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Central Banks now Buying Gold

 

by Jason Hommel
12/11/05

The Russian Central bank is buying up to 1000 tonnes of gold, to double its gold holdings from 500 tonnes, most of which, 377 tonnes, is lent out.  

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051128/42241821.html

The news of Russian central bank gold buying is getting more press.  Either the Russian buying, or the news of the Russians buying, is likely responsible for the recent run up in gold prices.

Analysis:  The Russians have $165 billion in their central bank reserves.
500 tonnes x 32,152 oz/tonne = 16,076,000 oz.  That's 16 million oz.
At $524/oz., 500 tonnes will be worth $8,423,824,000  That's $8.4 billion dollars.

That's not much money, and it's a lot of gold!

The Russians are only planning on putting 5% of their central bank reserves into gold.  

Why is this such a big deal?  The world has lots of dollars & not much gold.  

Five hundred tonnes is huge in the gold world.  World mine supply is a mere 2500 tonnes annually.  Total gold mined in all of human history is a mere 150,000 tonnes.  Source: gold.org

To put 16 million ounces of gold into context, as to how much that is, Barrick, the second largest gold mining company in the world, hedged, that is, presold, about 13 million oz. of gold at prices around $330/oz.  At $524/oz., that's a loss of about $2.5 billion dollars.  Barrick could go bankrupt from this "gold debt".  If you own Barrick, or any of the other hedged gold miners such as Placer Dome, I strongly recommend that you sell them, and buy unhedged stocks, or exploration companies, or physical metal, instead.  Barrick can no longer afford to buy 13 million oz. of gold to settle this gold debt, because it would take more cash than Barrick has.

However, buying 16 million oz. of gold will be no problem for the Russians.  They have $165 billion dollars to diversify out of.

Let me continue to put 500 tonnes (16 mil. oz.) into perspective:

European central banks agreed to limit their gold selling to 400 tonnes per year, back in 1999.  At this announcement back in the fall of 1999, it caused a $70 spike upwards in the gold price, and you can see this spike on any gold chart.  Why the spike?  Because people realized that the gold selling (and gold lending) by central banks was going to be slowing down.  And it has.  

And now it has reversed, and is turning into central bank gold buying.

Argentina, South Korea, & South Africa are also gold buyers now.

And now, China, and perhaps all of Asia!

Here's a news article on that:
Asian central banks likely to increase gold reserves!
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200512/01/eng20051201_224958.html

The official China news source, the "People's Daily Online", reported that "Asian central banks are likely to increase gold reserves."

Quote:  "Russia, Argentina and South Africa have decided this month to increase their gold reserves, which reversed the selling trend in six years by world central banks, especially European ones.  It is only a question of time for Asian central banks to follow and buy in gold: they hold 2.6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and able to change more of them into gold as a hedge against US dollar falls."

So, how much gold can $2.6 trillion U.S. dollars, held by Asian central banks, buy?  More gold than exists in the world!  Remember, all the gold ever mined in the history of the world is 150,000 tonnes.

Let's convert that to ounces, shall we?

all the gold ever mined in the history of the world:
150,000 tonnes x 32,152oz./tonne = 4.8 billion ounces.   
At current prices of $524/oz., that's 2.5 trillion dollars!  

So, what we have is the Russians buying about $8.4 billion worth of gold, and this is causing the gold price to move up.

And now, Asia is going to spend a portion of $2.6 trillion, that's TRILLION, or $2,600 billion, on gold?

Where do you think gold prices are headed?  At this point, guessing a final top is ridiculous, but you can know for certain that in the coming months and years, gold is going to go way, way, way up from here.  Probably well beyond $10,000 to $30,000/oz.

And Asia's $2.6 trillion is nothing compared to the size of the bond markets.  We have $22 trillion in U.S. bonds that could also be sold for gold.  After all, big money is FORCED to seek out returns, and protect itself from being devalued.  
And Japan alone has about $10 trillion dollars worth of yen that could also buy gold.

What will spook the bond market?  Who knows, but it may well be the default of General Motors on almost $300 billion worth of bonds. 

I saw Kudlow on CNBC this afternoon, who was mystified by the rise in the gold price.  He asked a woman on the show, "Would you be selling gold now?"  She responded, "Yes, I would be selling gold now... but I don't have any gold to sell."  Classic!

Kudlow concluded that with the new computer age, and with free trade, both pushing down wages and consumer prices, that he couldn't see inflation like we had under Jimmy Carter.  What Kudlow fails to realize is that inflation is not rising wages and consumer prices.  Inflation is the creation of unbacked paper money, which has happened in the past that is fraud that will be revealed. 

Kudlow was also saying "how could the bond market be wrong", given low interest rates, especially in the long bonds, which is now an "inverted yield curve".  What Kudlow fails to realize is that acorns can grow into big oak trees, but oak trees cannot grow to the moon.  There is an upper limit on growth, especially in big, big things, such as the $22 trillion bond market.  It has to go down in value, by definition, if you study compound growth rates.  You just can't keep compounding liquid wealth (that competes with gold) that has overgrown the limits of gold, even if you pretend that gold does not exist.  Because other people may not choose to live in fantasy land, and because gold does exist, and because other people (that you may do business with) will choose gold, such as all of Asia.

The fact is that bonds and gold are competing asset classes.  With gold heading up about 20% per year now for 4 years since 2001 from $255/oz., and no top in sight, why would any sane person choose to hold bonds paying 4%, when inflation is about 7-8%?  Bonds are guaranteed to go down in value, and will be forced to buy gold for the returns.  It's as simple as that. 

