The Ord Oracle December 09/04
by Tim Ord
December 09/04
*Interview with Ike Iossif on October 28
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
**Interview with Leo Leydon For December 6 http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html -click archive.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (10/25/04) at 1094.46. Long Nasdaq (10/21/04) at 1953.62.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring
purposes:
Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23
What to expect
now:
We have an upside targets 1260 to 1315 on the S&P and 2300 area on
the Nasdaq due in the January time frame.
Support now comes in near the 1170 range, which is the March 2002
high and below that 1160 area which is the March 04 high.
Previous highs once exceeded on increased volume become support. Therefore, there is not much downside
from current levels. It appears
a possible "Fourth Wave" is in process of a 5-wave sequence from the August
low. Therefore, wave 5 up
is still forthcoming. We noticed that a lot of the lower price issues
is doing very well and implies speculation is starting to enter into the
market. That is not a bad sign right now but could
be in January when we are expecting a consolidation of a bigger degree
to begin. This potential
bigger consolidation may last several months and therefore we may take
profits on our positions. Our upside target on the S&P is the 1260
to 1315 range. We are staying long the SPX that
was bought on 10/25/04 at 1094.23.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume"
please visit www.ord-oracle.com.
Bought ISON (12/2/04) at 4.00.
Long (11/12/04) EVOL at 3.60.
Long (9/22/04) NEXM at 1.33. Long LU at 3.45and sold 11/11/04 at 3.83
for 11% gain. We hold HPC at 13.73.
We bought EGHT at 2.62. Long INGP on 10/7 at 5.22, sold
at 6.28 on 11/18 for 20% gain.
Nasdaq Composite:
The Nasdaq hit against the January high near the 2153 range
on increased volume late last week and implies as some point the market
will break through. Test of previous highs on increased volume is bullish.
Support now comes in near the 2100 level and should hold any pull back.
We have an upside target near the 2300 range before the next higher
degree consolidation begins.
We are staying long the Nasdaq (10/21) at 1953.62.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest"
has ranked Tim Ord as the top gold timer for
the last 12 months ending 11/12/04.
We though the gap near the 103 would hold the pull back on the XAU. Instead the Market went down to the next
support zone. We have a graph
of the HUI index (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). A bearish market should never exceed the
February low near 207 level. The
HUI not only did that but also exceeded the late March high of over 240
and did so on increased volume.
Making higher highs on increased volume is a definition of a bull
market. What it appears is going on here is the
market is making a "Right Shoulder" of a "Head and Shoulders Bottom". The "Right Shoulder" and "Left Shoulder"
are usually symmetric in time and price.
The "Left Shoulder" took 4 months to complete and therefore the
"Right Shoulder" should also. We
are taking October 1 as the beginning date of the "Right Shoulder" and
four months will lead to February 1 for it to be completed. The pattern remains bullish. (Gold Jumped
the "Creek" at 430 range in November and today's decline is just a testing
of the of the "Creek" area and a bullish development.)
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Gss is not acting well for the moment. No change for now. Long PMU at average 1.12.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at -115 and has turned down the
summation index and a bearish sign.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .42 and neutral.
“Five day ARMS” indicator closed at 5.73 and neutral territory.
Conclusion: Long SPX at 1094.8 on 10/25/04.
Long Nasdaq 1953.62 on 10/21/04.
Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362