The Ord Oracle September 29/05
by Tim Ord
September 29/05
*Interview with Ike Iossif on September 17. http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer Digest" has Tim Ord ranked
#5 for one
year ending 6/3/05 and #2 in Gold
for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon:Short SPX on 9/13/05
at 1231.20.
Short Nasdaq 7/29/05 at 2184.83.
For monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
What to expect now:
We have posted the weekly SPX graph with the MACD (Courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com)/.
A sell signal was triggered on the weekly SPX chart back in the first
week of August and the sell signal remains intact. The sell signal was
triggered by a re-test of a previous high on lighter volume and then closing
below the previous high on the weekly time frame.Last week the down candle
produce a "Sign of Weakness", which is a wide price spread week with high
volume.
The highest volume weekly candle goes in the direction of the true trend.Since
last week produce the highest volume and it was a down week, then that
implies the trend has turned down.The weekly MACD turned down last week
and helps to confirm the downtrend. The next area of support comes in
near the August low near the 1200 range, which could produce a bounce.
We do have longer-term targets down to the April lows near
the 1140 range that may be hit in late October or early November. We are
short the SPX at 1231.20.
Short Goog (special email alert) at 315.12 on 9/27/05. Down side target
near 275 that could be hit in November.
Your invited to The Ord Oracle two day (Saturday
and Sunday October 8 and 9) Technical
analysis work shop at the Denver tech center Marriott, Denver, Colorado.
Learn the rules for high percentage Stock and index trades.Learn the rules
of Volume analysis. Special discount on previous attendees.
Money back guarantee, you take no risk. Call for details (402-486-0362).Or
visit www.ord-oracle.com.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume"visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq
Composite:
On the recent low on the Nasdaq on 9/22 at the 2090 range, there were
no positive divergences on the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator or "5%, 10%
index".For worthwhile bottom to occur there should have been a positive
divergence where the Nasdaq made a new short term low and the Oscillator
and "5%, 10% index" made a higher low.Therefore, the current bounce is
all part of a consolidation phase rather then the beginning of a rally
phase. Over the weeks to come we expect the decline to continue.
The Weekly MACD on the Nasdaq has not turned down yet, but could turn
down this week if the Nasdaq remains flat to down. We are holding
our short on the Nasdaq (2184.83). The decline could last into late
October to early November and could reach down to 1900 range on the Nasdaq,
which is the April low.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the
#2 gold timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37.This trade is separate from
our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05).
We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
Below is the daily XAU displayed with the "Price Relative to Gold" ratio
(courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com).Our price target for the next possible
consolidation phase may begin near 130 range on the XAU.The 130 range
is an ABC target from the August low (refer to the XAU chart below).The
XAU is running into the November 2004 and December 2003 highs at the 111
range now.
Usually when a market tests the previous highs the third time the market
usually rallies through.If the 130 range is hit near term, we would expect
a consolidation phase to begin and that a pull back to the support zone
near 111 would be expected. We think a longer term high will appear near
the 180 range on the XAU due in October 2006.
The"Price Relative to Gold" is also displayed.Notice the Month of September
rise on "Price Relative to Gold" that the rise was much steeper.This condition
implies the Gold Issues have risen at a faster rate then gold over this
time frame and implies gold issues are becoming stronger now then a month
ago.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an
average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long
NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average
price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at -101 and oversold for the short
term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .51 and neutral level.
The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 4.44 and at neutral level.
Conclusion: short 9/13/05 on SPX at 1231.20 range. Short
Nasdaq on 7/29 at 2184.83.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Flat.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362