The Ord Oracle December 17/04
by Tim Ord
December 17/04
Interview with Ike Iossif on December 9 http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
Interview
with Leo Leydon For December 6 http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html
-click archive.
For 30 to 90 days horizon:
Sold long SPX (12/10/04) at 1188.00 for gain of 8.5%. Long SPX (10/25/04) at 1094.46. Sold long Nasdaq (12/10/04) at 2128.07
for gain of 8.93%. Long Nasdaq (10/21/04) at 1953.62.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96
on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes:
Long on 8/19/04 at 1091.23
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit
card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We
update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call
me (402) 486-0362.
What to expect now.
We turned neutral on the market last Friday. On today's decline the NYSE
McClellan Summation index turned back down and implies the short term
trend has turn back down. The
first support comes in near the 1190 range and below that the 1170 range. The MACD and ADX both have turned down
and suggest the market up-trend has ended for the short term and a consolidation
phase is underway. We will
be keying of the Summation index next up-turn on the next long position. For now we are flat the S&P.
Friday
(12/10/04), we sent out a special intraday report, We sold 1/2 (12/10/04)
ISON at 4.33 (8.25% gain) and have a stop on the remaining 1/2 at 4.00. This stock had big volume on today's rally and a bullish sign. Sold 1/2 (12/10/04) eght at 4.20 (60% gain)
and have stop on remaining 1/2 position at 3.50. This stock also had big
volume today to the upside and bullish.
Nasdaq Composite:
The Nasdaq declined 40 points on December 7 on big volume of 2.61 billion
shares and is called a "Sign of Weakness". A "Sign of Weakness" right
after a short term high is a bearish sign and warns that a potential short
term high may be forming. Yesterday
the Nasdaq tested the previous high of December 3 and was unable to close
above that high and suggest the up-trend may be ending.
However, volume on the test was near equal and suggest after the
potential pull back the market will head higher again. The test of the December 3 high does imply
is that the Nasdaq may test the previous low set on December 9 near the
2100 range. Today's decline
on the Nasdaq came on increased volume and implies the energy for the
moment is to the downside. We
will watch the 2100 area for a potential bullish re-test and a potential
buy signal. The Bigger trend is up and if the pull back does materialize
near term we would look to re-establish a long position.
For now we are staying flat the Nasdaq.
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On Tuesday commentary, we said the following and for the moment we see
no reason to change from this view, "On the XAU, appears a possible "Right
Shoulder" is in development and may last into late January of 2005. This potential "Right Shoulder" should
find support near 96 and resistance near 110 area. Therefore the XAU may be in a consolidation
phase for several more weeks. We ultimately expect the XAU will head to
the 150 range and possibly to 180 range. Since the decline from the January 2004
at 113 area down to May 10 low near 77 appears to be a "last Point of
Support" then the next phase that the XAU market should lead into is a
"Buying Climax" which is still at least 6 months away."
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Christmas Gift.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an
average price at 2.70. BGO appears to have started the next impulse wave
to the 4.00 range. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89.
CBJ appears ready to break the resistance band near 3.15 to 3.30 areas.
Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly
chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS
on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Long
PMU at average 1.12.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362