The Ord Oracle June 02/05
by Tim Ord
June 02/05
*Interview with Ike Iossif
on May 27 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer Digest" has Tim Ord ranked #3 for one year ending
5/13/05 and #2 in Gold for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Flat the S&P and Nasdaq for the
moment.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX on 4/12/05 at 1187.76. Covered Short SPX on 5/17/05 at 1173.80 for gain
of 1.2%.
What to expect now:
The NYSE Summation index is trending up and implies the trend is up. However, we believe a short term pull back is about to begin. Today the S&P tested the gap level that formed at the 1200 range between March 15 and 16. Today's test of this gap area came on lighter volume and suggests resistance. This condition suggests a pull back in this area is still likely. Support comes in near the gap level below current prices near the 1175 range. There is support also at the early may highs near the 1180 range. If the 1175 to 1180 area is tested on lighter volume than a potential buy signal could get triggered at that level. Our upside target will be the March highs near the 1230 range.
We bought ASTM (per intraday email) at 2.63 (5/26/05), It's a Biotech.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq Composite:
We have included a graph of the Nasdaq on the last page of this report (Courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com/). The reason we are displaying the Nasdaq is that we wanted to show a bigger time frame than the one we have in our report. On the Nasdaq graph below, there is stiff resistance at the 2100 area which were the tops in January February and March. The longer the period of tops the stronger the resistance. The previous highs at the 2100 area lasted over two months and therefore, we don't think the Nasdaq will rally though this resistance zone the first time up. The Nasdaq has not quite hit this resistance zone yet and may work modestly higher near term until the 2100 level is fully tested. Once fully tested we are expecting the Nasdaq to start a pull back and go down and test support near the 2020 range. Since the Nasdaq Summation index is trending up (implies the trend is up) we will look for a potential buy signal near the 2020 range. The area between 2020 and 2100 area may develop into a trading range and this potential trading range could develop into the "Left Shoulder" of a "Head and Shoulders" bottom where the April low is the "Head". Therefore, if a signal is triggered near the 2020 range, our first upside target will be back to the 2100 range. If the 2100 area is tested on lighter volume than the Nasdaq may turn back down possibly to test 2020 range once again and create the "Right Shoulder" of this potential "Head and Shoulders Bottom". Normally both "Shoulders" of a "Head and Shoulders" pattern are similar in time and price. Therefore, if the "Left Shoulder" took 2 months to complete, the "Right Shoulder" will take about 2 months to complete. That is why the 2020 potential buy signal will stall the first time up near the 2100 level because the potential "Right Shoulder" will need more time to complete.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has
ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate
from our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23
(5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price
to .81.
The XAU and DJUSPM index may have turned the corner
to the upside on the May low. An "Elliott 5th wave" of a five wave sequence
from the 2000 low may be starting. The "5th wave" is usually the strongest.
This "5th wave" may take over one year to possible 1 1/2 years to complete.
Our upside targets remain 150 to possibly 180 on the XAU.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an
average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long
NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average
price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +183 and
overbought for the short term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .56 and in neutral territory.
The "5 day ARMS" close today at 5.13 and in neutral territory.
Conclusion: Bigger trend on the S&P and Nasdaq appears to be sideways
where the previous highs are resistance and previous low is support.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362