The Ord Oracle June 09/05
by Tim Ord
June 09/05
*Interview with Ike Iossif on May 27 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #3
for one year ending 5/13/05 and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Flat the S&P and Nasdaq
for the moment.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
What to expect now:
On the last page of this report, we have displayed the graph
of the NYSE (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). What we wanted
to point out here is that yesterday this market test the previous important
swing high of April 1 on 15% less volume and than closed below the April
first high. This condition is called an "Upthrust" and a short term
bearish sign. Also notice that on the rally for the last several
weeks that (in general) the volume has decline, which shows energy to
the upside is decreasing. To sustain a rally, the volume should
be generally increasing. Therefore there are some things wrong with
the current rally. However, we like to trade in the direction of
the NYSE Summation index and right now this index is trending up so we
will not look for a short position here. But rather we will wait for a
pull back and look to go long (providing volume is light on the pull back).
If a pull back does materialize here, support is still near the 1175 area
on the S&P. Mr Greenspan talks tomorrow and may trigger the short
term turn in the market.
We bought
ASTM (per intraday email) at 2.63 (5/26/05), It's a Biotech.
To
learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq Composite:
On Monday's report, we said, "Last Wednesday (June 1), we sent a graph
of the Nasdaq dating back to November 2004. What we wanted shown
on this graph is that the Nasdaq may be drawing a "Head and Shoulders
Bottom" where the April low was the "Head" and the February and March
time frame represented the "Left Shoulder". Usually the "Right Shoulder"
is similar in time and price as the "Left Shoulder". The "Left Shoulder"
took about two months to complete. If that holds true for the potential
"Right Shoulder" than the Nasdaq may develop a trading range for the next
two months. Support comes in near the 2015 range and resistance
comes in near the 2100 level and these trading boundaries may represent
the "Right Shoulder". However, it's to soon to know if this
trading range will indeed develop. The Summer period is in general
the dull period of the year and a trading range here would make since.
For near term we would like to see the Nasdaq test the February 15 high
at the 2103.45 level on lighter volume. This condition would setup
for a pull back to support near the 2015 range. If the 2015 range is tested
on lighter volume a potential buy signal could get triggered. We
are only playing the long side now because the Nasdaq Summation index
is trending up." Nothing has changed since Monday and we are still
looking for this setup to materialize.
GOLD Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold
timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate from our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
BGO has short term support at
2.05, next upside significant resistance is 3.20 range. The 3.20
area may produce a consolidation that may last 6 weeks. We still
have our long term target to 9.00 on BGO. CBJ has short term support
at 1.88. Next upside target is 2.70, which also may produce a consolidation
that may last several weeks. Longer-term target on CBJ is still
8.00 to 10.00. EGO has short term support at 2.22. Next short
term upside target is 3.00. Bigger time frames suggest EGO should
go to 6.50. PMU has support at .50 with the next upside target to
.80. Bigger picture suggests PMU could go to 3.50. NXG has
short term support at 1.10. Next upside resistance is 1.35.
If NXG gets through 1.35, than next upside target is 2.60. If 2.80
is exceeded on NXG than stock should go to 8.00.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an
average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long
NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average
price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillator closed
today's at +91 and overbought for the short term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .48 and in neutral territory.
The "5 day ARMS" close today at 5.83 and in neutral territory.
Conclusion: Bigger trend on the S&P and Nasdaq appears to be sideways
where the previous highs are resistance and previous low is support.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX on 4/12/05 at 1187.76. Covered Short SPX on 5/17/05 at 1173.80 for gain of 1.2%.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362