apparently agreed with what
Friedman had said and acted as if it was all a mistake and part of a
learning process, though in reality it seems like the Fed in the end
is going to protect certain Wall street entities and not the middle
class type investor.
The guy at Fidelity Investments discouraged me from moving my IRA
into FDIC CD's. He recommended a managed portfolio type account that
he says has become popular, maybe it was PAS or something. I am
considering putting a large chunk in that to see how it does. He also
said that investments are covered with SIPC, but I see that that is a
private insurance. With FDIC, I guess the govt can print money if it
had to, though that would devalue what you get anyway. He also gave
the usual argument that moving to CD's you will get low yields and
all, but I think if I hear much more bad economic news I may be
prepared to move into CD's,
I am somewhat conflicted on this and am afraid that my gut feeling of
moving alot of my assets into CD's may be the thing to do, but the
recommendation not to leaves me a bit uncertain of what I should do.
He also had said that the S&L crisis in the 80's caused alot of
people to think it was the end of the world. I have heard stuff like
that on the radio, one guy claiming that the 70's was worst than the
depression, but that seems wrong because the depression was a greater
hardship for the common man. It seems like economists measure the
economy based on how a large corporation would view things and not the
average person trying to live a life free from stress and hardships.
That leaves me feeling frustrated with many economists, and if you
listen to The Electric Politics podcast on the internet, they have an
episode that argues that economics has become some high ended
mathematical modeling approach that is actually disconnected from the
real world to a large extent.
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| rick++ |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:49 pm |
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When in doubt, go 50% CDs and 50% what you have now.
I would bet five years from now your CD half will be way
behind your other half. But peace of mind may be worth
something.
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| Rich Carreiro |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:49 pm |
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Larz <wbsurfver@gmail.com> writes:
Quote: Friedman had said that the Federal Reserve caused the great depression
and could have prevented it. This seems somewhat chocking, but I have
seen a video of Friedman saying that, and although I may not agree
with all of his economic ideas, I think there may be something to that
assertion of his and others.
That's no big secret. It is broadly accepted macroeconomics that the
Depression-era Fed really bleeped it up by persuing contractionary
policies. Which is a far cry from saying that the Depression-era Fed
wanted to cause/prolong the Depression. Only the tinfoil hat crowd
believes that.
The modern Fed (and Bernanke, whose PhD thesis was all about what went
wrong in the Depression) have learned from that mistake, which is why
the Fed is currently turning on all the liquidity taps as fast and
hard as it can (which of course has its own set of negatives to watch
out for).
--
Rich Carreiro rlc-news@rlcarr.com
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| kastnna |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:49 pm |
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Larz,
Aside from a lot of speculation, all you told us is that you are
thinking of "selling low" and investing in "safe" (read: no growth)
investments. "The guy at Fidelity" recommended against this.
Some important questions:
How old are you?
When do you plan to retire?
How much money do you have invested?
How much do you plan on needing in retirement?
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| Michael |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:49 pm |
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On 2008-07-24 04:11:10 -0500, Larz <wbsurfver@gmail.com> said:
Larz, I have to say I share your concern. I watch my IRA plummet and
consider taking similar action as you described. As of now I am opting
for sitting on the sidelines debilitated by fear. My advisor keeps
saying to me that as long as you own, or lend to, quality companies
this is the best course of action. Truth is, I don't think anyone has a
clue as to how this problem economy will resolve itself.
Michael
Quote:
The guy at Fidelity Investments discouraged me from moving my IRA
into FDIC CD's.
I am somewhat conflicted on this and am afraid that my gut feeling of
moving alot of my assets into CD's may be the thing to do, but the
recommendation not to leaves me a bit uncertain of what I should do.
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| kastnna |
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:45 pm |
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On Jul 24, 10:26 am, Michael <gen...@verizon.net> wrote:
Quote: Truth is, I don't think anyone has a clue as to how this problem economy will resolve itself.
I think you're right Michael, but if no one has a clue, selling could
be as incorrect as holding could be.
Even if the doomsdayers are correct and the market does fall, how will
we know when the decline is over? The Dow has climbed almost 700
points in the past week. How far does it have to climb before we
decide the worst is behind us and it's time to reinvest? It's also
back down 150 points right now. Is this a one day "fluke" in our climb
to the top or is this further evidence of a downfall?
If you are investing for the long term, and don't anticipate needing
the money in the near future, the average investor (me included) has
historically experienced much more success by "sitting tight".
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| anoop |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:02 am |
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On Jul 24, 2:11 am, Larz <wbsurf...@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: I have been somewhat nervous about the economy.
