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Finance & Stock Groups Forum Index » Mutual Funds » A prediction
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| -herb |
 Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:35 am |
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Bearing in mind that I am not clairvoyant I have to say that in my bones I
feel that if Obama is elected, today, the market will rally big time
tomorrow and if he is not it will tank.
-herb |
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| Ed |
| Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:37 am |
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"-herb" <xxx@yyy.com> wrote in message
news:p64Qk.16211$_Y1.11562@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
Quote: Bearing in mind that I am not clairvoyant I have to say that in my bones I
feel that if Obama is elected, today, the market will rally big time
tomorrow and if he is not it will tank.
-herb
If it rallies it will be because it's over. The candidates have little to do
with it. |
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| Akash |
| Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:37 am |
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| Turtle |
| Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:52 pm |
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Hi,
Does anyone want to make a prediction for the stock market?
John |
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| David |
| Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:51 pm |
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On Nov 4, 10:35 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:
Quote: Bearing in mind that I am not clairvoyant I have to say that in my bones I
feel that if Obama is elected, today, the market will rally big time
tomorrow and if he is not it will tank.
-herb
Wrong again, Herb  At least, so far, as the market is down 3%
today. But then I was wrong too as I thought it would go up. |
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| Flasherly |
| Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:51 pm |
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On Nov 5, 3:37 am, Akash <narach.investm...@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: markets have been declining through most of this year and an upward
corection is well overdue anyways.
Some technical analysts would opine that it has already started.
However, there would be waves of buying and selling intermittently
while the stock markets retrace to their expected fair value. At this
stage to expect it to go beyond fair value would be asking too much.
I'm reading they're -at- fair value now for the first time in 20 years. |
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| Flasherly |
| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:38 am |
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On Nov 5, 7:05 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:
Quote: Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
At least Asia rose nicely.
-herb
Believe that would have favored domestic equities, especially if off a
comparison table of historical P/E charts (and I'd add further
favoring an arena of small-mid caps). The Singapore index looks down
(as do South America and generally emerging markets), as much as 40%
in the past couple months, with EEM losing 12% over the course of
today (5% in automatically-generated last 30 minutes of trading). Day
before I might have made 7 or 8% EEM profits -- they're tough to play
even with a computer (trailing stops losses and/or buys), much less
predict: Lots of down days, usually more than it was up the day
before: Smelly 'ol bears and shorts are only the predictors left. |
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| -herb |
| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:05 am |
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Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
At least Asia rose nicely.
-herb |
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| Steven L. |
| Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:08 am |
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-herb wrote:
Quote: Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
Obviously.
If the Intrade market had Obama at 90% to win as of November 3, why
wouldn't the *real* stock market have priced Obama similarly?
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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| -herb |
| Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:32 am |
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"Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:ANOdnRSpWIYpzI_UnZ2dnUVZ_g2dnZ2d@earthlink.com...
Quote: -herb wrote:
Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
Obviously.
If the Intrade market had Obama at 90% to win as of November 3, why
wouldn't the *real* stock market have priced Obama similarly?
Not to mention London bookmakers who I believe over pollsters.
I was personally prepared for it to go either way.
I just thought the rest of the market might share my optimism about a new
course for our country going forward. Perhaps it will take a while to take
hold (if it does at all).
-herb |
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| David |
| Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:10 am |
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On Nov 6, 10:32 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:
Quote: "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:ANOdnRSpWIYpzI_UnZ2dnUVZ_g2dnZ2d@earthlink.com...
-herb wrote:
Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
Obviously.
If the Intrade market had Obama at 90% to win as of November 3, why
wouldn't the *real* stock market have priced Obama similarly?
Not to mention London bookmakers who I believe over pollsters.
I was personally prepared for it to go either way.
I just thought the rest of the market might share my optimism about a new
course for our country going forward. Perhaps it will take a while to take
hold (if it does at all).
-herb
So, why did the market drop 5% Wednesday and another 5% yesterday? UK
markets did the same. What was all that dancing in the streets about
when Obama was elected? Have you suddenly realised he doesn't have the
answer to the economic crisis either? Was this the shortest
Presidential honeymoon period of all time, about 3 hours? |
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| Steven L. |
| Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:31 pm |
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David wrote:
Quote: On Nov 6, 10:32 pm, "-herb" <x...@yyy.com> wrote:
"Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:ANOdnRSpWIYpzI_UnZ2dnUVZ_g2dnZ2d@earthlink.com...
-herb wrote:
Well that shows how much I know and is one more reason never to beleive
predictions.
I guess the Obama victory was "priced in."
Obviously.
If the Intrade market had Obama at 90% to win as of November 3, why
wouldn't the *real* stock market have priced Obama similarly?
Not to mention London bookmakers who I believe over pollsters.
I was personally prepared for it to go either way.
I just thought the rest of the market might share my optimism about a new
course for our country going forward. Perhaps it will take a while to take
hold (if it does at all).
-herb
So, why did the market drop 5% Wednesday and another 5% yesterday? UK
markets did the same.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
I don't think you can pin the market declines on Obama's victory.
The markets have been dropping now for most of 2008.
Because the economic meltdown is continuing, and so far the actions of
the G-7 governments to try to fix it have NOT as yet resulted in a
turnaround.
Having said that, there are signals Obama could send that might rally
the markets temporarily. Naming a capable Treasury Secretary (who looks
like he can handle these bailouts) might help.
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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