The Ord Oracle July 22/05
by Tim Ord
July 22/05
*Interview
with Ike Iossif on July 8 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5
for one year ending 6/3/05 and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon:
Flat.
Short
term Trade: Long Nasdaq At 2138 on 7/13/05.
Sold on 7/14/05 for gain of .70%.
For monitoring purposes
XAU: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes: Flat.
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit
card. Call (1-970-224-3981)
for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00.
Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
What to expect now.
On Tuesday report, we said, "On July 14 the S&P ran into the previous
high set on March 7 and than closed below that high triggering a warning
sign that this market may be topping.
However, volume was higher on July 14 than the previous high set
on March 7. Market do not
make tops on high volume, the high volume top is always tested on lighter
volume before a bearish signal is triggered.
Therefore, since July 14 had higher volume than the previous high
of March 7, we are expecting the
July 14 high to be tested on lighter volume and than close below the July
14 high before a bearish signal setup is created."
Yesterday the July 14 high was tested as expected but volume again
was higher and suggest yesterday's high will be tested again.
Today's rally did not touch yesterday's high and therefore nothing
was proven. It appears a top is
not far off but no signal has been triggered yet.
NASDAQ
Market:
We had an upside target to the 2190 level, which is the January 3, 2005 high. The volume on January 3rd came in at 2.16 billion shares. Today the Nasdaq touched that level, hitting a high today of 2193.19. However today's volume was 2.05 billions shares, only 5% less. For a bearish signal to be triggered, a test of a previous high should be on volume that is at least 8% less than the previous high. Today's test came on reduced volume of 5% and not enough shrinkage for a bearish signal to be triggered. There may more tests of the January 3 high before a bearish signal is triggered. The "Price Relative to SPX" is still in an up-trend and has not generated a bearish signal yet. However, this indicator usually lags. The Nasdaq McClellan Summation index is still trending up and no bearish signal triggered here. For the moment, we have to say the trend is still up.
GOLD Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short
term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate
from our long-term position in BGO. We bought
EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05)
at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
The XAU found support
at the 90 gap level that was created between June 15 and 16 and has started
to rally. On the XAU graph below
(courtesy www.decisionpoint.com)
the "Price relative to Gold" is displayed. "Price Relative to Gold"
broke above the downtrend line connecting the highs going back to the
November high. This condition triggered
a bullish intermediate term signal. The recent pull back
did not negate this bullish signal. It still appears the XAU is building
"Cause" for the breakout above the 94 level. The next resistance
is the 104 range, which is the March high. September through December
is the strongest part of Seasonality for Gold and will most likely be
the strongest time for gold Issues.
We double our positions
in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70.
Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We
bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362