The Ord Oracle February 18/05
by Tim Ord
March 09/05
Interview
with Ike Iossif on March 3 http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5
on returns for the S&P and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For
30 to 90 days horizon:
Flat.
For
monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes:
Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Top may form in March 2005.
Secrets
from profiting with Price and Volume. Learn
the trading rules I use that made me #5 in the S&P and #2 in Gold
in 2004 (By Timer Digest). April 9 & 10 at
the Denver Marriott tech Center. Click
on www.ord-oracle.comor
Call for sign-up (402) 486-0362.
What
to expect now:
On
Monday's commentary, we said, "What is interesting is the "Relative Strength
indicator" (RSI) on the NYSE index. On the Daily, Weekly
and Monthly time frames on the NYSE index is that the (RSI) is over 70%
(Overbought) on all time three frames. This is not to say the
NYSE can not move higher near term, It can, but now is not a good time
to add to position. When the RSI is over
70%, it usually implies a good time to start lighten up on positions.
We think a top could form somewhere between 1225 to 1250 area on
the S&P and we are in this range now." Since Monday the S&P
have back off. Today's decline
came on heavy volume and implies strength to the downside and a bearish
sign. We have two lines drawn
on the graph of the S&P 500 above, one from January high and one form
the mid February high. These two line
represent support where the market should have held on a pull back..
You can see that support was broken and broken on heavy volume. The most upside that
can be expected now is a test of the previous high on March 7 near the
1230. An ideal setup to trigger
a sell signal is a test of the March 7 high and if this test is accompanied
on reduced volume a sell signal would get triggered. The McClellan
Summation also has turned down and implies the trend is down.
Next week is Option expiration week, which usually has a bullish
bias. If a rally should materialize
we could get a bearish signal next week.
On 3/1/05 (intraday email
report), we bought IVAN at 2.60, We sold this position (3/9/05) today
at 3.08 for 18% gain. We may buy this
position back on the next pull back. We are putting on ENG
on our watch list, support near 2.05.
To
learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq
Composite:
The
Nasdaq should go back up and test the March 7 high near the 2100 level.
If the 2100 level is tested on lighter volume a bearish signal
could get triggered. Staying
flat for now.
GOLD
Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold
timer for 2004.
Bottom
was made on February 8 and the impulse wave up has begun. Duration of the current
rally phase could last tell November 2005 to January 2006.
We have today's commentary on the "Ord-Volume graph" below.
We double
our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price
at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75 (added to CBJ on 2/4/05
to bring average price to 2.75). Long NXG average of 2.26. Long PMU at average
1.12.
The
McClellan Oscillator closed today's at -105 and turned down the Summation
index.
The
“Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .45 and neutral.
The
"5 day ARMS" close today at 5.13 and neutral.
Conclusion:
Possible top may form in March.
Longer
Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. May close this position
at the March high.
Secrets
from profiting with Price and Volume. Come
learn the trading rules I use that made me #5 in the S&P and #2 in
Gold in 2004 (By Timer Digest). April 9 & 10 at
the Denver Marriott tech Center. Click on www.ord-oracle.com
or Call
for sign-up (402) 486-0362.
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362