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Marcus Aurelius
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 1:06 pm
Guest
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.
Uncle_vito
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:00 pm
Guest
Spoken by a bagholder who just missed out on a great runup. Ever hear of
Santa Claus rally? Also, if I can remember correctly, Thanksgiving week has
typically been good for stocks. I don't care if it is a bottom. Gains is
gains. $$$.

What is the quote? Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat
it. That goes for good stuff too. Hope it continues to repeat.

Vito


"Marcus Aurelius" <alexander26a@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:4b3a1b16-4d30-4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772eae@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...
Quote:
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.
John Galt
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:15 pm
Guest
Uncle_vito wrote:
Quote:
Spoken by a bagholder who just missed out on a great runup. Ever hear of
Santa Claus rally? Also, if I can remember correctly, Thanksgiving week has
typically been good for stocks. I don't care if it is a bottom. Gains is
gains. $$$.

What is the quote? Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat
it. That goes for good stuff too. Hope it continues to repeat.

Vito

All bear market rallies are sucker's rallies -- until the one that's not.

JG


Quote:


"Marcus Aurelius" <alexander26a@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:4b3a1b16-4d30-4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772eae@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.

Tony
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:02 pm
Guest
True bear markets unlike the one in 1987 end in no volume or diminishing
volume where the volume figures take that last sharp drop then the volume
trudges along the bottom. This bear market bottom could be as far out as
2012.

Marcus Aurelius wrote:

Quote:
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.

--
The Grandmaster of the CyberFROG

Come get your ticket to CyberFROG city

Nay, Art thou decideth playeth ye simpleton games. *Some* of us know
proper manners

Very few. I used to take calls from *rank* noobs,

Hamster isn't a newsreader it's a mistake!

El-Gonzo Jackson FROGS both me and Chuckcar

Master Juba was a black man imitating a white man imitating a black man

Using my technical prowess and computer abilities to answer questions
beyond the realm of understandability

Regards Tony... Making usenet better for everyone everyday
Uncle_vito
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:03 pm
Guest
We shall see. Place your bets folks.

Happy turkey day. My smoked turkey is at 155 degrees. Only needs to get to
170 and I can have at it.

Dang, I am talking about my turkey as if it were a stock. I need a drink.

Happy turkey day to all. Do not worry about the market. You can see my
point when you realize that it is only money. Be thankful for your health.
How many truely sick people would gladly give all their wealth to be healthy
again.

Then there is Buffethater.....

Vito


"Tony" <Tony@TheDeli.Sandwich> wrote in message
news:492EB6F7.E4782CB2@TheDeli.Sandwich...
Quote:
My guess is the rally will take the DJIA to 9640 from there the typical
three day runup at the start of January next year then the real bear will
grip the market taking the DJIA down to the 5,800 area.

Marcus Aurelius wrote:

The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.

--
The Grandmaster of the CyberFROG

Come get your ticket to CyberFROG city

Nay, Art thou decideth playeth ye simpleton games. *Some* of us know
proper manners

Very few. I used to take calls from *rank* noobs,

Hamster isn't a newsreader it's a mistake!

El-Gonzo Jackson FROGS both me and Chuckcar

Master Juba was a black man imitating a white man imitating a black man

Using my technical prowess and computer abilities to answer questions
beyond the realm of understandability

Regards Tony... Making usenet better for everyone everyday

Tony
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:03 pm
Guest
My guess is the rally will take the DJIA to 9640 from there the typical
three day runup at the start of January next year then the real bear will
grip the market taking the DJIA down to the 5,800 area.

Marcus Aurelius wrote:

Quote:
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.

--
The Grandmaster of the CyberFROG

Come get your ticket to CyberFROG city

Nay, Art thou decideth playeth ye simpleton games. *Some* of us know
proper manners

Very few. I used to take calls from *rank* noobs,

Hamster isn't a newsreader it's a mistake!

El-Gonzo Jackson FROGS both me and Chuckcar

Master Juba was a black man imitating a white man imitating a black man

Using my technical prowess and computer abilities to answer questions
beyond the realm of understandability

Regards Tony... Making usenet better for everyone everyday
phil scott
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:49 pm
Guest
On Nov 27, 5:06 am, Marcus Aurelius <alexander...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.


thats close imo...but no telling with the PPT involved...

re the 'bottom'..when it hits 2500 on the dow I will believe we hit
bottom, that is with bread at its current prices....

if bread doubles, then of course the bottom is higher 5,000 or so...
funny money and all that... fools a lot of people, especially
investors.





