The Ord Oracle June 22/05
by Tim Ord
June 22/05
*Interview
with Ike Iossif on June 10 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5
for one year ending 6/3/05 and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For
30 to 90 days horizon:
Long
SPX on 6/16/05 at 1210.93. Flat the SPX (6/22/05)
at 1213.88 for gain of .24% Long NASDAQ on 6/16/05
at 2089.15. Flat Nasdaq (6/22/05)
at 2092.03 for gain of modest gain of .14%.
Short term Trade: Long S&P cash
10:45 Eastern 6/16/05 (morning cut off) at 1211.95. Flat S&P cash 6/22/05
at 1213.88 for gain of .16%.
For monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
What
to expect now:
We sold our positions in the S&P today because the NYSE McClellan
Oscillator is showing a negative divergence and suggest the S&P does
not have enough strength to head higher near term.
However, we are only expecting a consolation that may lasts possibly
into the August time frame. The August time frame
is the anniversary of last year low. Anniversary time frames
a lot of the time mark turns in the market. We are not bearish here
on the bigger times frames. The reason is that the
"Wilshire 5000" on June 17 hit the previous swing of March 7 on higher
volume. High volume tops
are always tested if not exceeded.
This condition suggest you can have pull backs but once the pull
back is complete the market will again test if not break the June 17 high
on the Wilshire at 12110. Therefore, if the market
does pull back here, we will look for the next buy signal.
We sold our S&P position today for a .24% gain on the "30 to
90 day Horizon" and .14% gain for the short term S&P position.
We
bought ASTM at 2.63 (5/26/05), It's a Biotech. Our stop at 2.79 was
hit today (6/22/05). Gain
of 6%.
To
learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq
Composite:
We have
displayed a graph of the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator index on the last
page of this report,(Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). What
this graph shows on the Nasdaq is that the current high has less stocks
rising than the previous high at the beginning of June.
These type of short-term negative divergence show up right before
a top. We are not expecting
any severe decline here but there is likelihood for a pull back that could
last several weeks. We were expecting the
2100 level to be broken because on June 17 the Nasdaq attacked the 2100
area on high volume and suggest the market was attempting to break through. To break through the
2100 level there should be a strong number of issues carry the market
higher. On the test of the 2100 area today the Oscillator is much lower
compared to the early June high and today's test of the previous high of
June 17 had much lighter
volume and is also a short term bearish sign. We still expect the Nasdaq
will break the 2100 barrier this year but at a later date.
The low last year in August may be an important time frame for
the next turn in the Market. We
are flat the Nasdaq on today's close for a modes gain.
GOLD
Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold
timer for 2004.
Short
term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate
from our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold
Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our
average price to .81.
There
is really no significant resistance on the XAU until the March high near
the 103 range on the XAU. We expect the XAU to
work to that range in the coming weeks. The 103 area could put
in a consolidation phase that could last a month to 6 weeks.
Before the year is out, we expect the XAU to jump the January
and November highs of 113 and rally to 120 to 130 range before the another
consolidation set in. Our longer term target
is still 180 range.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.'
The
McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +54 and overbought for the short
term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .56 and neutral.
The "5 day ARMS" close today at 4.60 and neutral.
Conclusion: A consolidation may begin near term.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX on 4/12/05 at 1187.76. Covered Short SPX on 5/17/05 at 1173.80
for gain of 1.2%.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362