The Ord Oracle May 05/05
by Tim Ord
May 05/05
Interview with Ike Iossif
on April 15 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5 on returns for the S&P
and #2 in Gold for 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Covered short SPX on 5/2 at 1162.16
for gain 0% gain. Short SPX on 4/14/05 at
1162.05. Covered short
Nasdaq on 5/2 at 1928.65 for 1.1% gain. Short Nasdaq on 4/25 at 1950.78.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring
purposes: Short SPX (S&P cash) on 4/12/05 at
1187.76.
What to expect now:
(Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com) On the last
page of this report we have displayed a graph of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator
and Summation index. Notice
the Summation index (Marked in Red) made a lower high going into the March
high as the NYSE made a higher high.
This is a major divergence on a big time frame and suggests the
market made a significant high going into the March high and implies the
bigger trend is now down. Shorter term notice
the Oscillator (marked in Blue) made a higher low than the previous low
with the NYSE making a lower low than the previous low.
This is a short term positive divergence and suggest the market
should make a short term bounce. Also notice at the bottom
of the graph (Circled in Orange) that NYSE Summation index is now trending
up. The Summation index
is a good trend following tool. When the market is an
up-trend the Summation index is also trending up. There is a gap left
open near the 1200 area on the S&P and we have found most gaps get
filled. The S&P may find
resistance at this gap area and may be the place to look for another short
position. The longer-term trend
is still down and we are holding our long-term short position on the SPX.
Long 4/21/05 ENG at 2.25, moved stop to 2.14 on 4/26.
First target to 3.40.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq Composite:
Friday, the Nasdaq tested the previous low set on 4/18
and volume shrank (compared to the 4/15 low) by 12% and
a short term bullish sign. This re-test of a previous
low on lighter volume generated a bullish sign and we covered our short
on the Nasdaq. This potential bounce
may take the Nasdaq to it's upside resistance near the 2000 range.
We may look for a new short near the 2000 range.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05)
at 2.37. This trade is separate
from our long term position in BGO.
BGO tested the May 2004 low (1.97) on lighter volume this week.
If BGO closes above the May 2004 low of 1.97 on Friday of this
week, it will generate a bullish signal that will have a minimum upside
target the December 2004 high of 3.87. We would like to see
CBJ test the 4/12 low near the 1.73 on lighter volume to complete the
bottoming process. NXG is still looking for a bottom.
The "Price Relative To Gold" ratio hit below .19 recently
and suggests the gold issues are making a bottom. We will see how NXG
does on the next rally phase. NXG could be drawing
a "Down Sloping Wedge" pattern that has an upside target to March 2004
highs near 2.58. PMU went side ways into
a trading range with boundaries between .50 and .80 form May 2004. A break
above .80 with volume would suggest the next upside target to December
2003 high near 1.80.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's
at +132 and overbought for near term.
ord-oracle.com
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