Phil scott
phil scott
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:52 pm
Guest
On Nov 27, 6:00 am, "Uncle_vito" <uncle_vito2...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Quote:
Spoken by a bagholder who just missed out on a great runup.  Ever hear of
Santa Claus rally?  Also, if I can remember correctly, Thanksgiving week has
typically been good for stocks.   I don't care if it is  a bottom.  Gains is
gains.  $$$.

What is the quote?   Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat
it.  That goes for good stuff too.  Hope it continues to repeat.

Vito

"Marcus Aurelius" <alexander...@hotmail.com> wrote in message

news:4b3a1b16-4d30-4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772eae@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...



The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

the recent upticks are not generally accessed by individual stocks
since each is on its own trajectory.... but yes, funds and the index
see an up tic... minus your fees and taxes.

is it worth the risk for a person to jump on the upticks? ymmv.


Tell that who finished loosing it all in 1933. that will be
repeating shortly.



Phil scott
ausound
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 3:03 am
Guest
Marcus Aurelius <alexander26a@hotmail.com> wrote in news:4b3a1b16-4d30-
4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772eae@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com:

Quote:
The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.


spot on opinion
your perspective lends additional dimension to my own views

DJI to 6100 or thereabouts
Nasdaq to 1200 or thereabouts
s&p500 to as low as 600, I would tend to interpret to 725

after the post 911 rally
the general market consolodated and formed a double bottom in mid2002 &
early2003
after which we enjoyed Cheany's 5 yr bull market

the DJI's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 10 year moving
average

the S&P500's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 15 year moving
average

and the Nasdaq's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 20 year moving
average

all three of those Indexes have fallen through those previously
established support lines

all of those indexes have fallen below the point where terrorists chose
to attack in an attempt to inflict a mortal blow to capitalism at the
moment of perceived economic weakness.
ausound
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 3:15 am
Guest
"Uncle_vito" <uncle_vito2002@yahoo.com> wrote in
news:kOGdnSYZG_HMcLPUnZ2dnUVZ_qTinZ2d@linkline.com:

Quote:
How many truely sick people would gladly give all their wealth to be
healthy again.

Then there is Buffethater.....


---------- BADDA-BING! ! -------

------------ RIMSHOT ! -----
Guest
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 10:57 am
the real suckers are the ones who pull out their money AFTER the stock
market has corrected because they listened to the chicken littles who
have a devious motive for their constant scare mongering.

DISOBEY !
Rich Uncle
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 12:57 pm
Guest
Wouldn't you say the moving average indicators tend to be
too late after-the-fact indicators?

=============================================On Nov 28, 6:03 am, ausound <auso...@spambog.com> wrote:
Quote:

spot on opinion
your perspective lends additional dimension to my own views

DJI to 6100 or thereabouts
Nasdaq to 1200 or thereabouts
s&p500 to as low as 600, I would tend to interpret to 725

after the post 911 rally
the general market consolodated and formed a double bottom in mid2002 &
early2003
after which we enjoyed Cheany's 5 yr bull market

the DJI's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 10 year moving
average

the S&P500's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 15 year moving
average

and the Nasdaq's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 20 year moving
average

all three of those Indexes have fallen through those previously
established support lines

all of those indexes have fallen below the point where terrorists chose
to attack in an attempt to inflict a mortal blow to capitalism at the
moment of perceived economic weakness.
========================================================> Marcus Aurelius <alexander...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:4b3a1b16-4d30-
4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772...@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com:

The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.
Rich Uncle
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:57 pm
Guest
I think you're right, but to many people, it's a real dilemma:-

Year 2008 DJIA 8000 Stock price $80 No. of shares owned
1,000 Debts $20,000 Net fortune $60,000

Positive outcome scenario -
Year 2011 DJIA 32000 Stock price $320 No. of shares owned 1,000
Debts $20,000 Net fortune $300,000

Depression outcome scenario -
Year 2011 DJIA 2000 Stock price $20 No. of shares owned
1,000 Debts $20,000 Net fortune $0

=====================================================On Nov 28, 1:57 pm, com...@webtv.net wrote:
Quote:
the real suckers are the ones who pull out their money AFTER the stock
market has corrected because they listened to the chicken littles who
have a devious motive for their constant scare mongering.

