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Finance & Stock Groups Forum Index » Mutual Funds » McCain versus the S&P 500 Index
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| Steven L. |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:30 am |
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Here are McCain’s Gallup tracking numbers against the S&P 500 over the
past two weeks, with a two-day lag to let the market results filter
through Gallup’s rolling average:
http://stateoftheunion.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/marketsvsmccain1.jpg
McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent, accounting for the
divergence at the end; but regardless, the correlation between the two
data sets is a robust 0.77.
As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually
ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical
maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
[
Remarkable how McCain's polling chart tracks the S&P 500 chart, isn't it?
]
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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| David |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:30 am |
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Guest
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On Oct 10, 9:30 pm, "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: Here are McCain’s Gallup tracking numbers against the S&P 500 over the
past two weeks, with a two-day lag to let the market results filter
through Gallup’s rolling average:
http://stateoftheunion.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/marketsvsmccain1.jpg
McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent, accounting for the
divergence at the end; but regardless, the correlation between the two
data sets is a robust 0.77.
As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually
ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical
maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
[
Remarkable how McCain's polling chart tracks the S&P 500 chart, isn't it?
]
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlit...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
Why remarkable? Surely after McCains party has been in power for eight
years the voters can reasonably associate the present economic
disaster, measured by the level of the S&P500 as a proxy, with
Republican policies. Why would they want more of the same? |
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| raylopez99 |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:30 am |
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On Oct 10, 1:30 pm, "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually
ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical
maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
[
Remarkable how McCain's polling chart tracks the S&P 500 chart, isn't it?
]
Wait a minute--you just hit the key! In the next 30 days the US
Government Plunge Protection Team will try and desperately prop up the
stock market so McCain can win. Yes, that's it!
This is going to be interesting.
RL |
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| BuffetHater |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:12 am |
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Quote: McCain is old, out of touch, old, conservative and he is too old.
Republicans counter with "Yeah, well Obama is black and a muslim!"
Which is a clue.
McCain is behind in his home state by 11%. His campaign managers
are deserting him en masse.
A wipeout for republicans, they will lose everything because of bush. |
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| Nomen Nescio |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 6:10 am |
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From: Robert Blass <blame@messenger.xcx>
Quote: Something about americans giving a shit about obama knowing william
ayers??? I don't care, no one does.
Do you care that, as president, he'd have access to the highest level
classified information. But couldn't get a low level security clearance
for ANY other federal job?
Do you care that his campaign paid ACORN $800,000 to go out and
falsify voter registrations?
Do you care that his campaign is awash with questionable donations?
There are a whole lot of questions about this guy that nobody's asking
because he's a liberal BLACK man.
Hell, the Associated Press recently called Sarah Palin a "racist" for
saying something negative about a black man. Not something about
his race, just something negative about Obama, who happens to be black.
Can we at least put this guy under the same scrutiny that he would
get if he was white? |
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| Robert Blass |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:54 am |
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Guest
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On Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:30:15 -0400, "Steven L."
<sdlitvin@earthlink.net> sayd the following:
Quote: Here are McCain’s Gallup tracking numbers against the S&P 500 over the
past two weeks, with a two-day lag to let the market results filter
through Gallup’s rolling average:
http://stateoftheunion.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/marketsvsmccain1.jpg
McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent, accounting for the
divergence at the end; but regardless, the correlation between the two
data sets is a robust 0.77.
As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually
ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical
maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
[
Remarkable how McCain's polling chart tracks the S&P 500 chart, isn't it?
]
No boy, the remarkable part is McCain was going to lose this LAST YEAR
and idiots like hannity deny it will ever happen.
Something about americans giving a shit about obama knowing william
ayers??? I don't care, no one does.
McCain is old, out of touch, old, conservative and he is too old.
Republicans counter with "Yeah, well Obama is black and a muslim!"
Which is a clue. |
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| Robert Blass |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 9:16 am |
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On Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:12:40 -0700 (PDT), BuffetHater
<BuffettHater@gmail.com> sayd the following:
Quote: McCain is behind in his home state by 11%.
Ah, ARIZONA?
url? |
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| Steven L. |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 9:22 am |
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David wrote:
Quote: On Oct 10, 9:30 pm, "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Here are McCain’s Gallup tracking numbers against the S&P 500 over the
past two weeks, with a two-day lag to let the market results filter
through Gallup’s rolling average:
http://stateoftheunion.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/marketsvsmccain1.jpg
McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent, accounting for the
divergence at the end; but regardless, the correlation between the two
data sets is a robust 0.77.