Bonds lose money in two ways:  Bonds ARE NOW losing value, as the interest rate remains low, since the interest rate is below the rate of inflation.  As interest rates MUST RISE, bond values will go down even further.

Now, please don't misunderstand me.  Don't go out and buy gold tomorrow, based on what I've written, unless you have well over a billion dollars to invest.  If you have less than that, you'd probably do better to buy silver, instead, due to the feared silver shortage caused by 60 years of industrial consumption.  A billionaire would have trouble buying that much silver.  As gold will go up, silver stands to go up much faster, at a greater percentage rate. 

Silver is like the acorn, gold is like a young sapling.  The acorn will grow at a much faster rate, and in the end, they may be both the same size!

I have tried to get on TV several times, to discuss these kinds of issues, and publicize the story of the silver shortage. 

My press release alone, below, cost me $1500 to send out!
Silver Users Fear Silver Shortage
Important Article October 27, 2005

I attended the National Publicity Summit in New York last year.  It cost me $5000 to get in--a whole bag of silver!  I spent tens of thousands of dollars on various media consultants and media training who teach you to get publicity without a publicity agent. 

What I learned is that the media is somewhat like me--very busy.  Now, many mining companies pitch me on why I should cover them.  And I'm supposed to pitch the media on why they should publicize my silver stock report.  It requires persistence, patience, and building relationships. But I have trouble finding the time to do that, in addition to all my own research, investing activities, writing, online promoting, and attending mining shows.  So, in 2006, I plan to cut back on attending shows, and I will concentrate more efforts on the internet and getting media exposure.

I did get a referral to a PR guy, who costs $6000/month, and $36,000 up front for 6 months, just to get started.  That's rather typical.  Or $10,000/month for 6 months.  Should I pay that?   I am spending about $4000/month total on about 6-7 internet ads.  But before I throw away $30,000 to $60,000 for a PR guy who may, or may not, get me "free" publicity... money that could be better spent on a silver stock (like Canadian Zinc)... Maybe some of my readers can help me get on TV?  If any of you have any media connections, and can introduce me to a wider audience, please contact me:  j@silverstockreport.com

Currently, this email list goes out to about 17,300 emails, with about 5000 people opening the email sent.

Speaking of Canadian Zinc... This is the name of the Second company, out of 4, that I have been promoting lately...   To get the names of the 1st and 4th companies, sign up to "look at my portfolio" at silverstockreport.com

CZN.TO CZICF.PK Canadian Zinc
http://www.canadianzinc.com/
87.9 mil shares fully diluted (Nov. 2005)
Share price: $.48 Cdn x .86 US/Cdn = $.42 US
Market Cap $36 million, U.S.
Cash on hand: $14 million, U.S.
Buildings & Infrastructure: $100 million, U.S.
Value of the minerals in the ground: $3.7 billion, U.S.
Value of the rock: $336/ton!
Value percentage of each mineral compared to the others:
53% zinc, 27% lead, 14% silver, 6% copper. (out of 100%)
(The ore is actually 12% zinc, 10% lead,  6 oz. of silver per tonne!)
Total silver resources: 70 million ounces, and the exploration potential could double that.
Zinc prices continue to hit new highs at $.82/lb, and zinc inventories are dropping.
The company needs to raise about $20 million to start mining, and has 5 out of 6 permits needed.
In the last two years, the stock hit a high of about $2/share, and they raised money as high as $1/share.  Thus, the stock is a real deal at under $.75, and could rise to about $2/share again if people get bullish on commodity stocks again.

First company:  
Market Cap: $34 million, U.S.
Cash on hand: $<$1 million.
Has a lease:  The value of the reserves, the minerals in the ground: $45 billion, U.S.
Has a positive Feasibility Study showing that about 85% of the value of the ore will be mined at a profit!  That's 85% of $45 billion, or $38 billion! 
The company needs to raise about $400 million to unlock that $38,000 million in profit!
To get the name of this company, sign up to "look at my portfolio" at silverstockreport.com

Second company: CZN.TO Canadian Zinc--now being promoted.

Third company:  SRLM.PK Sterling Mining--previously promoted

Fourth company: 
Market Cap: 42 million, U.S.
Cash on hand: $<$1 million.
Owns an exploration property that may be the largest copper porphyry in the world, located in Montana, U.S.A.  Has several of the largest mining companies in the world currently very interested.  Has no interest in selling out too soon, and plans to sell at a high premium in a few years after doing a bit more exploration. 
This stock is my largest holding.
To get the name of this company, sign up to "look at my portfolio" at silverstockreport.com
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David has been studying the silver market most of his life and his web site provides a great deal of free information. He was asked to write the Ten Rules of Silver Investing, which contains some real wisdom. For several years David only allowed his paid subscribers access to this information. However, he recently has upgraded his free list and is now providing this information to you.
 
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Excerpt from: Bible Verses on how to Manage Money
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/goldismoney/biblemoney.html

Don't be lazy, you must work.  Laziness leads to poverty. 

The Bible tells us to not only work hard, but to work efficiently, to not waste time!  Therefore, work hard to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the work that you do!  Or, seek to do the work that is most efficient, most effective and most productive.

Free & Honest Trade increases men's efficiency, because men can specialize & become experts at what they produce, and thus, produce more.


Jason Hommel
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