The Ord Oracle January 06/05
by Tim Ord
January 06/05
Interview with Ike Iossif on December 9:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
Interview
with Leo Leydon For January 5, http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html
-click archive.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Per intraday
report on Friday, Sold long SPX (12/10/04) at 1188.00 for gain of 8.5%
and now flat. Long SPX (10/25/04)
at 1094.46. Sold long Nasdaq
(12/10/04) at 2128.07 for gain of 8.93% and now flat. Long Nasdaq (10/21/04)
at 1953.62.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96
on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes:
Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Possible target to old high near 1550
level.
What to expect
now:
The
"Bearish Rising Wedge" pattern that we have been talking about for the
last couple weeks appears to have been completed on December 31 and the
decline that follows has started.
"Rising Wedge" patterns have downside targets to where they began
and in the case of the S&P that would be near the 1160 range.
Notice that two bearish candlestick patterns called "Bearish Engulfing"
pattern was drawn near the highs (on the graph above) and helped to identify
the short term topping process.
Also the Volume did pick up on the decline that started Monday
and implies the energy has switched to the downside near term.
The McClellan Summation index is also heading down and implies
the trend is now for now. However
the McClellan Oscillator is nearing oversold levels near the -200 range
closing today at -213. We
will be looking for a positive divergence in the McClellan Oscillator
to help identify the next low, which we expect, may be near the 1160 range.
The larger time frame trend is up and will be looking to buy back long
on the S&P, probably between 1150 to 1170 area. The next potential run may take the
S&P near the 1320 range before find the next resistance zone. If this zone is hit in the April time
frame, which is also the 9 month cycle time frame, it would add to the
potential for a reversal. Sold
long SPX (12/10/04) at 1188.00 for gain of 8.5%.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume"
please visit www.ord-oracle.com.
Bought ISON on 12/2/04 at 4.00 and sold
1/2 at 4.33 for 8.23% gain. (12/21/04)
we sold the remaining 1/2 position at 6.00 for an average gain of 29%.
Sold 1/2 eght at 4.20 (60% gain) and have stop on remaining 1/2 position
at 3.50. On 12/30, we bought
SQNM at 1.36. Support near
1.20 target near 4.50.
Nasdaq Composite:
The Nasdaq also had a "Rising Wedge" pattern going into
the December 31 high and also drew a bearish candlestick pattern on Monday
called a "Bearish Engulfing" Pattern. The Nasdaq "Rising Wedge" pattern
has a downside target near the 2090 range.
Volume also picked up on decline that stared Monday and suggests
the energy has switched to the downside short term. We may end up with a bullish signal near
the 2090 to 2050 ranges and establish another long position. Sold long Nasdaq (12/10/04) at 2128.07
for gain of 8.93%.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the
top
gold timer for the last 12 months ending 11/12/04.
We have stated in the
past that the XAU may be drawing a "Head and Shoulders" bottom, where
the "Head" is the May 10 low near the 77 level.
Normally the Left Shoulder and Right Shoulder are symmetric
in price and time. It took
five months to complete the Left Shoulder and may take five months to
complete the Right shoulder, which would extend to late January early
February. The price low should be near current levels
on the XAU according to "Price Relative To Gold" indicator and "Cash level"
divergences on the Rydex Precious Metal fund. A lot the time anniversaries are important
turn dates. Last year top
came in January 6 and tomorrow
is also that date and could mark an important low.
We double our positions
in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70.
Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. Long NXG average of 2.26. We
doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04)
at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Gss is not acting well for
the moment. No change for
now. Long PMU at average 1.12.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator
closed at .34 and near the buy level.
“Five day ARMS” indicator
closed at 7.24 and in the buy area.
Conclusion: Support near
1160 on S&P and 2090 to 2050 on Nasdaq.
Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Upside target to old 2000 highs near the 1550 level.
ord-oracle.com
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