As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually
ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical
maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
[
Remarkable how McCain's polling chart tracks the S&P 500 chart, isn't it?
]
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlit...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
Why remarkable? Surely after McCains party has been in power for eight
years the voters can reasonably associate the present economic
disaster, measured by the level of the S&P500 as a proxy, with
Republican policies. Why would they want more of the same?
What was remarkable is that the two curves actually correlate day to day
and week to week, not just a long-term trend of the last 8 years. I
mean, when the S&P 500 had a short-term rally, so did McCain's poll numbers.
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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| Robert Blass |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 9:22 am |
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html
No sign, never was, of McCain losing in Arizona
Were you busy getting a pubic hair out of your teeth when you hit
enter?
O'reilly likes you to lick his balls but even he is trying to give you
the hint that having his balls continuously inside your mouth is not
comfortable or safe. He's getting uneasy and doesn't want to hurt your
feelings.
Maybe you should alternate balls? One week is O'reilly's balls in your
mouth then next week Sean Hannity's balls in your mouth?
I'm trying to help you.
On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 01:16:50 -0400, Robert Blass <blame@messenger.xcx>
sayd the following:
Quote: On Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:12:40 -0700 (PDT), BuffetHater
BuffettHater@gmail.com> sayd the following:
McCain is behind in his home state by 11%.
Ah, ARIZONA?
url?
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| Ed |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:10 pm |
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| David |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:03 pm |
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On Oct 11, 5:14 pm, Robert Blass <bl...@messenger.xcx> wrote:
Quote: On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:10:21 GMT, "Ed" <fri...@frishinthe.net> sayd
the following:
Obama is going to win.
I've known this since September of 2007 < yes 2007!
None of them is up to the job IMHO, although I don't get a vote as a
UK citizen. I have to put up with our economy tanking due to yours
tanking though so I do have a real interest.
McCain is just too old and mentally and physically scarred by his war
experiences. He is not going to think of new solutions to new problems
and challenges at 72 plus. He is just Bush III with already-failed
policies of more attacks on Iraq and even Iran. He's a dangerous
throwback when we need new thinking. Also, he could keel over at any
time from a variety of possible medical conditions in the next four
years and then we would get a female Dan Quale in the form of "Hockey
Mum", whatever that is, Palin. You must be joking!
Obama comes over rather better, good on generalised, high-flown
rhetoric but where are the real policies? Does he have a solution to
the present economic troubles? Does he know anything at all about
economics? Has he got an MBA? Has he ever had a job running anything
or managing people and was he successful?
Where do you dig up these people? Not that we are any better with
dangerous duds like Blair and Brown.
I think what the situation and election are showing is that, as no one
is really up to the job, the job is too difficult and will be done
badly, which we can't afford, and we need to change the job, split it
and distribute it down to a size that a normal human being can do,
with enough checks and balances to stop him doing anything really
silly. |
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| Ed |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:04 pm |
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"David" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
Obama comes over rather better, good on generalised, high-flown
rhetoric but where are the real policies? Does he have a solution to
the present economic troubles? Does he know anything at all about
economics? Has he got an MBA? Has he ever had a job running anything
or managing people and was he successful?
Where do you dig up these people? Not that we are any better with
dangerous duds like Blair and Brown.
-----------------------------------------
Obama, like many politicians, is a lawyer. You have to understand that the
president doesn't work alone. No one knows everything about anything. Obama
will win because he's so far ahead in the polls. And because:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWX5u69hmzY |
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| Robert Blass |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:05 pm |
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On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:10:10 +0200 (CEST), Nomen Nescio
<nobody@dizum.com> sayd the following:
Quote: From: Robert Blass <blame@messenger.xcx
Something about americans giving a shit about obama knowing william
ayers??? I don't care, no one does.
Do you care that, as president, he'd have access to the highest level
classified information. But couldn't get a low level security clearance
for ANY other federal job?
Doesn't matter and has no effect on national security or the safety of
a single American. Just hype, republican hype in a loop.
Quote: Do you care that his campaign paid ACORN $800,000 to go out and
falsify voter registrations?
Do you care that his campaign is awash with questionable donations?
There are a whole lot of questions about this guy that nobody's asking
because he's a liberal BLACK man.
The 'black' issue is the real issue hidden under those fake 'security
concerns' on the hannity people lovers.
Quote: Hell, the Associated Press recently called Sarah Palin a "racist" for
saying something negative about a black man. Not something about
his race, just something negative about Obama, who happens to be black.
Can we at least put this guy under the same scrutiny that he would
get if he was white?
