The Ord Oracle April 20/05

by Tim Ord
April 20/05

*Interview with Ike Iossif on March 31 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm

"Timer Digest" has Tim Ord ranked #5 on returns for the S&P and #2 in Gold for 2004.

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Short SPX on 4/14/05 at 1162.5.

For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.

Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX (S&P cash) on 4/12/05 at 1187.76.

What to expect now:

The S&P broke support at the 1165 range (Blue Arrow) on heavy volume and wide price spread (known as "Sign of Weakness") last Thursday and Friday and confirming the intermediate downtrend. Monday the S&P broke to a minor low below Friday's low and volume shrank substantially and than closed above Friday's low, triggering a short term bullish sign. Today the S&P tested Friday's low again and volume shrank over 15% and suggests there is support at current levels even though the S&P closed below Friday's low. This potential short-term bullish sign may take the S&P back up near the "Break down" area at the 1165 range. The previous support at 1165 range should now become resistance. Our bigger time frame downside target would still be the August low near the 1060 range at a minimum and possibly all the way to down to 950 at the max. The next higher resistance on the S&P is the 1200 range and if the S&P did manage a bounce to the gap level at the 1200 range, that case would imply the 1060 range would be the most likely target for the next intermediate term low. We are holding our intermediate and longer term short positions on the SPX for now.

Since Oil sector may have trouble near term, we will hold off on new purchases until OIH tests the 88 range on lighter volume. We are putting on ENG on our watch list, support near 2.05.

To learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.

Nasdaq Composite:

On Monday the Nasdaq tested Friday's low on lighter volume and than closed above Friday's low creating a short term bullish sign. Resistance lies near the 1980 and may be the area were the next short term top materializes. The bigger trend is down on this index also. We will watch the 1980 area for a potential sell signal area. Flat for now.

GOLD Market:

"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate from our long term position in BGO.

On the last page of this report, you will find the "Rydex Precious Metal Fund". On this page at the bottom of the graph is a graph of the Cumulative Net Cash Flow. What we want to demonstrate is how Cumulative Net Cash Flow diverges at important turning points in this market. We have pointed out several turning points diverges (both bottoms and tops) denoted in red. The current diverge is pointed out with blue lines. The current divergence is a bullish one.

We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. Long PMU at average 1.12.

The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at -88 and oversold for near term.

The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .37 and near the bullish level.

The "5 day ARMS" close today at 6.14 and bullish for short term.

Conclusion: Bigger trend on the S&P and Nasdaq is down.

Longer Term Trend: Short SPX (S&P cash) on 4/12/05 at 1187.76.

Tim Ord

ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
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