The Ord Oracle January 27/05
by Tim Ord
January 27/05
Interview with Ike Iossif
on January 20 http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
Interview
with Leo Leydon For January 26 , http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html
-click archive.
"Timer
Digest"
has Tim Ord ranked #5
on returns for the S&P in 2004.
"Timer
Digest" has
ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold timer for 2004.
For
30 to 90 days horizon: Flat.
For monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring
purposes: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Possible target to old high
near 1550 level.
What
to expect now:
"Courtesy
of www.decisionpoint.com",
we have included two graphs of the NYSE, one on the weekly time frame
and one on the Monthly time frame. The first graph below
is of the weekly time frame and we discussed this graph in detail on yesterday's
report. In a nutshell, we said
that we are anticipating a pull back to support near the 6800 level over
the next week or two. The 6800 level equates
to the 1155 range on the S&P 500 and that range should hold as support.
The market should start
a bounce from that level as long as volume is light on the test of that
support area. The reason we are bullish
at the 6800 level (1155 on the S&P
500) is that on the second graph, (which is on a monthly time frame on
the NYSE), the rally in December 2004 tested the August 2000 high on increased
volume (volume comparience circled in red).
Tests of previous highs on increased volume means that high will
be at least tested if not broken sometime in the future.
Therefore, the market can pull back here but ultimately another
run at the December is coming. The most likely place
for the pull back to end is at the first support area and that support
area comes in near the 6800 level. So we will be watching
the 6800 level for a potential buy signal. If a bullish signal
does get triggered at the 6800 level on the NYSE, our first upside target
will be the old highs at 7250. If volume is heavy on
the run to 7250, we would expect the rally to continue higher.
If volume is light on the run to 7250 range, than that would spell
trouble, but more on that later. Short term the NYSE could
bounce into the FOMC meeting, which is next Tuesday and Wednesday, than
turn back down and go to our support target near the 6800 level.
We are
watching the "Oil Service" index (which looks bullish near term) and we
like HOFF at a little lower price. We'll send a report
if a buy signal is triggered on HOFF.
To learn
more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Sold 1/2 eght at 4.20
(60% gain) and 1/2 at 3.50 for 47% gain (stop at 3.50 was hit).
On 12/30, we bought SQNM at 1.36.
Support near 1.20 target near 4.50.
Nasdaq
Composite:
The
Nasdaq is showing more weakness than the other indexes (Nasdaq is heavy
in Tech stocks and is weak right now) and has not held support at the
2050 range. Next support
down comes in near the 1975 range. Staying flat this index.
GOLD
Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked
Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
We have
had a cycle for a low on the XAU to bottom in late January to early February
and we are entering this cycle now.
The reason we remain bullish on gold issues is that the "$DJUSPM"
index (mirrors what the $XAU does) in November 04 tested the previous
high of January 04 on increased volume. The same setup as the
NYSE is doing. A test of
a previous high on increased volume imply as some point the market will
rally back and at least test if not break the previous high.
Support comes in at the 50% retracement level, which is also where
the "Left shoulder" lies and that area comes in at the 84 range on this
index. Today the $DJUSPM" closed
at 84.35. We remain bullish on
Gold Issues.
We double
our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price
at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. Long NXG average of
2.26. We doubled our position in GSS on
(7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Gss is
not acting well for the moment. No change for now. Long
PMU at average 1.12.
The
McClellan Oscillator closed today's at -42 and oversold.
The
“Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .44 and in the neutral level.
Conclusion:
Support near 1155 on S&P and 1975 on Nasdaq.
Longer
Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Upside target to old
2000 highs near the 1550 level.
Tim Ord
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362