Me too, especially with all the financial blogs that I read.
Here's an interesting article on the state of things...
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=11751139
I think things are going to get worse before they get better
so I have moved most of my savings out of the market.
I intend to get back after I stop seeing so much negativity
in the media, even if that means missing out on some gains.
Quote: The guy at Fidelity Investments discouraged me from moving my IRA
into FDIC CD's. He recommended a managed portfolio type account that
he says has become popular, maybe it was PAS or something.
Were they able to show you any numbers on how PAS has done for
the last few years for an account with your investment objectives?
Anoop
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| Will Trice |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:12 am |
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anoop wrote:
Quote: I think things are going to get worse before they get better
so I have moved most of my savings out of the market.
I intend to get back after I stop seeing so much negativity
in the media, even if that means missing out on some gains.
I'm sure you know this, but the frequency and mood of the media tends to
be a contrarian indicator. Buffett said something to the effect of, "Be
fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Along those lines, Suze Orman recently decided that straight indexing in
an S&P 500 index fund is no longer correct for investors, but that they
should turn to active management through ETFs (not that I give much
credence to Orman). An editor's note I read said the same thing about
Burton Malkiel (although I cannot locate a source that quotes him).
Does this mean that we should all be piling into S&P 500 index funds?
-Will
william dot trice at ngc dot com
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| anoop |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:44 am |
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On Jul 24, 5:12 pm, Will Trice <wtr...@notmonitored.com> wrote:
Quote: I'm sure you know this, but the frequency and mood of the media tends to
be a contrarian indicator. Buffett said something to the effect of, "Be
fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Well, I got fearful back in 2004 and didn't buy a house.
http://tinyurl.com/62sosz
I decided to live with the risk of being "priced out" rather than
being chained
to a mortgage I could barely afford at the time. I continue to be
fearful now because of all the numbers I'm seeing on the financial
blogs. The financial system doesn't look healthy and the govt
seems to be sending out ambulances on a daily basis.
Quote: Along those lines, Suze Orman recently decided that straight indexing in
an S&P 500 index fund is no longer correct for investors, but that they
should turn to active management through ETFs (not that I give much
credence to Orman). An editor's note I read said the same thing about
Burton Malkiel (although I cannot locate a source that quotes him).
Does this mean that we should all be piling into S&P 500 index funds?
Several banks are on the watch list for going bust and earnings
projections from several companies aren't looking good.
Anoop
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| joetaxpayer |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:23 pm |
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kastnna wrote:
Quote: On Jul 24, 7:44 pm, anoop <ghanw...@gmail.com> wrote:
Well, I got fearful back in 2004 and didn't buy a house.http://tinyurl.com/62sosz
I decided to live with the risk of being "priced out" rather than
being chained
to a mortgage I could barely afford at the time.
Congrats on your good fortune inre your housing decision.
I'm not as quick to find that non-purchase so fortunate.
Zillow shows prices (US, I know every city is dramatically different) up
about 30% over that past 5 years, still. Right now, we are back to
mid-2005 price levels.
What's curious though, is that 2004 saw a wild swing in interest rates
for mortgages, ranging 5.5-6.5%. I got a 15 yr fixed, 5.24% at the low
of 03, and right now, the 30yr fixed appears to be running 6-3/4.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course, and location is everything. In 2004, you
bought in the right city and caught a good rate, you are happy today.
Wrong city, and a subprime mortgage, you're in foreclosure.
(FWIW, my town didn't see the same bubble. In 5 yrs, we peaked at about
a 15% gain, vs US about 41%. We are still up 4.1%, vs US 30%)
Joe
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| kastnna |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:23 pm |
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On Jul 24, 7:12 pm, Will Trice <wtr...@notmonitored.com> wrote:
Quote: Along those lines, Suze Orman recently decided that straight indexing in
an S&P 500 index fund is no longer correct for investors, but that they
should turn to active management through ETFs (not that I give much
credence to Orman). An editor's note I read said the same thing about
Burton Malkiel (although I cannot locate a source that quotes him).
Does this mean that we should all be piling into S&P 500 index funds?
Will, pardon my ignorance, but could you please expound on this. ETFs
are passive index trackers by nature. What does Orman mean by "active
management through ETFs"? Is she simply stating that indices other
than the S&P should be held (EFA, RWR, IWO, etc...)? Is she saying
they should be actively bought and sold or does she consider having
more than just the S&P make the portfolio "active" in and of itself?
Thanks. I don't listen to Orman, so this is news to me.
