The Ord Oracle May 12/05
by Tim Ord
May 12/05
Interview with Ike Iossif on April 15http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5
on returns for the S&P and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For
30 to 90 days horizon:
Flat the S&P and Nasdaq for the moment.
For
monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes:
Short SPX (S&P cash) on 4/12/05 at
1187.76.
What
to expect now:
On yesterday's report,
we said, "The NYSE McClellan Summation index is trending up and implies
the short-term trend is up. The McClellan Oscillator
closed +171 yesterday. When the McClellan Oscillator
hits over +150 after being in negative territory (which is was for most
of the months of March and April) implies the start of a minor impulse
wave up is starting. Therefore, after this
minor pull back is complete, another leg up is implied." This next up-leg may
be in the process of starting. We still have an upside
target on the S&P near the 1200 range, which is where a "Gap" is left
open. We have found most "Gaps" are like magnets to a market and when
the market is drawn back to the gap level it turns into a resistance zone.
The 1200 range on the
S&P may be where the next intermediate term sell signal is triggered.
The week before Option Expiration week can carry a lot of volatility and
today's up and down gyration fit that expatiation.
We will watch the 1200 area on the S&P for a potential sell
signal.
Long 4/21/05 ENG at 2.25,
moved stop to 2.30 on 5/11. First target to
3.40.
To
learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq
Composite:
The
Nasdaq broke its trend line up from the March 2003 low in mid April.
This trend line should now act as resistance on any rally attempt
back to it. This resistance
zone comes in near the 2000 range. We may look for a new
short near the 2000 range. We covered our short on the Nasdaq on Monday
(5/2/05) for a 1.1% gain.
GOLD
Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold
timer for 2004.
Short
term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate
from our long term position in BGO.
The
"Price Relative To Gold" ratio is still below .20 and suggests the gold
issues are cheap and making a longer-term bottom.
Courtesy of www.bigchart.com,
NXG could be drawing a "Down Sloping Wedge" pattern that has an upside
target to March 2004 highs near 2.58. The top chart on NXG, suggest this
stock will rally through the resistance at the 2.58 range and rally to
the next resistance at 8.00. PMU went side ways into a trading range with
boundaries between .50 and .80 form May 2004. A break above .80 with volume
would suggest the next upside target to December 2003 high near 1.80.
CBJ may test the April
low near 1.73 and than start a rally. BGO have a buy on the
weekly charts last week.
We double
our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price
at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of
2.26. Long PMU at average
1.12.
The
McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +86 and overbought for near term.
The
“Percent Volume” Indicator closed .49 and neural.
The
"5 day ARMS" close today at 4.48 and neutral for short term.
Conclusion:
Bigger trend on the S&P and Nasdaq is down but expect a pop up near
term.
Longer Term Trend:
Short SPX (S&P cash) on 4/12/05 at 1187.76.
ord-oracle.com
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