You mean the same scrutiny as we did for Reagan and Bush I & II? |
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| Robert Blass |
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:05 pm |
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Guest
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On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:10:21 GMT, "Ed" <friday@frishinthe.net> sayd
the following:
Quote: Obama is going to win.
I've known this since September of 2007 < yes 2007! |
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| Steven L. |
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:43 am |
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David wrote:
Quote: On Oct 11, 5:14 pm, Robert Blass <bl...@messenger.xcx> wrote:
On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:10:21 GMT, "Ed" <fri...@frishinthe.net> sayd
the following:
Obama is going to win.
I've known this since September of 2007 < yes 2007!
None of them is up to the job IMHO, although I don't get a vote as a
UK citizen. I have to put up with our economy tanking due to yours
tanking though so I do have a real interest.
McCain is just too old and mentally and physically scarred by his war
experiences. He is not going to think of new solutions to new problems
and challenges at 72 plus. He is just Bush III with already-failed
policies of more attacks on Iraq and even Iran. He's a dangerous
throwback when we need new thinking. Also, he could keel over at any
time from a variety of possible medical conditions in the next four
years and then we would get a female Dan Quale in the form of "Hockey
Mum", whatever that is, Palin. You must be joking!
Obama comes over rather better, good on generalised, high-flown
rhetoric but where are the real policies? Does he have a solution to
the present economic troubles? Does he know anything at all about
economics? Has he got an MBA? Has he ever had a job running anything
or managing people and was he successful?
The dynamics of the race, and the major issues, changed in the two long
years since this Presidential campaign first started.
When it started, the Iraq War was raging, Bush's controversial surge had
just gotten underway, and so foreign policy was dominating the primaries
and caucuses. McCain began to score in the Republican primaries because
of his strong support for the surge. (Romney, who knows much more about
economics, wasn't as strong on foreign policy.) And Obama began to
score in the Democratic primaries because of his opposition to the Iraq
War. (Hillary, who knows more about economics, alienated the Democratic
base by refusing to apologize for her vote in favor of the war.)
Back then, *no one*, not Bush, not the candidates of the major parties,
were anticipating this major economic crisis. If this crisis had
occurred one year ago instead of today, the nominees of *both* parties
might well have been different. Because now, economics has supplanted
Iraq as the number one issue. But too late to help Romney, Giuliani, or
Hillary, all of whom were stronger on economics.
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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| David |
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:40 am |
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Guest
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On Oct 12, 12:43 am, "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: David wrote:
On Oct 11, 5:14 pm, Robert Blass <bl...@messenger.xcx> wrote:
On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:10:21 GMT, "Ed" <fri...@frishinthe.net> sayd
the following:
Obama is going to win.
I've known this since September of 2007 < yes 2007!
None of them is up to the job IMHO, although I don't get a vote as a
UK citizen. I have to put up with our economy tanking due to yours
tanking though so I do have a real interest.
McCain is just too old and mentally and physically scarred by his war
experiences. He is not going to think of new solutions to new problems
and challenges at 72 plus. He is just Bush III with already-failed
policies of more attacks on Iraq and even Iran. He's a dangerous
throwback when we need new thinking. Also, he could keel over at any
time from a variety of possible medical conditions in the next four
years and then we would get a female Dan Quale in the form of "Hockey
Mum", whatever that is, Palin. You must be joking!
Obama comes over rather better, good on generalised, high-flown
rhetoric but where are the real policies? Does he have a solution to
the present economic troubles? Does he know anything at all about
economics? Has he got an MBA? Has he ever had a job running anything
or managing people and was he successful?
The dynamics of the race, and the major issues, changed in the two long
years since this Presidential campaign first started.
When it started, the Iraq War was raging, Bush's controversial surge had
just gotten underway, and so foreign policy was dominating the primaries
and caucuses. McCain began to score in the Republican primaries because
of his strong support for the surge. (Romney, who knows much more about
economics, wasn't as strong on foreign policy.) And Obama began to
score in the Democratic primaries because of his opposition to the Iraq
War. (Hillary, who knows more about economics, alienated the Democratic
base by refusing to apologize for her vote in favor of the war.)
Back then, *no one*, not Bush, not the candidates of the major parties,
were anticipating this major economic crisis. If this crisis had
occurred one year ago instead of today, the nominees of *both* parties
might well have been different. Because now, economics has supplanted
Iraq as the number one issue. But too late to help Romney, Giuliani, or
Hillary, all of whom were stronger on economics.
--
Steven L.