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| kastnna |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:23 pm |
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On Jul 24, 7:44 pm, anoop <ghanw...@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: Well, I got fearful back in 2004 and didn't buy a house.http://tinyurl.com/62sosz
I decided to live with the risk of being "priced out" rather than
being chained
to a mortgage I could barely afford at the time. I continue to be
fearful now because of all the numbers I'm seeing on the financial
blogs. The financial system doesn't look healthy and the govt
seems to be sending out ambulances on a daily basis.
Congrats on your good fortune inre your housing decision. However,
Will is correct that history has repeatedly suggested that when the
general investing public thinks one thing, it's usually profitable to
do the opposite. The housing story is purely anecdotal. I believe the
phrase is "even a blind hog finds a nut from time to time". Then
again, I could be mistaken. Perhaps you have never been wrong about a
financial forecast. But even Buffett can't make that claim.
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| Guest |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:23 pm |
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Will Trice <wtrice@notmonitored.com> writes:
Quote: Along those lines, Suze Orman recently decided that straight
indexing in an S&P 500 index fund is no longer correct for
investors, but that they should turn to active management through
ETFs (not that I give much credence to Orman). An editor's note I
read said the same thing about Burton Malkiel (although I cannot
Malkiel always was in favor of the broadest index possible.
When he first wrote Random Walk, it was very hard to
implement his plan. As index funds came available he
was quick to move to broader indices - first the S&P 500,
and later a total market index fund.
The first edition of his book came out in '73 - there
were no money market funds, no NOW accounts, no index
funds at all.
Quote: From the '96 sixth edition:
Shortly after my book was published, the "index-fund"
idea caught on. At first, only large pension clients
were offered this investment opportunity. ...
In 1976, a fund was created [ the Vanguard S&P 500
index fund]...
But now, as one of the earliest supporters of the
500-Stock Index, I want to alter my advice...
I now believe the best general U.S. index to emulate
is the broader Wilsher 5000 Stock Index -- not the
S&P 500.
He simply recommends these indices as a vehicle for
achieving the broad diversification and low costs which
are his real goals. I suspect that the most recent
update of his book (my copy is that '96) bring in ETFs,
expand the international scope of diversification, etc.
FWIW.
--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting
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| Douglas Johnson |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:23 pm |
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anoop <ghanwani@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: I think things are going to get worse before they get better
So do I, for what that's worth. I also think most of the downside is behind us
and it will be a long slow recovery.
Quote: so I have moved most of my savings out of the market.
I intend to get back after I stop seeing so much negativity
in the media, even if that means missing out on some gains.
The good old sell low, buy high strategy. Seriously, I really, really
understand how hard it is to see your portfolio going down day after day. But
selling is a symptom of a problem. Either your investments are too risky for
your risk tolerance or you are paying too much attention to the short term news.
Certainly, if you not sleeping at night, you need to take some volatility out of
your portfolio. If you need some or all of the money before you think things
will recover, you need to move it to less risky investments.
But both of these should be fairly long term changes in your asset allocation,
not just temporary until the media starts cheerleading the market again.
Too much reading of investment news leads to the herd mentality (sell low, buy
high). If you are going to actively manage your investments, you need to go
against the herd. Buy low, sell high means you have to buy when everyone else
is selling and sell when everyone else is buying.
-- Doug
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| kastnna |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:45 pm |
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On Jul 25, 11:24 am, Ron Peterson <r...@shell.core.com> wrote:
Quote: A person may want to be overweight in some sectors such as energy or
alternative energy and ETFs give an investor to make the right
balance.
--
Ron
Thanks. I am a big proponent of ETFs. 12 of them comprise my entire
portfolio.
The idea is that a handful of ETFs can cover almost the entire market
and therefore get very close to the efficient frontier described in
Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory. However, I almost never buy and
sell other than to rebalance and change risk tolerance as I age, so
it's hard for me to consider that "active". I guess jumping in and out
of sector ETFs is assuredly "active", however.
[Short plug on passive investing: using the diversified ETF portfolio
mentioned above (beta = 0.95) I have consistently outperformed the S&P
and Wilshire 5000 in every year since creating the portfolio (5 years
ago). I am also down 3.5% LESS than the S&P currently is this year. I
don't credit my financial prowess in the slightest. A passive, low
cost, rebalanced, diversified portfolio gets all the credit for this
one.]
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| kastnna |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:45 pm |
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On Jul 25, 10:18 am, joetaxpayer <joetaxpa...@nospam.com> wrote:
Quote: I'm not as quick to find that non-purchase so fortunate.