  DISOBEY !
Uncle_vito
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 8:02 pm
Guest
Everybody is telling us how it was during the great depression. Well how
many of you were alive then to give us first hand experience. If you were
alive, you were likely 10 years old or less.

I get tired of hearing referenses to that period. All depressions are
different.

Except for those folks that bought their houses in the last 5 years or so,
we are still hi on equity even with the RE bubble bursting.

Even if our stock portfolios down 50%, we still have investment/retirement
money.

What is the unemployment rate? 10%? Still means 90% are still working.


You wrote:
Quote:
Tell that who finished loosing it all in 1933. that will be
repeating shortly.



>Phil scott
Blash
Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 8:02 pm
Guest
Uncle_vito wrote on 11/28/08 10:54 AM:

Quote:
Everybody is telling us how it was during the great depression. Well how
many of you were alive then to give us first hand experience. If you were
alive, you were likely 10 years old or less.

I get tired of hearing referenses to that period. All depressions are
different.

Except for those folks that bought their houses in the last 5 years or so,
we are still hi on equity even with the RE bubble bursting.

Even if our stock portfolios down 50%, we still have investment/retirement
money.

What is the unemployment rate? 10%? Still means 90% are still working.


You wrote:
Tell that who finished loosing it all in 1933. that will be
repeating shortly.



Phil scott


I think he forgets that during the Great Depression, there was no FDIC,

so when a bank folded, ALL the deposits were gone......people bought stocks
on 10% OR LOWER margin so it didn't take that much of a move to wipe their
equity out, etc.
Right now, the economy sucks, but this isn't going to be another 1929...
Akash
Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:32 am
Guest
Hello Rich Uncle,

Well, I would suggest that you apply the exponetial moving averages
for starters. Then decide if you are playing for the short run or the
long run.

In case your investment plan is for the short run, then apply the 7
day EMA and 21 Day EMA to the price volume charts of the stock you
have under study. If however, your investment plan is for the long
run, then apply the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA to the price volume
charts of the stocks under study. The crossover points of the 2
respective EMAs would give you fair indication as to the probable next
moves of the stocks under study.

You may also consider applying other momentum indicators as adjuncts
to your study to get further confirmation of eminent price volume
trends of the stocks you may have under study.

In most cases the EMAs and other momentum indicators are considered to
be lead indicators (and not lag indicators) of future price volume
action of the stocks you may have under study. You may also consider
applying the on-balance volume to get the daily volumes into
perspective.

Sincerely,

Akash
http://www.narachinvestment.com
http://narachinvestment.blogspot.com
http://feedproxy.google.com/narachinvestment/uaXA
http://www.narachphilosophy.com
http://narachphilosophy.blogspot.com
http://www.narach.com
http://finance.narach.com


On Nov 28, 5:57 pm, Rich Uncle <milburnpennyb...@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
Wouldn't you say the moving average indicators tend to be
too late after-the-fact indicators?

=============================================> On Nov 28, 6:03 am, ausound <auso...@spambog.com> wrote:





spot on opinion
your perspective lends additional dimension to my own views

DJI to 6100 or thereabouts
Nasdaq to 1200 or thereabouts
s&p500 to as low as 600, I would tend to interpret to 725

after the post 911 rally
the general market consolodated and formed a double bottom in mid2002 &
early2003
after which we enjoyed Cheany's 5 yr bull market

the DJI's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 10 year moving
average

the S&P500's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 15 year moving
average

and the Nasdaq's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 20 year moving
average

all three of those Indexes have fallen through those previously
established support lines

all of those indexes have fallen below the point where terrorists chose
to attack in an attempt to inflict a mortal blow to capitalism at the
moment of perceived economic weakness.

========================================================


Marcus Aurelius <alexander...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:4b3a1b16-4d30-
4bef-a4fa-c5fd49772...@g38g2000yqn.googlegroups.com:

The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
perplexing to investors. T
But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
half.
After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -
 
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