The Ord Oracle February 18/05
by Tim Ord
February 18/05
Interview
with Ike Iossif on February 4 http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
Interview
with Leo Leydon For February 16 , http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html
-click archive.
has Tim Ord ranked #5
on returns for the S&P and #2
in Gold for 2004.
For
30 to 90 days horizon:
Flat.
For
monitoring purposes:
Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer
Term Trend monitoring purposes:
Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Top may form in April 2005.
Secrets from profiting with Price and Volume. Learn the trading rules I use that made me #5 in the S&P and #2 in Gold in 2004 (By Timer Digest). April 9 & 10 at the Denver Marriott tech Center. Click on www.ord-oracle.com
What
to expect now:
We
have included a graph of the SPY (S&P 500 SPDRs) (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com).
You can see as the SPY rallied
form the late January low to it's current high, the volume gradually contracted. This condition shows
the force of the up-move is decreasing and a bearish sign.
If the SPY test the January 3 high at 121.76 and then closes below
that high and volume shrinks near 8% or greater against the January high
on that test, it will trigger a short term bearish signal.
This short term bearish signal would have a downside target down
to the previous high of mid January near the 119.50 range. To negate this possibility,
the volume needs to pickup nearly 60 million shares on the test of the
January 3 high. The SPY has not touched
the 121.76 area and therefore no signal has been triggered.
But if the 121.76 is tested and volume comes in near 55 million
shares or less, it will imply the S&P will stage a pull back.
If the SPY does generate a short term bearish signal, it would
only imply that a trading range has developed, where 119.5 is support
and 121.76 is resistance. Therefore we are
not expecting any serious damage here. The NYSE McClellan summation is
trending up and implies the short term trend is up and implies the 121.76
area will be at least tested. We will see how that
area is tested. We are staying
flat for now and watching the 121.76 on the SPY. On
the bigger time frame we think the market will work higher into late March
to early April where and intermediate term top may form.
To
learn more on "Ord-Volume" please visit http://www.ord-oracle.com/.
Nasdaq Composite:
The
Nasdaq uptrend is intact so far and could rally to the resistance zone
near the January 18 high at the 2106 area.
Volume was good yesterday when it broke to a minor new high for
the last couple weeks and implies it should head to the next higher high
to January 18 high of 2106. The Nasdaq McClellan
Oscillator is showing a short term negative divergence and implies the
short term up-trend may be weakening. If the Nasdaq Oscillator
goes into negative territory while the 2106 is tested on lighter volume
a short term bearish signal could get triggered.
If a sell signal gets triggered the next support lower comes in
near 2040 range. We will
be watching the 2106 range closely. Staying flat this index
for now.
GOLD
Market:
"Timer
Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2
gold
timer for 2004.
The
XAU and the "Dow Jones US Precious Metal" index triggered buy signals
on the Weekly charts last Friday. This buy signal may
last for 9 months or longer. We believe the gold
issues have turned the corner to the upside and the next impulse wave
to the upside has started.
We
double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average
price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75 (added to CBJ
on 2/4/05 to bring average price to 2.75). Long NXG average of 2.26. Sold GSS on 2/4/05 for 44%
loss and took proceeds and added to CBJ. Long PMU at average
1.12.
The
“Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .59 and near the bearish level.
The
"5 day ARMS" close today at 4.46 and neutral.
Conclusion:
Up-tend intact so far. Possible
top may form in April.
Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. May close this position at the April high.
Secrets
from profiting with Price and Volume. Come
learn the trading rules I use that made me #5 in the S&P and #2 in
Gold in 2004 (By Timer Digest). April 9 & 10 at
the Denver Marriott tech Center. Click on www.ord-oracle.com
or Call
for sign-up (402) 486-0362.
ord-oracle.com
17300 Van Dom Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
402 486 0362