Zillow shows prices (US, I know every city is dramatically different) up
about 30% over that past 5 years, still. Right now, we are back to
mid-2005 price levels.
What's curious though, is that 2004 saw a wild swing in interest rates
for mortgages, ranging 5.5-6.5%. I got a 15 yr fixed, 5.24% at the low
of 03, and right now, the 30yr fixed appears to be running 6-3/4.
I was just taking the OPs statement at face value. Thanks for the
additional data. It only helps to reinforce the point we (you
included, I believe) were making.
Quote: (FWIW, my town didn't see the same bubble. In 5 yrs, we peaked at about
a 15% gain, vs US about 41%. We are still up 4.1%, vs US 30%)
Joe
Also FWIW, my town didn't see the bubble either. Avg time on market
lengthened, but prices didn't drop.
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| Ron Peterson |
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:45 pm |
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On Jul 25, 8:23 am, kastnna <kast...@auburnalum.org> wrote:
Quote: On Jul 24, 7:12 pm, Will Trice <wtr...@notmonitored.com> wrote:
Along those lines, Suze Orman recently decided that straight indexing in
an S&P 500 index fund is no longer correct for investors, but that they
should turn to active management through ETFs (not that I give much
credence to Orman). An editor's note I read said the same thing about
Burton Malkiel (although I cannot locate a source that quotes him).
Does this mean that we should all be piling into S&P 500 index funds?
The Wilshire 5000 is a broader index and would be preferable for
reducing risk. But we should also have some foreign stock exposure, so
we need some ETFs to cover the rest of the world.
Quote: Will, pardon my ignorance, but could you please expound on this. ETFs
are passive index trackers by nature. What does Orman mean by "active
management through ETFs"? Is she simply stating that indices other
than the S&P should be held (EFA, RWR, IWO, etc...)? Is she saying
they should be actively bought and sold or does she consider having
more than just the S&P make the portfolio "active" in and of itself?
A person may want to be overweight in some sectors such as energy or
alternative energy and ETFs give an investor to make the right
balance.
--
Ron
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| Will Trice |
Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 12:42 am |
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anoop wrote:
Quote: Well, I got fearful back in 2004 and didn't buy a house.
http://tinyurl.com/62sosz
I decided to live with the risk of being "priced out" rather than
being chained
to a mortgage I could barely afford at the time.
Are you any better off in affording that mortgage you would have had
today? If so, would you have to sell today? Are you in the position to
buy today? Had the house you want to buy declined in value since 2004?
The answer would have to be "yes" to all these questions for your
decision to be a good one based on timing.
Quote: Several banks are on the watch list for going bust and earnings
projections from several companies aren't looking good.
A spokesperson from the FDIC said on CNBC this week that on average 10%
of banks are on the watch list at any one time. And at any time you can
find several companies with crappy earnings projections.
-Will
william dot trice at ngc dot com
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| Will Trice |
Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 12:46 am |
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joetaxpayer wrote:
Quote: (FWIW, my town didn't see the same bubble. In 5 yrs, we peaked at about
a 15% gain, vs US about 41%. We are still up 4.1%, vs US 30%)
Yep, for us it was a peak of about 9%. A recent appraisal puts us just
a little above break-even over the last 5 years.
-Will
william dot trice at ngc dot com
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| Will Trice |
Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 12:55 am |
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kastnna wrote:
Quote: Will, pardon my ignorance, but could you please expound on this. ETFs
are passive index trackers by nature. What does Orman mean by "active
management through ETFs"? Is she simply stating that indices other
than the S&P should be held (EFA, RWR, IWO, etc...)? Is she saying
they should be actively bought and sold or does she consider having
more than just the S&P make the portfolio "active" in and of itself?
Thanks. I don't listen to Orman, so this is news to me.
I don't listen to her either, it was the Malkiel comment that grabbed my
attention. Orman is saying that ETFs should be actively bought and
sold, "I think in this economy you need to manage your money more
actively."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/19/pf/Suze_Orman.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_latest
An editor's note I read referenced this article and lumped Malkiel in
with Orman, but the only actual quotes I can find from Malkiel are along
the lines of Bread's post concerning the use of more index funds to get
broader exposure.
-Will
william dot trice at ngc dot com
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Misc.invest.financial-plan is a moderated newsgroup where Moderators strive
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guidelines include a request for brevity and another for trimming posts to
which we respond. For all of the other tips and suggestions, see "FROM THE
MODERATORS: Posting to misc.invest.financial-plan", a weekly post now on the
Newsgroup. |
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