Email: sdlit...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
What baffles me in a self-proclaimed Democracy is how nearly all the
top people in the US Government are appointed and not elected. The
President is elected but the President and Vice-President come as a
pair so the VP is not really elected independently. But after that,
who elected Rice, or Paulson or Bernanke? No one, I think. The 15
members of the cabinet are, as far as I know, all appointed by Bush.
Supreme Court members who help form the laws are also appointed. What
about the CIA, FBI, Pentagon? No elections there either. All these
people are accountable to the President and not the voters, giving the
President huge powers of patronage and hence too much power.
I would have thought all the these offices should be held by elected
Senators or Congressmen, including the President and VP. This could
give the Senate the ability to vote out a dud President and replace
him before he did too much harm. This would help restore some power to
the voters. |
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| Andrew Koenig |
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 7:04 pm |
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"Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:HaWdnT3-wP6Vp2zVnZ2dnUVZ_tjinZ2d@earthlink.com...
Quote: Back then, *no one*, not Bush, not the candidates of the major parties,
were anticipating this major economic crisis.
McCain was. Here's a quote from a letter he and 19 other senators wrote to
Bill Frist on May 5, 2006:
We are concerned that if effective regulatory reform legislation for the
housing-finance government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) is not enacted this
year, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk
that Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac pose to the housing market, the overall
financial system, and the economy as a whole. ...
Today, almost half of the home mortgages in the U.S. are guaranteed by
these GSEs. They are mammoth financial institutions with almost $1.5
Trillion of debt outstanding between them. With the fiscal challenges facing
us today (deficits, entitlements, pensions and flood insurance), Congress
must ask itself who would pay this debt if Fannie or Freddy could not? ...
It is vitally important that Congress take the necessary steps to ensure
that these institutions benefit from strong and independent regulatory
supervision, operate in a safe and sound manner, and are primarily focused
on their statutory mission. More importantly, Congress must ensure that the
American taxpayer is protected in the event either GSE should fail.
He even proposed legislation to deal with the problem, and that legislation
even passed the Senate Banking Committee. Unfortunately, because it passed
on a straight party-line vote, it became clear that it was not going to
survive a Democratic filibuster -- partly because Chris Dodd, the chair of
the Banking Committee, had received so much in campaign contributions from
Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. |
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| larry moe 'n curly |
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:48 am |
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BuffetHater wrote:
Quote: McCain is behind in his home state by 11%.
I live in AZ and can't stand McCain, but it's highly unlikely that
he's trailing here, except in the Tucson area, traditionally the most
Democratic part of the state.. An Oct. 1 poll by ASU's college of
journalism shows McCain ahead by 7% points, down from 10% points a
month earlier. |
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| larry moe 'n curly |
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:11 am |
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Robert Blass wrote:
Quote: On Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:12:40 -0700 (PDT), BuffetHater
BuffettHater@gmail.com> sayd the following:
McCain is behind in his home state by 11%.
Ah, ARIZONA?
url?
It's more likely that McCain is ahead of Obama by 7% points. Arizona
isn't as solidly right wing or Republican as it used to be, but even
in the old days, Barry Goldwater's biggest election margin was just
60%, and that was against the most liberal Democrat who ever ran
against him. Among newcomers to the state, 55% are independents, 33%
Democrats, and 11% Republicans. |
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| larry moe 'n curly |
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:39 am |
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David wrote:
Quote: McCain is just too old and mentally and physically scarred by his war
experiences.
The war probably made him a better, more mature person that he would
have been otherwise, and he's not too old, mentally or physically,
although my father, who's the same age, thinks otherwise.
McCain's real shortcomings include being too willing to sell out his
principles for political gain -- look at how he's pandered to
religious fundamentalists, made such a poor choice for a running mate,
and has campaigned against torture but then voted to approve torture.
Another problem is that McCain doesn't study the issues in depth and
has only shallow knowledge even in military and international matters
-- he predicted that a war with Iraq would be over in just a few days,
and he still doesn't know the difference between Shiite and Sunni. My
father said that just because somebody has military experience doesn't
necessarily mean he's qualified to lead an army.
Quote: Obama comes over rather better, good on generalised, high-flown
rhetoric but where are the real policies? Does he have a solution to
the present economic troubles? Does he know anything at all about
economics? Has he got an MBA?
No, he was able to get into law school. MBAs are for law school
rejects, like GW Bush (University of Texas turned him down). But
Obama has some first-rate economic advisors, including former Federal
Reserve chairman Paul Volcker and former Clinton Treasury secretary
Robert Rubin. They're definitely better than McCain's Phil Gramm, who
years ago laid down the foundations of today's financial collapse. |
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